Tip Top 25 in helmets, smaller
                                                    Home

2015 TipTop 25 Week Four

Picking Duke out of a hat CFB 2015

Welcome back again to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Duke was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but they lost in week 3 to Northwestern, and now they are ranked behind the Wildcats at #7 (as you will see in this week's top 25 below).

As the games are played, I am ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, to a lesser degree each week, on where they were randomly ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Top 25 After Games of Week Four

7 of our top 25 teams were upset in week 1, 6 in week 2, 5 in week 3, and this week only 3 teams lost to a lower-rated team. We've stabilized a lot faster than I thought a top 25 that started with a random list would. Still, our top 25 sees a big shakeup each week because teams can drop just for having a close win over an unrated opponent, as there is little other data to go on yet. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:
Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Florida State 3-0 1 Off
#2 Utah 4-0 3 Won 62-20 at previous #34 Oregon
#3 Michigan 3-1 5 Won 31-0 at previous #27 Brigham Young
#4 Baylor 3-0 4 Won 70-17 over unrated Rice
#5 North Carolina State 4-0 2 Won 63-13 over unrated South Alabama
#6 Northwestern 4-0 10 Won 24-19 over unrated Ball State
#7 Duke3-112 Won 34-20 over previous #31 Georgia Tech
#8 California 4-0 6 Won 30-24 at previous #29 Washington
#9 Boston College 3-1 7 Won 17-14 over previous #36 Northern Illinois (now #21)
#10 Notre Dame 4-0 11 Won 62-27 over unrated Massachusetts
#11 Stanford 3-1 14 Won 42-24 at unrated Oregon State
#12 Georgia 4-0 9 Won 48-6 over an FCS team
#13 Mississippi 4-0 15 Won 27-16 over unrated Vanderbilt
#14 Alabama 3-1 16 Won 34-0 over unrated Louisiana-Monroe
#15 UCLA 4-0 24 Won 56-23 at previous #14 Arizona (now unrated)
#16 Texas Christian 4-0 8 Won 55-52 at previously unrated Texas Tech (now #27)
#17 Oklahoma 3-0 17 Off
#18 Southern Cal 3-1 20 Won 42-14 at unrated Arizona State
#19 Clemson 3-0 22 Off
#20 Ohio State 4-0 26 Won 38-12 over unrated Western Michigan
#21 Northern Illinois 2-2 36 Lost 17-14 at previous #7 Boston College (now #9)
#22 Miami (Florida) 3-0 25 Off
#23 Louisiana State 4-0 41 Won 34-24 at previous #19 Syracuse
#24 West Virginia 3-0 32 Won 45-6 over unrated Maryland
#25 Michigan State 4-0 33 Won 30-10 over unrated Central Michigan

Counting Notre Dame, we had 13 major conference teams in our top 25 in the preseason, 20 after week one, 22 after week two, and in week 3 all of the teams in our top 25 came from major conferences (or were Notre Dame). Now Northern Illinois has entered the top 25 and is the lone "Little Big Team." It obviously doesn't take long at all to winnow out the mid-major teams, even when we rate teams "blindly," ignoring their histories.

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

I do not rate teams the way the AP poll does, so a team's movement up or down is not just based on winning or losing their latest game. It's also based on how the teams they've previously played have done this week, and on how they've performed (a close win over an unrated opponent is a poor performance).

Ohio State has finally made its way onto our top 25, boosted upward because Northern Illinois, whom they beat 20-13 last week, lost by just 17-14 to previous #7 Boston College this week. Northern Illinois too rises into the top 25 (they were ranked #33 in the preseason), powered by close road losses to 2 currently-ranked teams.

LSU has also entered our top 25, thanks to their 34-24 win at previous #19 Syracuse. West Virginia and Michigan State have stepped into the bottom of the list as well, but not because of anything special they've done this week. Just holding steady as other teams fall out of their way.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked (in this order): Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Temple, Penn State, Air Force, Navy, Texas A&M, Iowa, Pittsburgh, and Houston.

There were 7 mid-major teams in this list last week, and now there are 4.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This is the biggest week yet for the TipTop 25, with 4 games between rated teams! The main course is #9 Boston College at #7 Duke, but we've also got #10 Notre Dame at #19 Clemson, #14 Alabama at #12 Georgia, and #24 West Virginia at #17 Oklahoma. As side dishes we have #27 Texas Tech at #4 Baylor, #34 Iowa at #28 Wisconsin, and #31 Air Force at #32 Navy. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

Home