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2019 TipTop 25 Week Four

Georgia Southern is picked first out of my hat for 2019

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Georgia Southern was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but they lost their opener 55-3 at previously unranked Louisiana State, so their stay at the top was brief.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Navy Still #1

MS Paint of a Navy player

I pulled the Midshipmen out of my hat for the #4 slot in the preseason, but in the first week of games, the way was cleared for Navy, who beat Holy Cross 45-7, to rise to the top by default. #1 Georgia Southern was destroyed 55-3 at previously unranked LSU, #2 Purdue lost 34-31 at previously unranked Nevada, and #3 Central Michigan only won 38-21 over Albany, which is not a decisive enough outcome for a #1 team to post against an FCS opponent. This week Navy did not play, and they have not faced a worthy opponent thus far, so their season really starts this week, with a Thursday night road trip to 3-0 Memphis. Because Memphis is unranked, Navy will probably have to win that game by at least 9 points to remain #1 next week.

TipTop 25 After Week Four Games

Last week, our top 25 teams had suffered 5 upset losses, but this week, our top 25 teams took just 3 upset losses, an unusually low amount for this point in the season. Still, we've got another big shakeup in the ratings this week because several teams posted close wins over opponents that were not close to ranked. That not only impacts the rankings of those teams, but also of the teams they've played previously. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Navy 2-0 1 Did not play
#2 Wisconsin 3-0 2 Won 35-14 over unrated Michigan
#3 Kansas State 3-0 5 Did not play
#4 Mississippi State 3-1 6
 Won 28-13 over #19 Kentucky (now unrated)
#5 Ohio State 4-0 11 Won 76-5 over unrated Miami (Ohio)
#6 Louisiana State 4-0 3
 Won 66-38 at unrated Vanderbilt
#7 Auburn 4-0 4 Won 28-20 at unrated Texas A&M
#8 Oregon 3-1 7
 Won 21-6 at unrated Stanford
#9 Georgia 4-0 12 Won 23-17 over #21 Notre Dame (now #11)
#10 Texas 3-1 10 Won 36-30 over unrated Oklahoma State (now #12)
#11 Notre Dame 2-1 21 Lost 23-17 at #12 Georgia (now #9)
#12 Oklahoma State
 3-1 Unrated Lost 36-30 at #10 Texas
#13 Penn State 3-0 15
 Did not play
#14 Boise State 4-0 13
 Won 30-19 over #27 Air Force
#15 Virginia 4-0 14
 Won 28-17 over Old Dominion
#16 Wake Forest 4-0 16 Won 49-7 over an FCS team
#17 Utah State 2-1
 17 Won 23-17 at unrated San Diego State
#18 Oklahoma 3-0 24
 Did not play
#19 Clemson 4-0 34 Won 52-10 over Charlotte
#20 Alabama
 4-0 Unrated Won 49-7 over unrated Southern Miss
#21 Appalachian State 3-0 20 Won 34-31 at unrated North Carolina
#22 California
 4-0 Unrated Won 28-20 at #30 Mississippi
#23 Washington
 3-1 Unrated Won 45-19 at unrated Brigham Young
#24 Iowa 3-0 Unrated Did not play
#25 Iowa State 2-1 Unrated Won 72-20 over #23 Louisiana-Monroe (now unrated)

Notes on Changes to This Week's TipTop 25

Texas, #10 last week, posted a close home win over Oklahoma State, who had not been close to ranked, and normally that would cause a drop in the ratings, but enough teams around Texas fell in the ratings for Texas to remain at #10 this week. Because Oklahoma State had been dominant in their previous games, albeit against weak opponents, they zoom into the rankings at #12, gaining a huge benefit for playing Texas so closely. Meanwhile, Louisiana State, who had been #3 last week, and who had previously won a close game at Texas, drops a bit this week. That is because Texas, while remaining #10, is less solid an opponent after their close win this week. Ohio State, who passes LSU up this week, has not had a close game yet.

Auburn, who had been #4 last week, also drops a bit this week, due to their close win at Texas A&M, who had not been close to ranked. Oregon, who had previously lost to Auburn, drops a bit with them.

Notre Dame moves up from #21 to #11 due to a great performance in a close loss at Georgia, who is now rated #9.

Iowa State's 72-20 demolition of Louisiana-Monroe (#23 last week) causes a cascade of effects. Because Florida State (#22 last week) had previously been taken to overtime by Louisiana-Monroe, the Seminoles fall out of the rankings, and that hurts the ratings of Boise State (#13 last week) and Virginia (#14 last week), both of whom had previously posted close wins over Florida State. Iowa State enters the top 25 this week, and Iowa comes along for the ride, as they had previously defeated Iowa State. I brought Cal and Washington into the top 25 ahead of Iowa and ISU because Washington had been rated #11 in the preseason, and neither Iowa nor ISU had been rated in the preseason top 50. So we can see a lingering effect from the preseason ratings there.

Appalachian State, #20 last week, drops a bit due to a close win at North Carolina, who was not close to ranked. 4-0 Clemson and 4-0 Alabama have not yet beaten a rated opponent, but no one has come within a touchdown of them, so they finally enter the top 25, just ahead of Appalachian State.

4-0 Florida, #18 last week, falls out of the ratings despite a 34-3 win over Tennessee. That's because Kentucky, #19 last week, falls out of the top 25 due to a 28-13 loss to Mississippi State, and Florida had previously posted a close win at Kentucky. That plus a close win over Miami in their opener sends Florida packing for now.

Finally, 3-0 Memphis, who had been just outside the top 25 last week at #26, fails to get in this week due to Mississippi's 28-20 home loss to Cal. Memphis had previously beaten Ole Miss by just 5 points at home.

Close to the Top 25

Normally, I list the teams who are next in line to be ranked here, but for the first time ever, I have no teams to list. No one quite deserves it. If you must consider some teams as close to being ranked, I suppose that 4-0 Florida, 3-0 Memphis, 3-0 Baylor, and 4-0 Southern Methodist will do.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Showdown Saturday! This week we have 3 games pitting top 25 teams against each other, the most so far this year: #3 Kansas State at #12 Oklahoma State, #4 Mississippi State at #7 Auburn, and #15 Virginia at #11 Notre Dame. In addition, #1 Navy plays at 3-0 Memphis, and #25 Iowa State visits 3-0 Baylor. As I noted earlier, Navy likely has to beat Memphis by at least 9 points to remain #1, so I think there is a good chance that a new team takes the throne next week. We shall see. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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