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2015 TipTop 25 Week Eight

Welcome back again to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Duke was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but they lost in week 3 to Northwestern, and currently they are 6-1 and ranked #12.

As the games are played, I am ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, to a lesser degree each week, on where they were randomly ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Our New #1

MS Paint of Baylor football player, 2015

Here's a little MS Paint I did to commemorate our new #1 Baylor. Last week's #1 team, Utah, was smashed by previously unrated Southern Cal this weekend. But Baylor's grasp on #1 is very precarious, as they haven't beaten a good team yet. The main reason they're #1 is because, out of all the currently unbeaten teams, Baylor was ranked highest in the preseason. Also, no one has come within a touchdown of them. But LSU and Iowa are very close to being #1 themselves, as they have played much better schedules.

Top 25 After Games of Week Eight

Last week 5 of our top 25 teams took a loss to a lower-ranked team, but this week it was only 3. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Baylor	7-0	2	Won 45-27 over unrated Iowa State
#2	Louisiana State	7-0	5	Won 48-20 over unrated Western Kentucky (6-2)
#3	Iowa	7-0	4	Off
#4	Clemson	7-0	3	Won 58-0 at unrated Miami-Florida
#5	Texas Christian	7-0	6	Off
#6	Notre Dame	6-1	7	Off
#7	Michigan State	8-0	9	Won 52-26 over unrated Indiana
#8	Michigan	5-2	10	Off
#9	Northwestern	6-2	13	Won 30-28 at unrated Nebraska
#10	Stanford	6-1	14	Won 31-14 over unrated Washington
#11	Ohio State	7-0	17	Won 49-7 at unrated Rutgers
#12	Duke	6-1	15	Won 45-43 over unrated Virginia Tech in overtime
#13	Southern Cal	4-3	Unrated	Won 42-24 over #14 Utah
#14	Utah	6-1	1	Lost 42-24 at #13 Southern Cal
#15	Florida	6-1	11	Off
#16	Memphis	7-0	16	Won 66-42 at unrated Tulsa
#17	Mississippi	6-2	22	Won 23-3 over #23 Texas A&M
#18	Alabama	7-1	23	Won 19-14 over unrated Tennessee
#19	Houston	7-0	18	Won 59-10 at unrated Central Florida
#20	Temple	7-0	19	Won 24-14 at unrated East Carolina
#21	Toledo	7-0	20	Won 51-35 at unrated Massachusetts
#22	Oklahoma State	7-0	21	Won 58-10 over unrated Kansas
#23	Texas A&M	5-2	24	Lost 23-3 at #17 Mississippi
#24	Arizona State	4-3	Unrated	Off
#25	UCLA	5-2	Unrated	Won 40-24 over previously #12 California

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

I do not rate teams the way the AP poll does, so a team's movement up or down is not just based on winning or losing their latest game. It's also based on how they've performed (a close win over an unrated opponent is a poor performance), and on how the teams they've previously played have done this week.

Northwestern has performed very poorly in 4 of their last 5 games, but they are still ranked #9. Why? Because their 2 losses have come to teams ranked #3 and #8, and they have beaten #10 Stanford and #12 Duke. There isn't much room for them to drop until they lose to a mediocre team, or until Stanford and Duke start losing. Northwestern almost got clipped by mediocre Nebraska this week, but they survived.

Florida State's 1 loss has sent them all the way out of the top 25. Why? Because that loss came to a 3-5 team, and FSU hasn't actually beaten a good team yet.

A pair of 4-3 teams storm into the top 25 this week, Southern Cal and Arizona State. USC moves in because of their huge rout of previous #1 Utah this week. And they have beaten a 2nd top 25 team, Arizona State, also in a rout. ASU moves in because they won 38-23 at 5-2 UCLA a few weeks ago, and this week UCLA routed California, who had been ranked #12 last week. UCLA comes in at #25.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked: Brigham Young, California, Mississippi State, Wisconsin, Navy, Appalachian State, Penn State, and Pittsburgh.

California hosts #13 Southern Cal this week, their big chance to return to the top 25.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

We had a weak slate of games for our top 25 on Saturday, and next week is more of the same. Once again there is only one matchup of rated teams, this time #6 Notre Dame at #20 Temple. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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