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2021 TipTop 25 Week Ten

Utah State is picked first out of my hat for 2021

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Utah State was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot. Unfortunately, the Aggies were unimpressive enough in their opener that they slipped down out of the top spot after their opener.

As the games are played, I will be ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked entirely based on what they do this season and, for the first few weeks at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that all FCS teams are at a lower power level, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. Similarly, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Georgia Still #1

MS Paint of a Georgia football player

Georgia was not randomly selected from my hat before the season, so they were not ranked in the preseason top 25, or even top 50. They entered the TipTop 25 at #13 in week 2 due to beating then-#22 UAB 56-7. But because they had struggled to beat Clemson in the first week, and because Clemson played poorly in week 3, Georgia was dragged down with Clemson and out of the top 25 again. They rose back into the top 25 in week 4 as teams fell out of their way, and in week 5 they smashed then-#18 Arkansas 37-0 to move all the way up to #6. Two more smashings of rated teams put them all the way to the top. This week they smashed unrated Missouri 43-6.

TipTop 25 After Week Ten Games

For four weeks in a row, only 4 TipTop 25 teams had taken upset losses, but this week there was a jump in the amount of carnage, as 6 teams from last week's TipTop 25 suffered losses to lower-ranked teams. Still, our top 25 has been pretty stable for over a month now, and the extra carnage doesn't actually amount to as much of a shake-up in the ratings as you might expect. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Georgia 9-0 1 Won 43-6 over Missouri
#2 Cincinnati 9-0 2
 Won 28-20 over Tulsa
#3 Oregon 8-1 3
 Won 26-16 at Washington
#4 Ohio State 8-1 4 Won 26-17 at Nebraska
#5 Oklahoma
 9-0 10 Did not play
#6 Notre Dame 8-1 11 Won 34-6 over Navy
#7 Alabama 8-1 12
 Won 20-14 over #41 Louisiana State
#8 Oklahoma State 8-1 5 Won 24-3 at West Virginia
#9 Baylor 7-2 6 Lost 30-28 at unrated Texas Christian
#10 Michigan State 8-1 7 Lost 40-29 at #15 Purdue (now #13)
#11 Michigan 8-1 9 Won 29-7 at Indiana
#12
 Wisconsin 6-3
 13
 Won 52-3 at Rutgers
#13 Purdue 6-3 15 Won 40-29 over #7 Michigan State (now #10)
#14 Iowa 7-2 16 Won 17-12 at Northwestern
#15 Iowa State 6-3 17 Won 30-7 over #30 Texas
#16 Kansas State 6-3 18 Won 35-10 at Kansas
#17 Penn State 6-3 19 Won 31-14 at Maryland
#18 Texas A&M
 7-2 29 Won 20-3 over #20 Auburn (now #19)
#19 Auburn 6-3
 20 Lost 20-3 at #29 Texas A&M (now #18)
#20 Mississippi 7-2 21 Won 27-14 over Liberty
#21 Arkansas 6-3 22 Won 31-28 over #31 Mississippi State
#22 Brigham Young 8-2 25 Won 59-14 over an FCS team
#23 Nevada
 7-2 26 Won 27-24 over San Jose State
#24 Boise State 5-4 3 Won 40-14 at #23 Fresno State (now #25)
#25 Fresno State 7-3 25 Lost 40-14 to #35 Boise State (now #24)

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

Upset losses can have very differing impacts on different teams. The following teams all took upset losses this week: Baylor (#6 last week), Michigan State (#7), Wake Forest (#8), and Minnesota (#14). But while Baylor and Michigan State fell just 3 slots each, Wake Forest and Minnesota fell all the way out of the top 25, and in fact, both fell out of the top 40! Baylor is still buoyed by wins over #15 Iowa State and #22 BYU, and they are still aided by the fact that they were ranked #10 in the preseason, and Michigan State is still buoyed by their big win over #11 Michigan. Wake Forest, on the other hand, did not have a win over a ranked team, or even a team that was close to ranked, so they could not afford an upset loss. As for Minnesota, while they do have a win over a ranked team (#13 Purdue), that is their only win of any value, and their loss to 4-6 Illinois this week is actually their second upset loss, as they had previously lost to 3-6 Bowling Green. Those losses are obviously dreadful results, and they are made all the worse by the fact that both occurred at home.

Oklahoma State, #5 last week, had been most bolstered by a 24-14 win over Baylor, but Baylor's upset loss renders that win much less impressive, so Oklahoma State drops this week along with Baylor. Similarly, Michigan, #9 last week, had previously lost to Michigan State, and so they drop a bit as the Spartans drop due to their upset loss.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Utah State
#27 San Diego State
#28 Texas-San Antonio
#29 Mississippi State
#30 North Carolina State
#31 Miami (Florida)
 #32 Texas
#33 Louisiana
#34 Appalachian State
#35 Coastal Carolina
#36 Air Force
#37 Pittsburgh
#38 Clemson
#39 Tennessee
#40 Utah
#41 Minnesota
#42 Washington State
#43 Arizona State
#44 Wake Forest
#45 Army
#46 UCLA
#47 Kentucky
#48 Louisiana State

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This week we have four games pitting TipTop 25 teams against each other: #13 Purdue at #4 Ohio State, #5 Oklahoma at #9 Baylor, #11 Michigan at #17 Penn State, and #18 Texas A&M at #20 Mississippi. On top of that, we also have half a dozen games that feature a rated team playing a nearly-rated team: #1 Georgia at #39 Tennessee, #42 Washington State at #3 Oregon, #41 Minnesota at #14 Iowa, #29 Mississippi State at #19 Auburn, #21 Arkansas at #48 Louisiana State, and #23 Nevada at #27 San Diego State. Finally, #30 North Carolina State visits #44 Wake Forest. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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