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2021 TipTop 25 Week Five

Utah State is picked first out of my hat for 2021

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Utah State was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot. Unfortunately, the Aggies were unimpressive enough in their opener that they slipped down out of the top spot after their opener.

As the games are played, I will be ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked entirely based on what they do this season and, for the first few weeks at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that all FCS teams are at a lower power level, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. Similarly, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Our New #1

MS Paint of a Michigan football player in 2021

Our previous #1, Oregon, took an upset loss at unranked Stanford this week, so their stay at the top lasts just one week. We are left with previous #2 Michigan to take their place. The Wolverines were not randomly selected out of my hat before the season, so they did not make the preseason top 25, or even the top 50. But here they are now at #1 in less than half a season.

Michigan opened with a 47-14 rout of unranked Western Michigan. That win got them into the top 25, but not right away. WMU defeated then-#7 Pittsburgh on the road in week 3, and that not only put WMU into the top 25 at #16, but Michigan rode their coattails to a #15 ranking themselves. The next week, Michigan defeated then-#7 Rutgers 20-13, and that plus a whole lot of carnage in the top 15 pushed Michigan all the way up to #2. And as noted above, #1 Oregon's upset loss puts Michigan on the throne this week.

TipTop 25 After Week Five Games

For the second straight week, a big 9 teams from the previous week's TipTop 25 suffered upset losses, so naturally we've got another big shake-up in the list this week. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Michigan 5-0 2 Won 38-17 at Wisconsin
#2 Alabama 5-0 13
 Won 42-21 over #8 Mississippi (now #12)
#3 Coastal Carolina 5-0 7
 Won 59-6 over Louisiana-Monroe
#4 Iowa 5-0 19 Won 51-14 at #27 Maryland
#5 Cincinnati 4-0 20 Won 24-13 at Notre Dame
#6 Georgia 5-0 22 Won 37-0 over #18 Arkansas (now unrated)
#7 Western Michigan 4-1 15 Won 24-17 at Buffalo
#8 Pittsburgh 4-1 16 Won 52-21 at Georgia Tech
#9 Oregon 4-1 1 Lost 31-24 in OT at unrated Stanford (now #25)
#10 Ohio State 4-1 4 Won 52-13 at #3 Rutgers (now #11)
#11 Rutgers 3-2 3 Lost 52-13 to #4 Ohio State (now #10)
#12
 Mississippi 3-1
 8
 Lost 42-21 at #13 Alabama (now #2)
#13 Wake Forest 5-0 12 Won 37-34 over Louisville
#14 Oklahoma State
 5-0 28 Won 24-14 over #6 Baylor (now #15)
#15 Baylor 4-1 6 Lost 24-14 at unrated Oklahoma State (now #14)
#16 Iowa State 3-2 21 Won 59-7 over Kansas
#17 Brigham Young 5-0 23 Won 34-20 at Utah State
#18 San Diego State 4-0 24 Did not play
#19 Utah 2-2
 25 Did not play
#20 Arizona State
 4-1 26 Won 42-23 at #11 UCLA (now #24)
#21 Oklahoma
 5-0 Unrated Won 37-31 at #29 Kansas State (now #22)
#22 Kansas State
 3-2 29 Lost 37-31 to unrated Oklahoma (now #21)
#23 Fresno State 4-2 5 Lost 27-24 at unrated Hawaii
#24 UCLA 3-2 11 Lost 42-23 to #26 Arizona State (now #20)
#25 Stanford
 3-2 Unrated Won 31-24 in OT over #1 Oregon (now #9)

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

It's not just winning and losing that will cause a team to rise or drop in the rankings: struggling to beat an FCS team or an unranked FBS team can cause a team to sink in the rankings as well. Wake Forest provides an example this week, as their slim 37-34 win over unrated Louisville at home has caused them to drop a bit in the rankings.

Oregon's upset loss at Stanford not only knocks the Ducks down in the rankings, but Ohio State as well, since Ohio State has previously lost to Oregon at home. Oregon remains ranked ahead of Stanford because Oregon beat Fresno State, who beat UCLA, who beat Stanford. Stanford's big upset win has gotten them back into the top 25 though, and it has also kept Fresno State and UCLA in the rankings. Fresno State's ugly loss at unrated Hawaii would have knocked them out of the top 25, and UCLA along with them, if not for Stanford buoying the both of them. Stanford supplies similar buoying to #22 Kansas State, who had routed Stanford in their opener.

I moved Alabama ahead of Coastal Carolina because the Tide has now beaten a rated team and a near-rated team, while CC hasn't beaten anyone of value.

Iowa and Cincinnati keep moving up because no one has come within a touchdown of either of them, and that feat becomes more comparatively impressive with every passing week.

Despite getting blasted 52-13 by Ohio State, Rutgers doesn't fall far behind them, as they have a very impressive 20-13 loss at #1 Michigan to their credit, balancing out that awful performance against the Buckeyes.

Utah remains ranked ahead of Arizona State largely because they were #22 on the preseason list, ASU #37.

Florida's upset loss at unranked Kentucky sends the Gators out of the top 25, and Tennessee, who had previously been thrashed by Florida, falls out with them.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Kentucky
#27 Florida
#28 Tennessee
#29 Arkansas
#30 Michigan State
#31 Penn State
#32 Southern Methodist
#33 Texas-San Antonio
#34 Wyoming

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This week we have only one game pitting TipTop 25 teams against each other, #25 Stanford at #20 Arizona State. But we do get a handful of games that feature a near-rated team taking on a rated opponent: #31 Penn State at #4 Iowa, #30 Michigan State at #11 Rutgers, and #29 Arkansas at #12 Mississippi. Additionally, #21 Oklahoma faces 4-1 Texas in the Red River Rivalry. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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