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2019 TipTop 25 Week Ten

Georgia Southern is picked first out of my hat for 2019

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Georgia Southern was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but they lost their opener 55-3 at previously unranked Louisiana State, so their stay at the top was brief.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Ohio State Still #1

I pulled the Buckeyes out of my hat for the #41 slot in the preseason, and then they methodically worked their way upward week after week. In their opener, they defeated #44 Florida Atlantic 45-21 and moved up the list to #27. The next week, they blasted #25 Cincinnati 42-0, sending them up to #16. Then they stomped on #38 Indiana 51-10, on the road no less, and rose to #11. Next up was a 76-5 annihilation of unranked Miami (Ohio), and due to the struggles of teams ranked ahead of them that week, the Buckeyes found themselves ranked #5.

The next week, Ohio State again annihilated an unranked team, 48-7 at Nebraska, and again the teams ranked ahead of them struggled, enabling OSU to rise all the way to #1. Our previous #1, Navy, had lost 35-23 at Memphis, #2 Wisconsin had only won 24-15 over a bad Northwestern team (not nearly a good enough performance for a #1 team, or even top 10), #3 Kansas State had lost 26-13 at Oklahoma State, and #4 Mississippi State had been embarrassed 56-23 at Auburn. OSU has been #1 since then, but there has been a lot of pressure on them from below over the last month.

That pressure comes from #2 Louisiana State, who owns victories over teams that are currently ranked #7, #8, and #24, while Ohio State has only beaten #10 and #13. But as I have said many times on this site, just because a team plays a tougher schedule than another does not mean that that team is better than the other. LSU has played a tougher schedule, but Ohio State has performed better, and the Buckeyes remain on the throne here. But this week, LSU faces #4 Alabama, who is 8-0 and has routed everyone they have played. If LSU wins that game, the schedule difference may finally be too immense to ignore.

TipTop 25 After Week Ten Games

Last week, our top 25 teams took 5 upset losses, leading to a big shake-up in the rankings, as well as 4 new teams joining the list. But this week, only 3 teams took upset losses, and 2 of those were to other ranked teams, so we have much less of a shake-up, and only 1 new team enters the ratings. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Ohio State	8-0	1	Did not play
#2	Louisiana State	8-0	2	Did not play
#3	Penn State	8-0	3	Did not play
#4	Alabama	8-0	6	Did not play
#5	Clemson	9-0	8	Won 59-14 over an FCS team
#6	Georgia	7-1	24	Won 24-17 over #4 Florida in Jacksonville
#7	Florida	7-2	4	Lost 24-17 to #24 Georgia in Jacksonville
#8	Auburn	7-2	5	Won 20-14 over unrated Mississippi
#9	Oregon	8-1	9	Won 56-24 at unrated Southern Cal
#10	Wisconsin	6-2	10	Did not play
#11	Michigan	7-2	11	Won 38-7 at Maryland
#12	Iowa	6-2	13	Did not play
#13	Cincinnati	7-1	12	Won 46-43 at unrated East Carolina
#14	Baylor	8-0	14	Won 17-14 over unrated West Virginia
#15	Memphis	8-1	21	Won 54-48 over #15 Southern Methodist
#16	Navy	7-1	22	Won 56-10 at unrated Connecticut
#17	Kansas State	6-2	18	Won 38-10 at unrated Kansas
#18	Oklahoma	7-1	19	Did not play
#19	Southern Methodist	8-1	15	Lost 54-48 at #21 Memphis
#20	Notre Dame	6-2	25	Won 21-20 over unrated Virginia Tech
#21	Boise State	7-1	16	Won 52-42 at unrated San Jose State
#22	Central Florida	7-2	17	Won 44-29 over unrated Houston
#23	Temple	5-3	20	Did not play
#24	Texas	5-3	23	Did not play
#25	Oklahoma State	6-3	26	Won 34-27 over #28 Texas Christian

Notes on Changes to This Week's TipTop 25

This week, Memphis, who had been ranked #21, beat SMU, who had been #15, and that sends Memphis up the list to take SMU's spot. Navy, whose only loss has come to Memphis, and who was ranked #4 in the preseason, rises up the list right behind Memphis.

Kansas State and Oklahoma move up past a few teams for a number of reasons. First of all, KSU's schedule and performance have been looking a bit better of late, and at this point, they have beaten 3 ranked or nearly-ranked teams, and the upset loss they took is now to the #25 team. They were ranked #23 in the preseason. And ranked behind KSU, Oklahoma does not have an upset loss at all, and their performance has been extremely strong. SMU's performance, on the other hand, has been weak, so they fall back behind the Sooners.

Notre Dame's result this week, 21-20 over an unrated team at home, was not impressive, but they rise anyway thanks to Georgia's big win over Florida. Notre Dame had been trapped right behind Georgia, who had beaten them early in the season, so now that Georgia has shot up into the top 10, Notre Dame is free to rise up a bit. Both of Dame's losses have come to higher-ranked teams, whereas Boise State, whom the Irish pass up, has taken a loss to an unranked team.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Iowa State
#27 Texas Christian
#28 Air Force
#29 Minnesota
#30 Louisville
#31 Wake Forest
#32 Texas A&M
#33 Utah
#34 Mississippi State
#35 Appalachian State
#36 Virginia

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This week we have 3 games featuring top 25 teams: #2 LSU at #4 Alabama, #12 Iowa at #10 Wisconsin, and #17 Kansas State at #24 Texas. In addition, we have 3 ranked teams playing 3 nearly-ranked teams: #3 Penn State at #29 Minnesota (who is 8-0 and playing their first decent opponent), #14 Baylor at #27 Texas Christian, and #26 Iowa State at #18 Oklahoma. There is one other game of note, 6-2 Wyoming visiting #21 Boise State. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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