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2022 TipTop 25 Week Nine

Arkansas is picked first out of my hat for 2022

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Arkansas was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot. Sadly for the Razorbacks, they were unimpressive enough in their opener that they fell out of the top slot immediately, and by now they have fallen all the way out of the TipTop 25.

As the games are played, I will be ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked entirely based on what they do this season and, for the first half of the season at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (as well as where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that all FCS teams are at a lower power level, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. Similarly, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Oklahoma had initially replaced Arkansas at #1, but Ohio State took over the top slot after Oklahoma lost to Kansas State on September 24. Ohio State has been very impressive, winning every game by more than a touchdown, but last week Clemson passed them up anyway, because Clemson had beaten 4 ranked opponents by then, Ohio State none. However, it is a close horse race at the top, and this week we have another change at #1, as covered below.

TipTop 25 After Week Nine Games

As stated above, Clemson had replaced Ohio State at #1 last week, but this week the Buckeyes regain the throne (for now). There are 2 reasons for this. The first is that last week, Ohio State had no wins against ranked opponents, and this week they do, having just beaten 6-2 Penn State (now #8) 44-31 on the road. The second reason is that a couple of Clemson's better wins, over Wake Forest and Syracuse, look a lot less impressive this week, as both of those teams were routed by unranked opponents on Saturday. And Clemson barely beat both teams. Clemson still has 4 wins over ranked teams, and that is still very impressive, possibly even still worth a #1 ranking. However, those wins include an overtime victory over #11 and a pair of 6-point wins over #16 and #18, and those close wins are more the performance of a #6-10 team than a #1 team. Ohio State has beaten every opponent by more than a touchdown. Furthermore, OSU had been rated #16 in the preseason TipTop 25, while Clemson had not been ranked in the preseason top 50.

Similarly, we're likewise dropping Clemson behind 8-0 Georgia, who has also performed much better than Clemson, and who was also rated much higher in the preseason. The latest rankings:


#1
Ohio State 8-0
#2 Georgia 8-0
#3 Clemson 8-0
#4 Texas Christian 8-0
#5 Michigan 8-0
#6 Tennessee 8-0
#7 Alabama 7-1
#8 Penn State 6-2
#9 Oregon 7-1
#10 UCLA 7-1
#11 Wake Forest 6-2
#12 Tulane 7-1
#13 Illinois 7-1
#14 Kansas State 6-2
#15 Oklahoma State 6-2
#16 Syracuse 6-2
#17 North Carolina State 6-2
#18 Florida State 5-3
#19 Louisiana State 6-2
#20 Mississippi 8-1
#21 Kentucky 5-3
#22 Mississippi State 5-3
#23 Florida 4-4
#24 Utah 6-2
#25 Southern Cal 7-1

Notes on Other Changes to This Week's TipTop 25

We're moving Georgia up past Clemson, as covered above, but that's not the whole story here. 8-0 Texas Christian had also been rated higher than Georgia last week, and obviously we're moving Georgia ahead of TCU as well. This is because Georgia has performed better than TCU (Georgia 1 close win over an unrated opponent, TCU 2), and also because last week, TCU had a win over a top 10 opponent and Georgia did not, and this week, that situation is reversed.

Tennessee had not been ranked in the preseason top 50, but at this point their performance has become too spectacular to ignore (their latest effort being a 44-6 demolishing of #21 Kentucky), so we're moving the Volunteers up past Penn State, and while we're at it, we're pulling Alabama up the rankings with them, as Alabama's only loss came to Tennessee, and it was very close.

The aforementioned upset losses that 6-2 Wake Forest (now #11) and 6-2 Syracuse (#16) each took to unranked teams this week not only cause those teams to fall out of the top 10, but their upset losses also trigger a cascade of other teams to drop in the ratings. This is due to victory chains: Syracuse has previously beaten North Carolina State, who has beaten Florida State, who has beaten Louisiana State, who has beaten Mississippi, who has beaten Kentucky, who has beaten Mississippi State and Florida, and Florida has beaten Utah, who has beaten Southern Cal, who has beaten Oregon State. All of those teams drop in the rankings due to the upset losses Wake and 'Cuse took.

6-2 Kansas State had been unranked last week, but they shoot into the rankings at #14 this week after embarrassing then-#7 Oklahoma State 48-0. 7-1 Tulane, who has previously beaten KSU, shoots up into the rankings along with the Wildcats.

7-1 Illinois has not beaten a ranked or nearly-ranked team yet, and they have taken an upset loss to a losing team (Indiana), but we're bringing them into the TipTop 25 this week at #13 because at this point, a goodly number of our top 25 teams have taken a loss to an unranked opponent, and Illinois had been ranked #18 in the preseason ratings, higher than most of the teams currently in our top 25. And while Illinois has played a ridiculously easy schedule, they have performed very well against it. Just 1 of their wins has been close (touchdown or less), while Kansas State, for example, has posted 2 close wins over unranked opponents.

Finally, we're dropping Arkansas back behind Southern Cal, and out of the TipTop 25. That's because South Carolina, who had been ranked #22 last week, was upset by unranked Missouri this week, sending the Gamecocks out of the list. That hurts Arkansas, as their best win had come over South Carolina. But Arkansas was also hurt by Cincinnati's upset loss this week, as the Razorbacks' other big win had come over the Bearcats.

Close to the Top 25

These teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Oregon State
#27 Arkansas
#28 Louisville
#29 Notre Dame
#30 North Carolina
#31
Washington
#32 Liberty
#33 Troy
#34 South Alabama
#35 East Carolina
#36 Central Florida
#37
Cincinnati
#38 South Carolina
#39
Purdue
#40 Maryland

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