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2016 TipTop 25 Week Six

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that UNLV was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but in week two they were drubbed 42-21 at previously unranked UCLA, ending their brief stay at the top.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Ohio State Remains #1

Ohio State started the season ranked #37. However, after demolishing #18 Bowling Green 77-10 in their opener, they shot up the rankings to #12, and after routing #9 Tulsa 48-3 in week two, they moved up to #3. Finally, in week five, #1 Louisville lost at Clemson and #2 Michigan edged previously-unrated Wisconsin by only 7 points at home, clearing the way for Ohio State to move to the top of the rankings. This week they beat Indiana 38-17, and Tulsa, their week two victim, is now 4-1 and back in the rankings, further helping the Buckeyes' cause.

Top 25 After Week Six Games

This week, 6 of our top 25 teams took "upset" losses, which may sound like a lot, but it's actually significantly fewer than we've had the previous 3 weeks. Last week, for example, 9 teams in our top 25 took losses to lower-ranked teams. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Ohio State	5-0	1	Won 38-17 over Indiana
#2	Michigan	6-0	2	Won 78-0 at Rutgers
#3	Washington	6-0	3	Won 70-21 at Oregon
#4	Texas A&M	6-0	6	Won 45-38 in overtime over #11 Tennessee
#5	Clemson	6-0	7	Won 56-10 at Boston College
#6	Louisville	4-1	8	Did not play
#7	Baylor	5-0	9	Did not play
#8	Tennessee	5-1	11	Lost 45-38 in overtime at #6 Texas A&M
#9	Alabama	6-0	12	Won 49-30 at #27 Arkansas (now #22)
#10	Auburn	4-2	14	Won 38-14 at Mississippi State
#11	Western Michigan	6-0	17	Won 45-30 over Northern Illinois
#12	Troy	4-1	13	Did not play
#13	Wisconsin	4-1	15	Did not play
#14	Nebraska	5-0	19	Did not play
#15	Virginia Tech	4-1	Unranked	Won 34-3 over North Carolina (now #27)
#16	Mississippi	4-2	22	Did not play
#17	Boise State	5-0	25	Won 49-21 at New Mexico
#18	Memphis	4-1	23	Won 34-27 over Temple
#19	Air Force	4-1	18	Lost 35-26 at unranked Wyoming
#20	Navy	4-1	Unranked	Won 46-40 over #4 Houston
#21	Houston	5-1	4	Lost 46-40 at unranked Navy
#22	Arkansas	4-2	27	Lost 49-30 to #12 Alabama
#23	Tulsa	4-1	Unranked	Won 43-40 in overtime over Southern Methodist
#24	Oklahoma	3-2	20	Won 45-40 over Texas in Dallas
#25	West Virginia	4-0	24	Did not play

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

This week's big result was previously-unranked Navy's 46-40 upset of #4 Houston. That result saved Air Force, who was upset at unranked Wyoming this week, and would have been knocked out of the rankings, but whose 28-14 win over Navy the previous week now looks terrific and keeps them ranked. For now.

Virginia Tech comes storming into the rankings at #15 primarily because of Miami-Florida. Miami, you see, had been ranked #10 last week, but this week the Hurricanes were knocked off at home by unranked Florida State. FSU had been knocked off at home the previous week by North Carolina. And this week, Virginia Tech smashed UNC 34-3. Furthermore, Virginia Tech's only loss has come to #8 Tennessee, and all their wins have been routs.

Tulsa has been performing rather poorly, but they had been ranked #14 in the preseason, and their only loss has come to #1 Ohio State, so they're back now at #23. Similar could be said for the teams ranked around them: Arkansas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia were all ranked in the preseason top 50, and though all have performed poorly, all have avoided upset losses so far.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Georgia
#27 North Carolina
#28 Florida State
#29 Miami (Florida)
#30 Louisiana State
#31 Utah
#32 San Diego State
#33 Texas Christian

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Next week we have 3 games that feature teams in our top 25: #1 Ohio State at #13 Wisconsin, #9 Alabama at #8 Tennessee, and #16 Mississippi at #22 Arkansas.

In addition, among teams just outside our top 25, #29 Miami-Florida hosts #27 North Carolina.

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