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2019 TipTop 25 Week Nine

Georgia Southern is picked first out of my hat for 2019

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Georgia Southern was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but they lost their opener 55-3 at previously unranked Louisiana State, so their stay at the top was brief.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Ohio State Still #1

I pulled the Buckeyes out of my hat for the #41 slot in the preseason, and then they methodically worked their way upward week after week. In their opener, they defeated #44 Florida Atlantic 45-21 and moved up the list to #27. The next week, they blasted #25 Cincinnati 42-0, sending them up to #16. Then they stomped on #38 Indiana 51-10, on the road no less, and rose to #11. Next up was a 76-5 annihilation of unranked Miami (Ohio), and due to the struggles of teams ranked ahead of them that week, the Buckeyes found themselves ranked #5.

The next week, Ohio State again annihilated an unranked team, 48-7 at Nebraska, and again the teams ranked ahead of them struggled, enabling OSU to rise all the way to #1. Our previous #1, Navy, had lost 35-23 at Memphis, #2 Wisconsin had only won 24-15 over a bad Northwestern team (not nearly a good enough performance for a #1 team, or even top 10), #3 Kansas State had lost 26-13 at Oklahoma State, and #4 Mississippi State had been embarrassed 56-23 at Auburn. OSU has been #1 since then, but there has been tremendous pressure on them from below for the last 3 weeks.

That pressure comes from #2 Louisiana State, who owns victories over teams that are currently ranked #4, #5, and #23, while Ohio State has only beaten #10 and #12. But as I have said many times on this site, just because a team plays a tougher schedule than another does not mean that that team is better than the other. I think LSU could be ranked #1, but Ohio State has performed better, so they hold onto the throne here. This week, LSU defeated #5 Auburn 23-20, while Ohio State beat #10 Wisconsin 38-7. But the real problem for LSU this week was Texas' upset loss at unranked TCU. That sends Texas down the list from #9 to #23, and LSU previously beat Texas by just 8 points, a poor effort for a #1 team facing a #23 team. Ohio State, on the other hand, has routed everyone they've played.

TipTop 25 After Week Nine Games

Last week, our top 25 teams took just 3 upset losses, and only 1 new team entered the rankings, but this week we've seen 5 upset losses, leading to a bigger shake-up in the rankings, as well as 4 new teams joining the list. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Ohio State	8-0	1	Won 38-7 over #12 Wisconsin (now #10)
#2	Louisiana State	8-0	2	Won 23-20 over #5 Auburn
#3	Penn State	8-0	3	Won 28-7 at unrated Michigan State
#4	Florida	7-1	4	Did not play
#5	Auburn	6-2	5	Lost 23-20 at #2 Louisiana State
#6	Alabama	8-0	7	Won 48-7 over unrated Arkansas
#7	Appalachian State	8-0	10	Won 30-3 at unrated South Alabama
#8	Clemson	8-0	11	Won 59-7 over unrated Boston College
#9	Oregon	7-1	8	Won 37-35 over unrated Washington State
#10	Wisconsin	6-2	12	Lost 38-7 at #1 Ohio State
#11	Michigan	6-2	13	Won 45-14 over #27 Notre Dame (now #25)
#12	Cincinnati	6-1	17	Did not play
#13	Iowa	6-2	14	Won 20-0 at unrated Northwestern
#14	Baylor	7-0	15	Did not play
#15	Southern Methodist	8-0	18	Won 34-31 at unrated Houston
#16	Boise State	6-1	19	Did not play
#17	Central Florida	6-2	Unrated	Won 63-21 at #20 Temple
#18	Kansas State	5-2	Unrated	Won 48-41 over #6 Oklahoma (now #19)
#19	Oklahoma	7-1	6	Lost 48-41 at unrated Kansas State (now #18)
#20	Temple	5-3	20	Lost 63-21 to unrated Central Florida (now #17)
#21	Memphis	7-1	21	Won 42-41 at unrated Tulsa
#22	Navy	6-1	22	Won 41-38 over unrated Tulane
#23	Texas	5-3	9	Lost 37-27 at unrated Texas Christian
#24	Georgia	6-1	26	Won 21-0 over unrated Kentucky
#25	Notre Dame	5-2	27	Lost 45-14 at #13 Michigan (now #11)

Notes on Changes to This Week's TipTop 25

Cincinnati moves past Iowa and Baylor because, outside of their loss to #1 Ohio State, their performance has been very strong, and furthermore, they have previously beaten Central Florida, who has moved into the top 25 this week (#17) and given the Bearcats a quality win. Lastly, Cincinnati was ranked #34 in the preseason rankings, while Iowa and Baylor had not been ranked in the preseason top 50.

Wake Forest had been ranked #23 last week, but they drop out of the top 25 even though they didn't play this week. The main reason for this is Utah State, whom they defeated in their opener. That has been Wake's big win all year, but this week Utah State was smashed 31-7 at unrated Air Force, seriously devaluing Wake's one big accomplishment. In fact, I've decided to drop Wake Forest behind Louisville, the team that beat them (this week Louisville defeated Virginia, who had been ranked #31). That leaves the Demon Deacons at #31, as covered below. Utah State, who, again, lost to Wake Forest, and San Diego State, who lost to Utah State, fall out of the top 25 as well, back behind Wake Forest.

Finally, a word about Minnesota, who has never managed to crack the top 25 this season despite winning every game. Currently, they sit at #34, well back of the top 25. Why? Well, first of all, they were not ranked in the preseason top 50. And they have not played a ranked or nearly ranked team in their 8 games since then. Lastly, their performance in their first 4 games was abysmal: all close wins over bad teams. This includes a 28-21 home win over an FCS school.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Oklahoma State
#27 Iowa State
#28 Texas Christian
#29 Air Force
#30 Louisville
#31 Wake Forest
#32 Utah State
#33 San Diego State
#34 Minnesota
#35 Utah
#36 Texas A&M
#37 Virginia
#38 Wyoming

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This week, 9 ranked teams do not play, and another 5 nearly-ranked teams are off as well. Still, like last week, we have 2 games featuring top 25 teams: #4 Florida faces #24 Georgia in Jacksonville, and #15 SMU travels to #21 Memphis. There is one other game of note, #28 TCU visiting #26 Oklahoma State. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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