Home

2016 TipTop 25 Week Five

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that UNLV was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but in week two they were drubbed 42-21 at previously unranked UCLA, ending their brief stay at the top.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

We Have a New Team at #1

#1 Louisville was "upset" last week at previously-unrated Clemson, so this week we have a new team at #1. And as you can see by my MSPaint commemorating the event, that team is Ohio State. Ohio State started the season ranked #37. However, after demolishing #18 Bowling Green 77-10 in their opener, they shot up the rankings to #12, and after routing #9 Tulsa 48-3 in week two, they moved up to #3. This week, in addition to #1 Louisville losing, #2 Michigan beat previously-unrated Wisconsin by only 7 points at home, and so Ohio State ascends to the top of our rankings.

Top 25 After Week Five Games

Nine of our ranked teams took losses in each of the previous 2 weeks, but this week, that was topped by ten teams in our rankings getting beat! This leads to the biggest shakeup we've had yet in the rankings, including the entrance of ten new teams that were not ranked last week. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Ohio State	4-0	3	Won 58-0 over Rutgers
#2	Michigan	5-0	2	Won 14-7 over unranked Wisconsin (now #15)
#3	Washington	5-0	15	Won 44-6 over #4 Stanford
#4	Houston	5-0	6	Won 42-14 over Connecticut
#5	Stanford	3-1	4	Lost 44-6 at #15 Washington
#6	Texas A&M	5-0	20	Won 24-13 at South Carolina
#7	Clemson	5-0	Unranked	Won 42-36 over #1 Louisville
#8	Louisville	4-1	1	Lost 42-36 at unranked Clemson (now #8)
#9	Baylor	5-0	5	Won 45-42 at unranked Iowa State
#10	Miami (Florida)	4-0	Unranked	Won 35-21 at unranked Georgia Tech (now #21)
#11	Tennessee	5-0	Unranked	Won 34-31 at unranked Georgia
#12	Alabama	5-0	25	Won 34-6 over Kentucky
#13	Troy	4-1	Unranked	Won 34-13 at Idaho
#14	Auburn	3-2	Unranked	Won 58-7 over Louisiana-Monroe
#15	Wisconsin	4-1	Unranked	Lost 14-7 at #2 Michigan
#16	Colorado	4-1	9	Won 47-6 over Oregon State
#17	Western Michigan	5-0	12	Won 49-10 at Central Michigan
#18	Air Force	4-0	13	Won 28-14 over Navy
#19	Nebraska	5-0	14	Won 31-16 over Illinois
#20	Oklahoma	2-2	Unranked	Won 52-46 at unranked Texas Christian
#21	Georgia Tech	3-2	Unranked	Lost 35-21 to unranked Miami-Florida (now #10)
#22	Mississippi	3-2	Unranked	Won 48-28 over #7 Memphis
#23	Memphis	3-1	7	Lost 48-28 at unranked Mississippi (now #22)
#24	West Virginia	4-0	23	Won 17-16 over unranked Kansas State
#25	Boise State	4-0	Unranked	Won 21-10 over Utah State

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

This week's big result is previously-unranked Clemson's 42-36 home win over #1 Louisville. That result doesn't just send Clemson shooting up into the top 10, it also puts another pair of previously-unranked teams, Troy and Auburn, into the top 25. Auburn had lost 19-13 at home to Clemson in week one, and Troy had lost 30-24 at Clemson the next week. Troy hasn't lost any other games, and Auburn 's other loss came 29-16 at home to now-#6 Texas A&M. And that brings up another side effect of Clemson's win over Louisville: 5-0 Texas A&M's rise from #20 to #6 (their Auburn win holds much more value now).

Stanford only drops from #4 to #5 despite losing 44-6, and that is because almost everyone else has had poor performances too, and this is Stanford's first. Their biggest advantage is that they were ranked #6 in the random preseason ratings.

Unbeatens Miami (Florida), Tennessee, and Alabama were all unranked in the preseason top 50, but they all move up this week due to the fact that they have some accomplishments to their credit by now. Miami has won every game by more than a touchdown, Tennessee has performed weakly but beaten an amazing 5 teams with winning records, and Alabama has won handily in all games but one, a road win over a rated opponent (#22 Mississippi). They pass up a group of teams that were rated in the preseason, but have fewer accomplishments under their belts. Colorado and Nebraska, as examples, were hurt by Oregon's trouncing at unranked Washington State this week, as the Ducks had been the only good team either had beaten.

2-2 Oklahoma and 3-2 Georgia Tech, who had both been rated in the preseason, are back in the top 25, not because they have done that much, but because their losses have come to rated opponents, and everyone else in contention for these spots has been struggling or even losing to unranked opponents.

And then there is Mississippi, the first team to make our top 25 this year carrying a loss to a currently-unranked opponent. That was their opener, a 45-35 decision that went to Florida State. But this week, Florida State was upset at home by North Carolina, who had previously been drubbed by Georgia, who had previously been destroyed 45-14 by Mississippi. Also this week, Mississippi routed previous-#7 Memphis 48-28. On top of all that, the Rebels' 5-point loss to now-#12 Alabama looks pretty good right now.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Louisiana State
#27 Arkansas
#28 Southern Miss
#29 Texas Christian
#30 Maryland

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Not a lot of excitement in our top 25 this week: #11 Tennessee at #6 Texas A&M is our only game between rated teams. It will be interesting to see what novel way Tennessee finds to come back from a double-digit deficit this week. Or perhaps their bag of tricks has finally been emptied?

#12 Alabama also visits #27 Arkansas, and #26 LSU visits 4-1 Florida.

Home