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2019 TipTop 25 Week One

Georgia Southern is picked first out of my hat for 2019

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Georgia Southern was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but they lost their opener 55-3 at previously unranked Louisiana State, so we will have a new team at the top of the list, as covered below.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Our New #1

MS Paint of a Navy player

Here is an MS Paint I made to commemorate our new #1, Navy. I pulled the Midshipmen out of my hat for the #4 slot in the preseason, but in this first week of games, the way was cleared for Navy, who beat Holy Cross 45-7, to rise to the top by default. #1 Georgia Southern was destroyed 55-3 at previously unranked LSU, #2 Purdue lost 34-31 at previously unranked Nevada, and #3 Central Michigan only won 38-21 over Albany, which is not a decisive enough outcome for a #1 team to post against an FCS opponent.

TipTop 25 After Week One Games

In each of the previous 2 seasons, 9 of our preseason top 25 teams took a loss in the first week, but this year only 6 of our preseason top 25 teams took a loss, a big improvement. After the opening week's games, this week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Navy 1-0 4 Won 45-7 over an FCS team
#2 Penn State
 1-0 7 Won 79-7 over unrated Idaho
#3 Louisiana State
 1-0 Unrated Won 55-3 over #1 Georgia Southern (now unrated)
#4 Central Michigan
 1-0 3 Won 38-21 over an FCS team
#5 Georgia State
 1-0 5 Won 38-30 at unrated Tennessee
#6 Boise State
 1-0 6
 Won 36-31 at unrated Florida State
#7 Mississippi State
 1-0 10 Won 38-28 over unrated Louisiana in New Orleans
#8 Washington 1-0 11 Won 47-14 over an FCS team
#9 Nebraska
 1-0 12 Won 35-21 over unrated South Alabama
#10 Michigan 1-0 14 Won 40-21 over unrated Middle Tennessee
#11 Rutgers 1-0 16 Won 48-21 over an FCS team
#12 San Jose State 1-0 17 Won 35-18 over an FCS team
#13 Louisiana Monroe
 1-0 21 Won 31-9 over an FCS team
#14 Nevada 1-0 Unrated Won 34-31 over #2 Purdue (now #15)
#15 Purdue 0-1 2 Lost 34-31 at unrated Nevada (now #14)
#16 Syracuse 1-0 Unrated Won 24-0 at #19 Liberty
#17 Wake Forest
 1-0 Unrated Won 38-35 over #9 Utah State (now #18)
#18 Utah State
 0-1 9 Lost 38-35 at unrated Wake Forest (now #17)
#19 Kentucky 1-0 22 Won 38-24 over unrated Toledo
#20 Kansas State
 1-0 23 Won 49-14 over an FCS team
#21 Temple 1-0 24 Won 56-12 over an FCS team
#22 Texas 1-0 26 Won 45-14 over unrated Louisiana Tech
#23 Georgia
 1-0 31 Won 30-6 at #45 Vanderbilt
#24 Washington State
 1-0 33 Won 58-7 over unrated New Mexico State
#25 Cincinnati 1-0 34 Won 24-14 over unrated UCLA

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

It's not just winning and losing that will cause a team to rise or drop in the rankings: struggling to beat an FCS team or an unranked (in top 50) FBS team can cause a team to sink in the rankings as well. So Alabama Birmingham, who had been ranked #8, falls all the way out of the rankings due to their 24-19 win over Alabama State, an FCS opponent.

#5 Georgia State and #6 Boise State each posted close wins over opponents that were not ranked in the preseason top 50 (Tennessee and Florida State), but they hold on to their spots for now because those wins came on the road, and when you take average home field advantage into account (3.5 points), those wins are no worse than #7 Mississippi State's 10 point win over unrated Louisiana on a neutral field. But if Tennessee or Florida State do poorly over the coming weeks, Georgia State and Boise State could start to sink in the rankings due to their close wins over those teams in week one.

Similarly, the fortunes of Nevada (now #14) are tied to those of Purdue (#15) due to Nevada's close home win over the Boilermakers. If either Nevada or Purdue does poorly, the other team's ranking will be adversely affected.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Virginia
#27 Ohio State
#28 Southern Cal
#29 Wisconsin
#30 Notre Dame
#31 Auburn
#32 Texas A&M
#33 Fresno State
#34 Texas San Antonio
#35 Appalachian State
#36 Eastern Michigan
#37 Memphis
#38 Mississippi
#39 Wyoming
#40 Northern Illinois
#41 Charlotte
#42 Texas Christian
#43 Missouri
#44 Indiana

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

We have just one game this week between top 25 teams: #3 Louisiana State at #22 Texas. But we also have several games featuring top 25 teams taking on nearly ranked opponents: #4 Central Michigan at #29 Wisconsin, #36 Eastern Michigan at #19 Kentucky, and #25 Cincinnati at #27 Ohio State. Furthermore, #41 Charlotte visits #35 Appalachian State. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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