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2015 TipTop 25 Week Nine

Welcome back again to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Duke was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot. But they've lost their 2nd game this week, in a controversial and crazy ending against Miami (Florida), and now they are 6-2 and barely holding on in the top 25, slot #25 in fact.

As the games are played, I am ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, to a lesser degree each week, on where they were randomly ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Baylor Still #1

MS Paint of Baylor football player, 2015

Baylor hasn't beaten a good team yet. The main reason they're #1 is because, out of all the currently unbeaten teams, Baylor was ranked highest in the preseason. But in addition, no one has come within a touchdown of them. Clemson, LSU, and Iowa have beaten much better opponents than Baylor has, and it wouldn't take much to push one or more of them past Baylor for #1, but as long as Baylor doesn't even have a close game, there is little reason to drop them.

Top 25 After Games of Week Nine

Last week only 3 of our top 25 teams took a loss to a lower-ranked team, and this week we had our lowest number of upsets yet, with just 2 teams getting tripped up. We seem to have stabilized. Only 6 teams from our randomly selected preseason top 25 remain ranked in this week's TipTop 25:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Baylor	7-0	1	Off
#2	Clemson	7-0	4	Won 56-41 at unrated North Carolina State (5-3)
#3	Notre Dame	7-1	6	Won 24-20 at #18 Temple
#4	Iowa	8-0	3	Won 31-15 over unrated Maryland
#5	Louisiana State	7-0	2	Off
#6	Texas Christian	8-0	5	Won 40-10 over unrated West Virginia
#7	Florida	7-1	15	Won 27-3 over unrated Georgia (5-3)
#8	Michigan State	8-0	7	Off
#9	Utah	7-1	14	Won 27-12 over unrated Oregon State
#10	Michigan	6-2	8	Won 29-26 at unrated Minnesota
#11	Northwestern	6-2	9	Off
#12	Stanford	7-1	10	Won 30-28 at unrated Washington State (5-3)
#13	Southern Cal	5-3	13	Won 27-21 at #27 California
#14	Ohio State	8-0	11	Off
#15	Memphis	8-0	16	Won 41-13 over unrated Tulane
#16	Mississippi	7-2	17	Won 27-19 at unrated Auburn
#17	Alabama	7-1	18	Off
#18	Temple	7-1	20	Lost 24-20 to #3 Notre Dame
#19	Houston	8-0	19	Won 34-0 over unrated Vanderbilt
#20	Toledo	7-0	21	Off
#21	Oklahoma State	8-0	22	Won 70-53 at unrated Texas Tech
#22	Texas A&M	6-2	23	Won 35-28 over unrated South Carolina
#23	Mississippi State	6-2	28	Off
#24	Wisconsin	7-2	29	Won 48-10 over unrated Rutgers
#25	Duke	6-2	12	Lost 30-27 to unrated Miami (Florida)

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

I do not rate teams the way the AP poll does, so a team's movement up or down is not just based on winning or losing their latest game. It's also based on how they've performed (a close win over an unrated opponent is a poor performance), and on how the teams they've previously played have done this week.

Notre Dame's rise to #3 has been been fueled by beating their 3rd straight ranked or near-ranked opponent, the latest being #18 Temple on the road. They have given 2 of those teams their only loss, and Notre Dame's only loss was by 2 points at #2 Clemson.

Florida had 3 straight poor performances in September, and their ranking has been hurt by that, but in October they've had 4 straight strong performances, the latest a 27-3 win over unrated 5-3 Georgia. So I'm going to de-emphasize their earlier poor performances for now, and that moves Florida way up in the rankings. Their best result may have been their 7 point loss at #5 LSU, but they also defeated #16 Mississippi 38-10.

Utah also moves up in the rankings, but that's mostly because I think I overreacted to their loss at Southern Cal last week, so this is really a readjustment. But I'm keeping Southern Cal ranked highly, despite their 3 losses, until they prove otherwise. Their 27-21 win at #27 Cal this week was their 2nd straight win over a rated or near-rated opponent.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked: UCLA, California, Brigham Young, Navy, Appalachian State, Penn State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Florida State, and Marshall.

Five of these teams are playing ranked opponents this week, a chance for each to potentially break into the top 25. Navy is at #15 Memphis, Penn State at #11 Northwestern, Florida State at #2 Clemson, North Carolina hosts #25 Duke, and Pittsburgh hosts #3 Notre Dame.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

We've had a weak slate of games for our top 25 the last 2 weeks, but this week we've got a much better lineup. That's mostly thanks to the 5 games between ranked and near-ranked teams listed above, but in addition, #5 LSU visits #17 Alabama and #6 Texas Christian hosts #21 Oklahoma State. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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