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2019 TipTop 25 Week Two

Georgia Southern is picked first out of my hat for 2019

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Georgia Southern was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but they lost their opener 55-3 at previously unranked Louisiana State, so their stay at the top was brief.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Navy Still #1

I pulled the Midshipmen out of my hat for the #4 slot in the preseason, but in the first week of games, the way was cleared for Navy, who beat Holy Cross 45-7, to rise to the top by default. #1 Georgia Southern was destroyed 55-3 at previously unranked LSU, #2 Purdue lost 34-31 at previously unranked Nevada, and #3 Central Michigan only won 38-21 over Albany, which is not a decisive enough outcome for a #1 team to post against an FCS opponent. Navy did not play this week, and since their opener was an FCS opponent, they haven't even really begun the season yet.

TipTop 25 After Week Two Games

Last week, our preseason top 25 teams took 6 upset losses in their openers, but this week our top 25 teams fared even worse, suffering 8 upset losses. That gives us a huge shakeup in the rankings, and this week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Navy	1-0	1	Did not play
#2	Penn State	2-0	2	Won 45-13 over unrated Buffalo
#3	Wisconsin	2-0	Unrated	Won 61-0 over #4 Central Michigan (now unrated)
#4	Louisiana State	2-0	3	Won 45-38 at #22 Texas (now #15)
#5	Mississippi State	2-0	7	Won 38-15 over unrated Southern Miss
#6	Wake Forest	2-0	17	Won 41-21 at unrated Rice
#7	Utah State	1-1	18	Won 62-7 over an FCS team
#8	Auburn	2-0	31	Won 24-6 over unrated Tulane
#9	Oregon	1-1	Unrated	Won 77-6 over #14 Nevada (now unrated)
#10	Iowa	2-0	Unrated	Won 30-0 over #11 Rutgers (now unrated)
#11	Maryland	2-0	Unrated	Won 63-20 over #16 Syracuse (now unrated)
#12	Kentucky	2-0	19	Won 38-17 over #36 Eastern Michigan
#13	Kansas State	2-0	20	Won 52-0 over unrated Bowling Green
#14	Temple	1-0	21	Did not play
#15	Texas	1-1	22	Lost 45-38 to #3 LSU (now #4)
#16	Ohio State	2-0	27	Won 42-0 over #25 Cincinnati (now unrated)
#17	Georgia	2-0	23	Won 63-17 over an FCS team
#18	Washington State	2-0	24	Won 59-17 over an FCS team
#19	Boise State	2-0	6	Won 14-7 over unrated Marshall (now #28)
#20	Michigan State	2-0	Unrated	Won 51-17 over unrated Western Michigan
#21	California	2-0	Unrated	Won 20-19 at #8 Washington (now #22)
#22	Washington	1-1	8	Lost 20-19 to unrated California (now #21)
#23	Colorado	2-0	Unrated	Won 34-31 in OT over #9 Nebraska (now #24)
#24	Nebraska	1-1	9	Lost 34-31 in OT at unrated Colorado (now #23)
#25	Virginia	2-0	26	Won 52-17 over an FCS team

Notes on Changes to This Week's TipTop 25

It's not just winning and losing that will cause a team to rise or drop in the rankings: struggling to beat an FCS team or an unranked (in top 50) FBS team can cause a team to sink in the rankings as well. So Michigan, who had been ranked #10, falls all the way out of the rankings due to their overtime win over Army, who had not been ranked in the top 50. Furthermore, Army had struggled to defeat Rice, who had not been ranked in the top 50, the week before. Then there is Georgia State, who had been ranked #5 last week, but won by just 6 points over an FCS team this week, and so is gone entirely from the rankings.

Boise State (#6 last week), on the other hand, holds on to a spot in the top 25 (#19) despite a second straight close win over an unranked (top 50) opponent. They were saved by Florida State, whom they had beaten on the road in their opener. That matters because FSU just defeated Louisiana Monroe, who had been ranked #13 last week.

Last week I wrote this: "the fortunes of Nevada (now #14) are tied to those of Purdue (#15) due to Nevada's close home win over the Boilermakers. If either Nevada or Purdue does poorly, the other team's ranking will be adversely affected." Well, this week Nevada was destroyed by previously unranked Oregon, sending them bye-bye, and so too Purdue, despite Purdue's dominating win over Vanderbilt.

Last note here is about Michigan State. The Spartans enter the rankings at #20 not because they smashed unrated Western Michigan 51-17, but because they easily dispatched Tulsa 28-7 the week before. Tulsa, you see, just won 34-16 at San Jose State, who had been rated #12.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Appalachian State
#27 Notre Dame
#28 Marshall
#29 Florida State
#30 Louisiana Monroe
#31 Memphis
#32 Mississippi
#33 Baylor
#34 Clemson
#35 Wyoming
#36 Texas Christian
#37 Missouri
#38 Indiana
#39 Utah

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This week we have 2 games between top 25 teams: #13 Kansas State at #5 Mississippi State and #11 Maryland at #14 Temple. We also have 2 games featuring top 25 teams taking on nearly ranked opponents: #16 Ohio State at #38 Indiana and #29 Florida State at #25 Virginia. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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