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2015 TipTop 25 Week Six

Welcome back again to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Duke was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but they lost in week 3 to Northwestern, and currently they are 5-1 and ranked #10.

As the games are played, I am ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, to a lesser degree each week, on where they were randomly ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Utah Still #1

I pulled Utah out of my hat for the #17 slot in the preseason, and they got off to a great start when they defeated #15 Michigan 24-17 in the first week. Michigan has won the rest of their games by big scores since then, and this week Utah defeated #9 Cal, and Michigan defeated #4 Northwestern, so these teams are now solidly fixed at #1 and #2.

Top 25 After Games of Week Six

Last week 7 of our top 25 teams were upset, the most since the first week of games, but this week only 4 were upset, so we'll see less of a shake-up in the rankings. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Utah	5-0	1	Won 30-24 over #9 California
#2	Michigan	5-1	3	Won 38-0 over #4 Northwestern
#3	Baylor	5-0	4	Won 66-7 at unrated Kansas
#4	Northwestern	5-1	5	Lost 38-0 at #2 Michigan
#5	Texas Christian	6-0	11	Won 52-45 at #25 Kansas State
#6	Stanford	4-1	7	Off
#7	Clemson	5-0	9	Won 43-24 over unrated Georgia Tech
#8	Florida State	5-0	2	Won 29-24 over unrated Miami-Florida
#9	California	5-1	20	Lost 30-24 at #1 Utah
#10	Duke	5-1	6	Won 44-3 at unrated Army
#11	Notre Dame	5-1	10	Won 41-24 over #27 Navy
#12	Florida	6-0	13	Won 21-3 at unrated Missouri
#13	Mississippi	5-1	14	Won 52-3 over unrated New Mexico State
#14	Alabama	5-1	15	Won 27-14 over unrated Arkansas
#15	Texas A&M	5-0	18	Off
#16	Louisiana State	5-0	19	Won 45-24 at unrated South Carolina
#17	Iowa	6-0	25	Won 29-20 over unrated Illinois
#18	Oklahoma State	6-0	24	Won 33-26 in overtime at unrated West Virginia
#19	Ohio State	6-0	21	Won 49-28 over unrated Maryland
#20	Houston	5-0	unrated	Won 49-28 over unrated SMU
#21	Temple	5-0	27	Won 49-10 over unrated Tulane
#22	Penn State	5-1	29	Won 29-7 over unrated Indiana
#23	Texas Tech	4-2	26	Won 66-31 over unrated Iowa State
#24	Toledo	5-0	unrated	Won 38-7 over unrated Kent State
#25	Kansas State	3-2	unrated	Lost 52-45 to #5 Texas Christian

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

I do not rate teams the way the AP poll does, so a team's movement up or down is not just based on winning or losing their latest game. It's also based on how they've performed (a close win over an unrated opponent is a poor performance), and on how the teams they've previously played have done this week.

Northwestern got blown out badly by Michigan, 38-0, but they are still ranked #4. Why? Because they have beaten #6 Stanford and #10 Duke, and #1 Utah is the only other team that has beaten 2 top 10 opponents.

TCU moved up from #11 to #5 not just because they defeated Kansas State this week, but because 3 teams they'd beaten earlier in the season won big this weekend, led by Texas, who upset Oklahoma (ranked #12 last week).

Florida State had dropped from #1 to #2 because of a close win over an unrated team last week, and this week they posted another weak performance, so they drop even further, down to #9. Speaking of which, 6-0 Michigan State, ranked #23 last week, has fallen out of the top 25 this week, following their 3rd close win over an unrated opponent this season. Michigan State has not beaten a good team yet, and they are a perfect example of a team whose high rating in the AP poll rests entirely on what they've done in the past.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked: Mississippi State, Navy, Memphis, Michigan State, Boise State, Washington, Southern Cal, Arizona State, UCLA, Brigham Young, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Marshall.

5 of these teams play top 25 opponents this week, a big chance for each of them to move up dramatically: 5-0 Memphis hosts #13 Mississippi, 6-0 Michigan State at #2 Michigan, 3-2 Southern Cal at #11 Notre Dame, 4-2 Arizona State at #1 Utah, and 4-1 UCLA at #6 Stanford.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

We've got 4 games between top 25 opponents this week: #17 Iowa at #4 Northwestern, #12 Florida at #16 LSU, #14 Alabama at #15 Texas A&M, and #22 Penn State at #19 Ohio State. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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