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2021 TipTop 25 Week Four

Utah State is picked first out of my hat for 2021

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Utah State was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot. Unfortunately, the Aggies were unimpressive enough in their opener that they slipped down out of the top spot after their opener.

As the games are played, I will be ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked entirely based on what they do this season and, for the first few weeks at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that all FCS teams are at a lower power level, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. Similarly, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Our New #1

MS Paint of an Oregon player from the 2021 Ohio State game

Baylor had been barely clinging to the top spot for a couple of weeks now, and this week they only beat unrated Iowa State 31-29 at home, which sends them tumbling back down the ratings a bit. In addition, Utah State, who had been #2 last week, was blasted 27-3 by unranked Boise State, and that enables #3 Oregon to rise to the throne. To commemorate Oregon's coronation, I created the MS Paint above. Because Oregon changes their helmet and uniform set every game, I had a lot of options to choose from for this MS Painting, and I went with their look from their biggest game of the year so far, at Ohio State (who is now ranked #4).

Oregon came out of my hat 5th, thus starting at #5 in the preseason TipTop 25. They struggled to beat unranked Fresno State 31-24 in their opener, so they dropped in the rankings a bit, but since then Fresno State has won all their games, including a big one at UCLA (who is now #11). Fresno State has therefore risen dramatically, and currently sits at #5, making them more of a help to Oregon's cause than a hindrance. Oregon has also beaten Ohio State, who currently sits at #4, giving Oregon a very impressive pair of wins at this point. However, Oregon's close wins over those teams can cut both ways, so bear in mind that if Fresno State or Ohio State gets upset, Oregon would be negatively affected.

TipTop 25 After Week Four Games

A big 9 teams from last week's TipTop 25 suffered upset losses, by far the most we've seen this year, so naturally we've got another big shake-up in the list this week, starting with the fact that half of last week's top 10 has fallen out of the rankings entirely! This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Oregon	4-0	3	Won 41-19 over Arizona
#2	Michigan	4-0	15	Won 20-13 over #7 Rutgers (now #3)
#3	Rutgers	3-1	7	Lost 20-13 at #15 Michigan (now #2)
#4	Ohio State	3-1	13	Won 59-7 over Akron
#5	Fresno State	4-1	11	Won 38-30 over UNLV
#6	Baylor	4-0	1	Won 31-29 over unrated Iowa State (now #21)
#7	Coastal Carolina	4-0	14	Won 53-3 over Massachusetts
#8	Mississippi	3-0	12	Did not play
#9	Syracuse	3-1	Unrated	Won 24-21 over #8 Liberty (now #10)
#10	Liberty	3-1	8	Lost 24-21 at unrated Syracuse (now #9)
#11	UCLA	3-1	19	Won 35-24 at #6 Stanford (now unrated)
#12	Wake Forest	4-0	21	Won 37-17 at #30 Virginia
#13	Alabama	4-0	22	Won 63-14 over Southern Miss
#14	Florida	3-1	23	Won 38-14 over #18 Tennessee (now #17)
#15	Western Michigan	3-1	16	Won 23-3 over San Jose State
#16	Pittsburgh	3-1	17	Won 77-7 over an FCS team
#17	Tennessee	2-2	18	Lost 38-14 at #23 Florida (now #14)
#18	Arkansas	4-0	Unrated	Won 20-10 over Texas A&M in Arlington
#19	Iowa	4-0	Unrated	Won 24-14 over Colorado State
#20	Cincinnati	3-0	Unrated	Did not play
#21	Iowa State	2-2	Unrated	Lost 31-29 at #1 Baylor (now #6)
#22	Georgia	4-0	Unrated	Won 62-0 at Vanderbilt
#23	Brigham Young	4-0	10	Won 35-27 over South Florida
#24	San Diego State	4-0	Unrated	Won 48-21 over an FCS team
#25	Utah	2-2	Unrated	Won 24-13 over #26 Washington State

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

It's not just winning and losing that will cause a team to rise or drop in the rankings: struggling to beat an FCS team or an unranked (in top 50) FBS team can cause a team to sink in the rankings as well. This week, the biggest example of this effect is Baylor, who has dropped from #1 to #6 due to a very unimpressive 31-29 home win over previously-unranked Iowa State.

Last week, Michigan had been rated #15 and Rutgers #7, and this week, following Michigan's 20-13 victory over Rutgers, Michigan is #2 and Rutgers #3. You may be wondering why both teams rose so much in the rankings due to that result, and the answer is that they didn't. What happened is that a bunch of teams ranked ahead of them took upset losses or posted very poor performances, and thus fell back behind them. This is often the case when a team rises dramatically in the rankings following a performance that alone doesn't explain the rise. A more extreme example of this effect is Tennessee, who had been #18 last week, got trounced by then-#23 Florida 38-14, yet this week Tennessee actually moves up to #17! In reality, it's not that Tennessee rose so much as a bunch of other teams fell away behind them (though 5 teams did move up past Tennessee this week as well).

Air Force had been #4 last week, and they defeated Florida Atlantic 31-7, but they fall all the way out of the ratings this week because Utah State, who had previously beaten Air Force, was rocked 27-3 by unrated Boise State at home. That sends Utah State out of the rankings, and Air Force falls out with them.

Fresno State was hurt a bit by their close 38-30 home win over unranked UNLV this week (it's why Ohio State has moved past them), but they were also helped this week by UCLA. That's because Fresno State had previously beaten them, and this week UCLA won 35-24 at then-#6 Stanford, moving the Bruins up to #11. Stanford, meanwhile, drops all the way out of the rankings not just because of that loss to UCLA, but because Kansas State, who had previously beaten Stanford, was upset by unranked Oklahoma State and has fallen out of the top 25. Furthermore, Stanford's one big win had come over Southern Cal, who was routed by unranked Oregon State this week, sending the Trojans out of the rankings as well. Funny that KSU, Stanford, and USC all moved into the rankings last week, and all in the top 10, and now, one week later, all 3 have lost and fallen all the way back out of the top 25 again.

I moved Coastal Carolina ahead of Ole Miss largely because CC had been #12 in the preseason and Mississippi #30. Also, CC's one weak performance came on the road, and Mississippi has yet to play a game on an opponent's home field.

Syracuse comes into the top 25 all the way at #9 following their win over then-#8 Liberty. It's not just that big win that gets them ranked so highly, however: they had been ranked #14 in the preseason, and their one loss, 17-7 to Rutgers, doesn't look so bad now that Rutgers is ranked #3. Of course, Rutgers' ranking was also strengthened by Syracuse's win over Liberty this week.

Arkansas, Iowa, and Cincinnati enter the top 25 this week not because they have beaten a rated or near-rated opponent, but simply because they have each won all of their games by more than a touchdown, unlike all of the teams now ranked behind them.

Utah, who had been #22 in the preseason rankings, gets back into the top 25 thanks to a 24-13 win over #26 Washington State, and San Diego State, who had previously beaten Utah, rides that same wave into the top 25.

Finally, Maryland, who had been #24 last week, falls out of the rankings despite an easy 37-16 win over Kent State. That's because West Virginia, whom Maryland had beaten in a close home win in their opener, was upset by an unranked opponent, knocking them out. This gives Maryland 2 weak performances. But they are still 4-0, and next week they host #19 Iowa for a chance to get back into the top 25.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Arizona State
#27 Maryland
#28 Oklahoma State
#29 Kansas State

Looking Ahead to Big Games Over the Next Two Weeks

I'll be out of town next week, so I will not be updating the TipTop 25 until week 6. Therefore, I'll list the big games coming up over the next 2 weeks here instead of just those for next week.

This week's headliner game is #4 Ohio State at #3 Rutgers. But this is by far the most impressive week of games for the TipTop 25 this season, and there are a lot of significant match-ups behind that one big one: #6 Baylor at #28 Oklahoma State, #8 Mississippi at #13 Alabama, #26 Arizona State at #11 UCLA, #18 Arkansas at #22 Georgia, #19 Iowa at #27 Maryland, and 4-0 Oklahoma at #29 Kansas State.

The week after that is much less impressive, but we do get these games: #27 Maryland at #4 Ohio State, #18 Arkansas at #8 Mississippi, and #12 Wake Forest at #9 Syracuse. Join me in two weeks as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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