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2019 TipTop 25 Week Eleven

Georgia Southern is picked first out of my hat for 2019

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Georgia Southern was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but they lost their opener 55-3 at previously unranked Louisiana State, so their stay at the top was brief.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

We Have a New #1

MS Paint portrait of an LSU player

We have a new #1 this week, and as the MS Paint portrait above serves to indicate, it is Louisiana State! LSU was not ranked in the preseason top 50, but they got off to a spectacular start, stomping on #1 Georgia Southern 55-3 in their opener. That moved them all the way to #3 in the next rankings, but obviously it has taken them a long time to go from there to #1.

I still think that Ohio State, who had been #1 last week, has performed better than LSU, and I think they would be a valid choice to remain #1, but after LSU's win at #4 Alabama this week, I can no longer ignore the fact that the Tigers have played a vastly tougher schedule than the Buckeyes have faced. LSU has now beaten teams that are currently ranked #3, #8, #9, and #20, while Ohio State has only beaten #11 and #15.

TipTop 25 After Week Eleven Games

Last week, our top 25 teams only took 3 upset losses, and this week our top 25 took another 3. That's a pretty low number, giving us a pretty stable ranking. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Louisiana State 9-0 2
 Won 46-41 at #4 Alabama (now #3)
#2 Ohio State 9-0 1
 Won 73-14 over unrated Maryland
#3 Alabama
 8-1 4
 Lost 46-41 to #2 Louisiana State (now #1)
#4 Clemson
 10-0 5
 Won 55-10 at unrated North Carolina State
#5 Minnesota 9-0 29 Won 31-26 over #3 Penn State (now #6)
#6 Penn State
 8-1 3
 Lost 31-26 at #29 Minnesota (now #5)
#7 Georgia
 8-1 6 Won 27-0 over unrated Missouri
#8 Florida 8-2 7
 Won 56-0 over unrated Vanderbilt
#9 Auburn 7-2 8 Did not play
#10 Oregon
 8-1 9 Did not play
#11 Wisconsin 7-2 10
 Won 24-22 over #12 Iowa (now #13)
#12 Michigan 7-2 11 Did not play
#13 Iowa
6-3 12
 Lost 24-22 at #10 Wisconsin (now #11)
#14 Baylor 9-0 14
 Won 29-23 in OT at #27 Texas Christian (now #25)
#15 Cincinnati
 8-1 13
 Won 48-3 over unrated Connecticut
#16 Memphis
 8-1 15 Did not play
#17 Navy
 7-1
 16 Did not play
#18 Southern Methodist
 9-1 19
 Won 59-51 over unrated East Carolina
#19 Oklahoma
 8-1 18 Won 42-41 over #26 Iowa State (now #24)
#20 Texas
 6-3 24 Won 27-24 over #17 Kansas State (now #21)
#21 Kansas State
 6-3 17 Lost 27-24 at #24 Texas (now #20)
#22 Notre Dame
 7-2 20 Won 38-7 at unrated Duke
#23 Oklahoma State
 6-3 25 Did not play
#24 Iowa State
 5-4 26 Lost 42-41 at #18 Oklahoma (now #19)
#25 Texas Christian
 4-5 27 Lost 29-23 in OT to #14 Baylor

Notes on Changes to This Week's TipTop 25

Baylor moves ahead of Cincinnati because the Bearcats had only attained one quality win, over Central Florida, but this week UCF took a second upset loss, sending them out of the rankings and leaving Cinci with no quality wins. Baylor has beaten 3 ranked teams.

Southern Methodist has been a consistently weak performer, but they have no upset losses, while Oklahoma has taken an upset loss to Kansas State (who lost to Texas this week), so SMU moves ahead of the Sooners.

#25 TCU may have a losing record, but all 5 of their losses have come to ranked teams, and their performance has been terrific. Four of those losses were very close, including an overtime decision against #14 Baylor this week, and all of their wins have come by more than a touchdown, including a 10-point victory over #20 Texas.

Boise State, who had been #21 last week, has taken an upset loss, and they have performed sickly, including an overtime win over unrated Wyoming at home this week. They may be 8-1, but they compare very poorly to TCU, and so it's time we dropped them out of the rankings. They only held on so long because they were ranked #6 in the preseason.

Temple, who had been #23 last week, falls out of the rankings despite winning this week. That is because they have previously lost to Central Florida, who took an upset loss this week and leaves the top 25, dragging Temple out the door with them.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26  Boise State
#27 Air Force
#28 Texas A&M
#29 Utah
#30 Mississippi State
#31 Appalachian State

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

It's showdown weekend for the TipTop 25! This week we have a big 5 games featuring top 25 teams: #5 Minnesota at #13 Iowa, #7 Georgia at #9 Auburn, #19 Oklahoma at #14 Baylor, #17 Navy at #22 Notre Dame, and #20 Texas at #24 Iowa State. In addition, #3 Alabama travels to #30 Mississippi State. On top of all that, another 7 ranked teams are playing on the road this week, so look for an upset or two. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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