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2015 TipTop 25 Week Three

Welcome back again to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Duke was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but this week they fell 19-10 to last week's #24 team, Northwestern, and will no longer be our top dog.

As the games are played, I am ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, to a lesser degree each week, on where they were randomly ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Our New #1

Here is a little MS Paint I made to commemorate our new #1 Florida State. I pulled FSU out of my hat for the #21 slot in the preseason, and they made an immediate impression when they stomped on preseason #6 Texas State 59-16 in their season opener. That moved them all the way up to #3, but this week left no doubt about who should be #1, because #1 Duke lost, #2 California struggled to win 45-44 at unrated Texas, and Florida State won 14-0 at #4 Boston College, their second victory of the year over a team that was ranked in the top 10 at the time of the game. At this point, no one is close to FSU for #1.

Top 25 After Games of Week Three

7 of our top 25 teams were upset in week 1, 6 in week 2, and this week 5 of our top 25 teams lost to a lower-rated team. We appear to be stabilizing a bit each week. Still, our top 25 sees a big shakeup each week because teams can drop just for having a close win over an unrated opponent, as there is little other data to go on yet. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Florida State	3-0	3	Won 14-0 at previous #4 Boston College (now #7)
#2	North Carolina State	3-0	5	Won 38-14 at unrated Old Dominion
#3	Utah	3-0	6	Won 45-24 at unrated Fresno State
#4	Baylor	2-0	7	Off
#5	Michigan	2-1	8	Won 28-7 over unrated UNLV
#6	California	3-0	2	Won 45-44 at unrated Texas
#7	Boston College	2-1	4	Lost 14-0 at previous #3 Florida State (now #1)
#8	Texas Christian	3-0	9	Won 56-37 over unrated Southern Methodist
#9	Georgia	3-0	11	Won 52-20 over unrated South Carolina
#10	Northwestern	3-0	24	Won 19-10 at previous #1 Duke (now #12)
#11	Notre Dame	3-0	12	Won 30-22 over near-rated Georgia Tech
#12	Duke	2-1	1	Lost 19-10 to previous #24 Northwestern (now #10)
#13	Arizona	3-0	17	Won 77-13 over an FCS team
#14	Stanford	2-1	Unrated	Won 41-31 at previous #16 Southern Cal (now #20)
#15	Mississippi	3-0	27	Won 43-37 at previous #23 Alabama (now #16)
#16	Alabama	2-1	23	Lost 43-37 to previous #27 Mississippi (now #15)
#17	Oklahoma	3-0	15	Won 52-38 over unrated Tulsa
#18	Oklahoma State	3-0	Unrated	Won 69-14 over unrated Texas-San Antonio
#19	Syracuse	3-0	10	Won 30-27 in overtime over unrated Central Michigan
#20	Southern Cal	2-1	16	Lost 41-31 to previously unrated Stanford (now #14)
#21	Tennessee	2-1	28	Won 55-10 over an FCS team
#22	Clemson	3-0	20	Won 20-17 at unrated Louisville
#23	Texas A&M	3-0	31	Won 44-27 over unrated Nevada
#24	UCLA	3-0	29	Won 24-23 over previously unrated BYU (now nearly rated)
#25	Miami-Florida	3-0	26	Won 36-33 in overtime over unrated Nebraska

Counting Notre Dame, we had 13 major conference teams in our top 25 in the preseason, 20 after week one, 22 after week two, and now all of the teams in our top 25 come from major conferences (or are Notre Dame). It hasn't taken long at all to winnow out the mid-major teams, even when we rate teams "blindly," ignoring their histories.

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

I do not rate teams the way the AP poll does, so a team's movement up or down is not just based on winning or losing their latest game. It's also based on how the teams they've previously played have done this week, and on how they've performed (a close win over an unrated opponent is a poor performance). As a perfect example of both, this week, previous #17 Temple and #19 Penn State both fell out of the rankings, even though both won their games. Why? Because Temple only won 25-23 over unrated Massachusetts, after beating an unrated opponent by only a touchdown the week before. Two poor performances is one too many, and Temple is gone. And Penn State falls out because they lost to Temple 27-10 in their opener.

2-1 Minnesota, ranked #13 last week, might have held on in the top 25 after winning only 10-7 over unrated Kent State this week, but they fall out because Colorado State (#14) lost to unrated Colorado, throwing CSU out, and Minnesota had previously beaten CSU in an overtime game. So Minnesota now has 2 poor performances, where last week they had none.

Stanford comes roaring into the top 25 at #14 not just because they won 41-31 at previous #16 Southern Cal, but because their loss to Northwestern in their opener hurts them a whole lot less now that Northwestern has beaten previous #1 Duke and moved up to #10.

Oklahoma State's rise, coming into the top 25 at #18, is due to comparative scoring. They've beaten Central Michigan better than has #19 Syracuse, and they've beaten Texas-San Antonio better than has #13 Arizona.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked (in this order): Ohio State, Brigham Young, Boise State, Washington, Ohio, Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Michigan State, Oregon, Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, Temple, Penn State, Buffalo, Air Force, Louisiana State, Mississippi State, Nebraska.

There are 7 mid-major teams waiting to get in here. The closest, BYU, will get their chance to crash the party when they visit #5 Michigan next week. The AP poll's #1 team, Ohio State, is also knocking on the door, though they would have gotten in this week had they not posted a close win over an unrated opponent on Saturday.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Just one game between rated teams this week, #24 UCLA visiting #13 Arizona. But a pair of the AP poll's highly rated teams will get a chance to prove themselves this week, as Oregon is hosting my #3 Utah and LSU is visiting #19 Syracuse. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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