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2021 TipTop 25 Week Nine

Utah State is picked first out of my hat for 2021

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Utah State was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot. Unfortunately, the Aggies were unimpressive enough in their opener that they slipped down out of the top spot after their opener.

As the games are played, I will be ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked entirely based on what they do this season and, for the first few weeks at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that all FCS teams are at a lower power level, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. Similarly, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Georgia Still #1

MS Paint of a Georgia football player

Georgia was not randomly selected from my hat before the season, so they were not ranked in the preseason top 25, or even top 50. They entered the top 25 at #13 in week 2 due to beating then-#22 UAB 56-7. But because they had struggled to beat Clemson in the first week, and because Clemson played poorly in week 3, Georgia was dragged down with Clemson and out of the top 25 again. They rose back into the top 25 the next week as teams fell out of their way, and in week 5 they smashed then-#18 Arkansas 37-0 to move all the way up to #6. Two more smashings of rated teams put them all the way to the top. This week they smashed unrated Florida 34-7.

TipTop 25 After Week Nine Games

For the fourth week in a row, exactly 4 teams from the previous week's TipTop 25 suffered upset losses, and that gives us a 4-way tie for the fewest upsets of the season. So our top 25 has been pretty stable for about a month now. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Georgia 8-0 1 Won 34-7 over #38 Florida in Jacksonville
#2 Cincinnati 8-0 2
 Won 31-12 at Tulane
#3 Oregon 7-1 4
 Won 52-29 at Colorado
#4 Ohio State 7-1 6 Won 33-24 over #19 Penn State
#5 Oklahoma State 7-1 9 Won 55-3 over Kansas
#6 Baylor 7-1 5 Won 31-24 over #41 Texas
#7 Michigan State 8-0 11
 Won 37-33 over #12 Michigan (now #9)
#8 Wake Forest 8-0 10 Won 45-7 over Duke
#9 Michigan 7-1 12 Lost 37-33 at #11 Michigan State (now #7)
#10 Oklahoma 9-0 13 Won 52-21 over Texas Tech
#11 Notre Dame 7-1 17 Won 44-34 over North Carolina
#12
 Alabama
 7-1
 15
 Did not play
#13 Wisconsin 5-3 22 Won 27-7 over #7 Iowa (now #16)
#14 Minnesota 6-2 24 Won 41-14 at Northwestern
#15 Purdue 5-3 23 Won 28-23 at Nebraska
#16 Iowa 6-2 7 Lost 27-7 at #22 Wisconsin (now #13)
#17 Iowa State 5-3 8 Lost 38-31 at unrated West Virginia
#18 Kansas State 5-3 14 Won 31-12 over Texas Christian
#19 Penn State 5-3
 19 Lost 33-24 at #6 Ohio State (now #4)
#20 Auburn 6-2 20 Won 31-20 over #16 Mississippi (now #21)
#21 Mississippi 6-2 16 Lost 31-20 at #20 Auburn
#22 Arkansas 5-3 21 Did not play
#23 Fresno State
7-2 29 Won 30-20 at #3 San Diego State (now #24)
#24 San Diego State 7-1 3 Lost 30-20 to #29 Fresno State (now #23)
#25 Brigham Young 6-2 25 Won 21-19 at #38 Washington State

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

Iowa, ranked #7 last week, and Iowa State, ranked #8, both took big upset losses this week, sending them tumbling down in the ratings. Last week, I had Iowa State ranked ahead of Oklahoma State, whom they had just beaten. However, due to the Cyclones' upset loss to West Virginia this week, Oklahoma State should no longer be ranked behind them, and not only that, but freed from ISU's backside, Oklahoma State can now be moved up ahead of Baylor, as OSU had previously beaten Baylor 24-14. Also, because Baylor was hurt by ISU's upset loss (ISU being their best win), I moved Ohio State ahead of Baylor (and, of course, Ohio State also remains ranked ahead of Oklahoma State). As yet another effect of ISU's upset loss, Kansas State, who had previously lost to ISU, fell back in the ratings a bit with the 'Clones.

At this point, the only rated team Alabama has beaten is Mississippi, who took an upset loss and falls in the ratings this week. That hurts Alabama, enabling Notre Dame, who now has 2 wins over rated teams, to slip by them this week.

Now that Iowa has fallen back behind Purdue, the Boilermakers' win over the Hawkeyes is not nearly so impressive as it had been, and Minnesota, who has previously beaten Purdue, moves ahead of them. Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin all go shooting up in the ratings thanks to Wisconsin's pummeling of Iowa this week.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Nevada
#27 Utah State
#28 Air Force
#29 Texas A&M
#30 Texas
#31 Mississippi State
#32 Louisiana
#33 Appalachian State
#34 Coastal Carolina
#35 Boise State
#36 Utah
#37 Washington State
#38 Arizona State
#39 UCLA
#40 Kentucky
#41 Louisiana State
#42 Florida
#43 Texas-San Antonio

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This week we have just one game pitting TipTop 25 teams against each other, #7 Michigan State at #15 Purdue. But we do have a bunch of games that feature a rated team playing a nearly-rated team: #41 LSU at #12 Alabama, #30 Texas at #17 Iowa State, #20 Auburn at #29 Texas A&M, #31 Mississippi State at #22 Arkansas, and #35 Boise State at #23 Fresno State. In addition, #43 Texas-San Antonio visits 6-2 UTEP. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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