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2021 TipTop 25 Week Seven

Utah State is picked first out of my hat for 2021

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Utah State was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot. Unfortunately, the Aggies were unimpressive enough in their opener that they slipped down out of the top spot after their opener.

As the games are played, I will be ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked entirely based on what they do this season and, for the first few weeks at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that all FCS teams are at a lower power level, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. Similarly, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Our New #1

For the fourth straight week, we have a new team taking over the #1 slot, and as you can tell from the MS Painting above, that team is Georgia. Georgia had been #4 last week, but at that time they had just 1 win over a top 25 opponent, and this week they have 3. That's because this week they not only beat Kentucky (#18 last week) 30-13, but Auburn, whom they had previously beaten 34-10, won 38-23 at Arkansas (#23), moving Auburn into the top 25. Arkansas, who remains ranked this week, is the 3rd rated team Georgia has beaten. Coastal Carolina, #1 last week, and Cincinnati, #3, have beaten no rated opponents, so I moved Georgia past both teams. Iowa, who had been #2 last week, was upset by unrated Purdue this week, knocking them out of the way.

Georgia was not randomly selected from my hat before the season, so they were not ranked in the preseason top 25, or even top 50. They entered the top 25 at #13 in week 2 due to beating then-#22 UAB 56-7. But because they had struggled to beat Clemson in the first week, and because Clemson played poorly in week 3, Georgia was dragged down with Clemson and out of the top 25 again. They rose back into the top 25 the next week as teams fell out of their way, and in week 5 they smashed then-#18 Arkansas 37-0 to move all the way up to #6. Two more smashings of now-rated teams since then have put them all the way to the top.

TipTop 25 After Week Seven Games

For the second week in a row, only 4 teams from the previous week's TipTop 25 suffered upset losses, tying last week for the fewest this season. Our top 25 is finally stabilizing. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Georgia	7-0	4	Won 30-13 over #18 Kentucky (now #21)
#2	Coastal Carolina	6-0	1	Did not play
#3	Cincinnati	6-0	3	Won 56-21 over Central Florida
#4	Oklahoma State	6-0	5	Won 32-24 at Texas
#5	Baylor	6-1	6	Won 38-24 over #24 BYU (now #22)
#6	San Diego State	6-0	8	Won 19-13 in OT at San Jose State
#7	Oregon	5-1	9	Won 24-17 over California
#8	Ohio State	5-1	10	Did not play
#9	Iowa	6-1	2	Lost 24-7 to unrated Purdue (now #41)
#10	Iowa State	4-2	7	Won 33-20 at #15 Kansas State
#11	Wake Forest	6-0	11	Did not play
#12	Michigan State	7-0	12	Won 20-15 at Indiana
#13	Michigan	6-0	13	Did not play
#14	Oklahoma	7-0	14	Won 52-31 over TCU
#15	Kansas State	3-3	15	Lost 33-20 to #7 Iowa State (now #10)
#16	Penn State	5-1	16	Did not play
#17	Alabama	6-1	17	Won 49-9 at Mississippi State
#18	Mississippi	5-1	22	Won 31-26 at #21 Tennessee (now #37)
#19	Auburn	5-2	Unrated	Won 38-23 at #23 Arkansas (now #20)
#20	Arkansas	4-3	23	Lost 38-23 to unrated Auburn (now #19)
#21	Kentucky	6-1	18	Lost 30-13 at #4 Georgia (now #1)
#22	Brigham Young	5-2	24	Lost 38-24 at #6 Baylor (now #5)
#23	Utah	4-2	25	Won 35-21 over #26 Arizona State (now #24)
#24	Arizona State	5-2	26	Lost 35-21 at #25 Utah (now #23)
#25	Fresno State	5-2	27	Won 17-0 at Wyoming

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

Iowa's upset loss to unranked Purdue not only knocked them back from #2 to #9, but because Iowa had previously beaten Iowa State, ISU falls back with them, from #7 to #10.

Florida had been #19 last week, but unranked LSU surprised them 49-42 this week, knocking the Gators out of the top 25. But this upset had a much bigger impact on the top 25 than that. Because Kentucky's best win had come over Florida, Kentucky's rating is hurt by Florida falling out of the rankings, enabling 3 teams to pass the Wildcats up. Tennessee, #21 last week, had previously been routed 38-14 by Florida, so they fall out of the rankings. And finally, Pittsburgh, #20 last week, had posted only one quality win, a close call at Tennessee, so obviously they now have no quality wins, and as a result, they fall out of the rankings along with the Volunteers.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 UCLA
#27 Louisiana State
#28 Florida
#29 Stanford
#30 Nevada
#31 Boise State
#32 Utah State
#33 Air Force
#34 Mississippi State
#35 Texas A&M
#36 Pittsburgh
#37 Tennessee
#38 Washington State
#39 Notre Dame
#40 Minnesota
#41 Purdue
#42 Southern Methodist
#43 Texas-San Antonio
#44 North Carolina State
#45 Clemson
#46 UTEP

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This week we have but one game pitting TipTop 25 teams against each other, #4 Oklahoma State at #10 Iowa State. But we have a bunch of games that feature a rated team playing a nearly-rated team: #6 San Diego State at #33 Air Force (6-1), #7 Oregon at #26 UCLA, #37 Tennessee at #17 Alabama, #27 Louisiana State at #18 Mississippi, #22 Brigham Young at #38 Washington State, and #30 Nevada at #25 Fresno State. In addition, #45 Clemson travels to #36 Pittsburgh. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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