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2021 TipTop 25 Week Eight

Utah State is picked first out of my hat for 2021

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Utah State was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot. Unfortunately, the Aggies were unimpressive enough in their opener that they slipped down out of the top spot after their opener.

As the games are played, I will be ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked entirely based on what they do this season and, for the first few weeks at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that all FCS teams are at a lower power level, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. Similarly, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Georgia Still #1

Georgia was not randomly selected from my hat before the season, so they were not ranked in the preseason top 25, or even top 50. They entered the top 25 at #13 in week 2 due to beating then-#22 UAB 56-7. But because they had struggled to beat Clemson in the first week, and because Clemson played poorly in week 3, Georgia was dragged down with Clemson and out of the top 25 again. They rose back into the top 25 the next week as teams fell out of their way, and in week 5 they smashed then-#18 Arkansas 37-0 to move all the way up to #6. Two more smashings of now-rated teams over the following 2 weeks put them all the way to the top.

TipTop 25 After Week Eight Games

For the third week in a row, only 4 teams from the previous week's TipTop 25 suffered upset losses; these last 3 weeks are tied for the fewest upsets of the season thus far. So our top 25 has been pretty stable for almost a month now. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Georgia	7-0	1	Did not play
#2	Cincinnati	7-0	3	Won 27-20 at Navy
#3	San Diego State	7-0	6	Won 20-14 at #33 Air Force
#4	Oregon	6-1	7	Won 34-31 at #26 UCLA
#5	Baylor	6-1	5	Did not play
#6	Ohio State	6-1	8	Won 54-7 at Indiana
#7	Iowa	6-1	9	Did not play
#8	Iowa State	5-2	10	Won 24-21 over #4 Oklahoma State (now #9)
#9	Oklahoma State	6-1	4	Lost 24-21 at #10 Iowa State (now #8)
#10	Wake Forest	7-0	11	Won 70-56 at Army
#11	Michigan State	7-0	12	Did not play
#12	Michigan	7-0	13	Won 33-7 over Northwestern
#13	Oklahoma	8-0	14	Won 35-23 at Kansas
#14	Kansas State	4-3	15	Won 25-24 at Texas Tech
#15	Alabama	7-1	17	Won 52-24 over #37 Tennessee
#16	Mississippi	6-1	18	Won 31-17 over #27 Louisiana State
#17	Notre Dame	6-1	39	Won 31-16 over Southern Cal
#18	Kentucky	6-1	21	Did not play
#19	Penn State	5-2	16	Lost 20-18 in OT to unrated Illinois
#20	Auburn	5-2	19	Did not play
#21	Arkansas	5-3	20	Won 45-3 over an FCS team
#22	Wisconsin	4-3	Unrated	Won 30-13 at #41 Purdue (now #23)
#23	Purdue	4-3	41	Lost 30-13 to unrated Wisconsin (now #22)
#24	Minnesota	5-2	40	Won 34-16 over Maryland
#25	Brigham Young	6-2	22	Won 21-19 at #38 Washington State

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

Coastal Carolina had been ranked #2 last week, but this week they were upset by unranked Appalachian State, and that knocks them all the way out of the top 25 because they did not have a win over a quality opponent. Penn State was also upset by an unrated team this week, but they remain in the rankings at #19 because they have previously beaten #20 Auburn. Still, PSU lost some ground due to their upset loss, and Auburn fell back a bit with them. Arkansas was also negatively affected, as they have previously been beaten by Auburn.

Baylor was passed up by a couple of teams this week because their loss to Oklahoma State hurts them more now that Oklahoma State has been beaten and knocked back in the rankings.

Oregon State's upset win over Utah, who had been #22 last week, has caused a big change at the bottom of the ratings. This is largely because Oregon State (who is now just outside the top 25, at #26) had previously lost to Purdue. Purdue has been beaten by Wisconsin, who has been beaten by Notre Dame, and all 3 of those teams enter the top 25. 6-1 Notre Dame has only lost to #2 Cincinnati. They have wins over Purdue and Wisconsin, both now ranked, while Kentucky has no wins over ranked teams, so I have moved Notre Dame ahead of Kentucky. All 3 of Wisconsin's losses have come to ranked teams, and the same is true of Purdue. Minnesota has beaten Purdue, but they have also taken an ugly upset loss to unrated Bowling Green, and Purdue has a huge upset win over #7 Iowa, so while Minnesota comes into the top 25, they remain ranked behind Purdue. Purdue was ranked #43 in the preseason, Minnesota #28.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Oregon State
#27 Utah
#28 Arizona State
#29 Fresno State
#30 Nevada
#31 Boise State
#32 Utah State
#33 Air Force
#34 Washington State
#35 UCLA
#36 Stanford
#37 Louisiana State
#38 Florida
#39 Texas A&M
#40 Mississippi State
#41 Texas
#42 Louisiana
#43 Appalachian State
#44 Coastal Carolina
#45 Pittsburgh
#46 Tennessee
#47 Southern Methodist
#48 Texas-San Antonio
#49 UTEP

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This week we have a big 4 games pitting TipTop 25 teams against each other!-- #19 Penn State at #6 Ohio State, #7 Iowa at #22 Wisconsin, #12 Michigan at #11 Michigan State, and #16 Mississippi at #20 Auburn. And we have another 4 games that feature a rated team playing a nearly-rated team:#38 Florida vs. #1 Georgia in Jacksonville, #29 Fresno State at #3 San Diego State, #41 Texas at #5 Baylor, and #18 Kentucky at #40 Mississippi State. In addition, #35 UCLA visits #27 Utah, #34 Washington State travels to #28 Arizona State, and #47 SMU plays at 6-1 Houston. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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