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2019 TipTop 25 Week Three

Georgia Southern is picked first out of my hat for 2019

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Georgia Southern was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but they lost their opener 55-3 at previously unranked Louisiana State, so their stay at the top was brief.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Navy Still #1

MS Paint of a Navy player

I pulled the Midshipmen out of my hat for the #4 slot in the preseason, but in the first week of games, the way was cleared for Navy, who beat Holy Cross 45-7, to rise to the top by default. #1 Georgia Southern was destroyed 55-3 at previously unranked LSU, #2 Purdue lost 34-31 at previously unranked Nevada, and #3 Central Michigan only won 38-21 over Albany, which is not a decisive enough outcome for a #1 team to post against an FCS opponent. This week Navy beat East Carolina 42-10, and since they're off next week, it's going to end up being a pretty long stay at the top for the Midshipmen.

TipTop 25 After Week Three Games

Last week, our top 25 teams had suffered a big 8 upset losses, but this week our top 25 teams only took 5 upset losses, and 2 of those were to opponents who were also ranked. Still, we've got another big shakeup in the ratings this week because 5 teams posted close wins over opponents that were not close to ranked. Those teams all drop, and this week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Navy 2-0 1 Won 42-10 over unrated East Carolina
#2 Wisconsin 2-0 3 Did not play
#3 Louisiana State 3-0 4 Won 65-14 over an FCS team
#4 Auburn 3-0 8
 Won 55-16 over unrated Kent State
#5 Kansas State 3-0 13 Won 31-24 at #5 Mississippi State (now #6)
#6 Mississippi State 2-1 5
 Lost 31-24 to #13 Kansas State (now #5)
#7 Oregon 2-1 9 Won 35-3 over an FCS team
#8 Temple 2-0 14
 Won 20-17 over #11 Maryland (now #9)
#9 Maryland 2-1 11 Lost 20-17 at #14 Temple (now #8)
#10 Texas 2-1 15 Won 48-13 at unrated Rice
#11 Ohio State 3-0 16 Won 51-10 at #38 Indiana
#12 Georgia 3-0 17 Won 55-0 over unrated Arkansas State
#13 Boise State 3-0 19
 Won 45-10 over an FCS team
#14 Virginia 3-0 25 Won 31-24 over #29 Florida State (now #22)
#15 Penn State 3-0 2 Won 17-10 over unranked Pittsburgh
#16 Wake Forest 3-0 6 Won 24-18 over unranked North Carolina
#17 Utah State 1-1
 7 Did not play
#18 Florida 3-0 Unrated
 Won 29-21 at #12 Kentucky (now #19)
#19 Kentucky 2-1 12 Lost 29-21 to unrated Florida (now #18)
#20 Appalachian State
 2-0 26 Did not play
#21 Notre Dame
 2-0 27 Won 66-14 over unrated New Mexico
#22 Florida State
 1-2 29 Lost 31-24 at #25 Virginia (now #14)
#23 Louisiana Monroe
 1-1 30 Did not play
#24 Oklahoma 3-0 Unrated Won 48-14 at unrated UCLA
#25 Washington State 3-0 18 Won 31-24 at unrated Houston

Notes on Changes to This Week's TipTop 25

It's not just losing that can cause a team to drop in the rankings: struggling to beat an FCS team or an unranked (in top 50) FBS team can cause a team to sink in the rankings as well. So Penn State and Washington State, as just 2 examples, fall in the rankings this week due to close wins over teams that were not even close to ranked. But Washington State's 7 point win at unrated Houston has another effect on this week's ratings: because 3-0 Oklahoma had previously beaten Houston by 18 points, I'm moving them into the top 25 ahead of WSU.

Utah State drops 10 places despite not playing this week. That's because Wake Forest dropped quite a bit due to a close win over unrated North Carolina, and Utah State had lost their opener at Wake Forest.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Memphis
#27 Air Force
#28 Colorado
#29 Nebraska
#30 Mississippi
#31 Arizona State
#32 Michigan State
#33 Baylor
#34 Clemson
#35 Texas Christian
#36 Utah

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

For the second straight week, we have 2 games between top 25 teams:#19 Kentucky at #6 Mississippi State and #21 Notre Dame at #12 Georgia. In addition, #27 Air Force visits #13 Boise State. Finally, a pair of nearly ranked teams face off, #28 Colorado at #31 Arizona State. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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