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2021 TipTop 25 Week Six

Utah State is picked first out of my hat for 2021

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Utah State was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot. Unfortunately, the Aggies were unimpressive enough in their opener that they slipped down out of the top spot after their opener.

As the games are played, I will be ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked entirely based on what they do this season and, for the first few weeks at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that all FCS teams are at a lower power level, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. Similarly, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Our New #1

MS Paint of a Coastal Carolina football player in 2021

Our previous #1, Michigan, struggled to win at unranked Nebraska 32-29, which alone would have knocked the Wolverines out of the top spot, but in addition, both of the ranked teams that Michigan had beaten, Western Michigan and Rutgers, were upset this week and knocked out of the top 25, leaving Michigan without a quality win. Our previous #2, Alabama, was unable to take advantage of the situation, as they were upset by unranked Texas A&M this week. So we are left with previous #3 Coastal Carolina to ascend to the throne.

Coastal Carolina was plucked from my hat 12th, so of course they were ranked #12 in the preseason, and that high ranking is the primary reason they are #1 today. Their schedule has been lousy, and it will not be getting better, but aside from one close win at Buffalo, Coastal Carolina has performed quite impressively. Iowa and Cincinnati are both very close to meriting the #1 slot, as Iowa has beaten 2 ranked teams, and Cincinnati has won all of their games by more than a touchdown, but neither team was ranked in the top 50 in the preseason, so for now we will keep Coastal Carolina just ahead of them.

TipTop 25 After Week Six Games

Only 4 teams from the previous week's TipTop 25 suffered upset losses, the fewest this season, so perhaps our top 25 is getting close to stabilizing. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Coastal Carolina 6-0 3 Won 52-20 at Arkansas State
#2 Iowa 6-0 4
 Won 23-20 over #31 Penn State (now #16)
#3 Cincinnati 5-0 5
 Won 52-3 over Temple
#4 Georgia 6-0 6 Won 34-10 at Auburn
#5 Oklahoma State 5-0 14 Did not play
#6 Baylor 5-1 15 Won 45-20 over West Virginia
#7 Iowa State 3-2 16 Did not play
#8 San Diego State 5-0 18 Won 31-7 over New Mexico
#9 Oregon 4-1 9 Did not play
#10 Ohio State 5-1 10 Won 66-17 over Maryland
#11 Wake Forest 6-0 13 Won 40-37 in OT at Syracuse
#12
 Michigan State 6-0
 30
 Won 31-13 at #11 Rutgers (now unrated)
#13 Michigan 6-0 1 Won 32-29 at Nebraska
#14 Oklahoma
 6-0 21 Won 55-48 over Texas in Dallas
#15 Kansas State 3-2 22 Did not play
#16 Penn State 5-1 31 Lost 23-20 at #4 Iowa (now #2)
#17 Alabama 5-1 2 Lost 41-38 at unrated Texas A&M
#18 Kentucky 6-0 26 Won 42-21 over Louisiana State
#19 Florida 4-2
 27 Won 42-0 over Vanderbilt
#20 Pittsburgh 4-1 8 Did not play
#21 Tennessee
 4-2 28 Won 45-20 over South Carolina
#22 Mississippi 4-1 12 Won 52-51 over #29 Arkansas (now #23)
#23 Arkansas 4-2 29 Lost 52-51 at #12 Mississippi (now #22)
#24 Brigham Young 5-1 17 Lost 26-17 to unrated Boise State
#25 Utah
 3-2 19 Won 42-26 at Southern Cal

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

Pittsburgh did not play this week, but they still plummeted from #8 to #20. That's because Western Michigan, who had previously beaten Pitt, was trounced by unrated Ball state 45-20 at home, knocking WMU all the way out of the ratings, and dealing quite a blow to Pitt as well. Pitt remains ranked only because of their week 2 win at Tennessee, who is now #21. Pitt and Tennessee were both ranked in the preseason top 25, and that is the main reason they are now ranked ahead of Mississippi and Arkansas, neither of whom was ranked in the preseason top 25. Speaking of Ole Miss, they drop from #12 to #22 not just because they barely beat previously-unrated Arkansas at home, but because their 42-21 loss to Alabama looks a whole lot worse now that the Tide is #17 rather than #2.

Brigham Young's 26-17 loss to unrated Boise State at home has caused a bunch of teams to fall in the rankings aside from BYU. Because BYU owns wins over Utah and Arizona State, those teams fall in the rankings along with BYU, as do associated teams Fresno State, UCLA, and Stanford. Four of those teams fall completely out of the top 25. Oregon and Ohio State are affected as well, as Oregon's close home win over Fresno State and their upset loss to Stanford both hurt them quite a bit more now that both of those teams are unranked. Still, while 4 teams pass them up because of that, another 4 teams fall back behind them due to their own troubles, so at least Oregon and Ohio State remain ranked where they were last week.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Arizona State
#27 Fresno State
#28 UCLA
#29 Stanford
#30 Southern Methodist
#31 Texas-San Antonio

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

We have a big week coming up, with 4 games pitting TipTop 25 teams against each other, the most we've seen this season: #18 Kentucky at #4 Georgia, #24 Brigham Young at #6 Baylor, #7 Iowa State at #15 Kansas State, and #22 Mississippi at #21 Tennessee. In addition, #26 Arizona State visits #25 Utah, a slot in the rankings on the line, and nearly-ranked Fresno State travels to 4-1 Wyoming. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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