Tip Top 25 in helmets, smaller
                                                    Home

2015 TipTop 25 Week Eleven

Picking Duke out of a hat CFB 2015

Welcome back again to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Duke was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot. But this week they have fallen to 6-4, and by now they are nowhere near our top 25.

As the games are played, I am ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, to a lesser degree each week, on where they were randomly ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Clemson Still #1

MS Paint of Clemson football player, 2015

Clemson remains #1 this week, mostly because they defeated #2 Notre Dame early in the season. But Alabama is bearing down on both. They did take an upset loss to 7-3 Mississippi, who is #17, but Bama has also collected wins over 8-2 Wisconsin, 7-3 Georgia, 6-4 Arkansas, 7-3 Texas A&M, 6-4 Tennessee, 7-2 LSU, and 7-3 Mississippi State. That's pretty amazing, and I could certainly understand someone ranking them #1. Clemson doesn't have a collection of wins that is nearly as impressive. Of course, Clemson hasn't taken an upset loss either.

Top 25 After Games of Week Eleven

Last week a big 8 of our top 25 teams were upset by lower-ranked teams, the most this season. This week only 5 of our top 25 teams were upset, but that includes 3 of our top 8, and we've got a pretty big shakeup in our rankings again. Only 5 teams from our randomly selected preseason top 25 remain ranked in this week's TipTop 25:
Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Clemson 10-0 1 Won 37-27 at unrated Syracuse
#2 Notre Dame 9-1 2 Won 28-7 over unrated Wake Forest
#3 Alabama 9-1 6 Won 31-6 at #33 Mississippi State
#4 Iowa 10-0 3 Won 40-35 over unrated Minnesota
#5 Oklahoma State 10-0 5 Won 49-29 over #19 Texas Christian
#6 Ohio State 10-0 9 Won 28-3 at unrated Illinois
#7 Texas Christian 9-1 19 Won 23-17 over unrated Kansas
#8 Oklahoma 9-1 24 Won 44-34 at #9 Baylor
#9 Baylor 8-1 4 Lost 44-34 to #8 Oklahoma
#10 Michigan State 9-1 11 Won 24-7 over unrated Maryland
#11 Michigan 8-2 12 Won 48-41 in overtime at unrated Indiana
#12 Louisiana State 7-2 7 Lost 31-14 to #30 Arkansas
#13 Florida 9-1 10 Won 24-14 at unrated South Carolina
#14 Navy 8-1 17 Won 55-14 over unrated Southern Methodist
#15 Houston 10-0 16 Won 35-34 over #16 Memphis
#16 Memphis 8-2 20 Lost 35-34 at #15 Houston
#17 Mississippi 7-3 21 Off
#18 Northwestern 8-2 13 Won 21-14 over unrated Purdue
#19 Utah 8-2 8 Lost 37-30 in overtime at #39 Arizona
#20 North Carolina 9-1 23 Won 59-21 over unrated Miami-Florida
#21 Florida State 8-2 31 Won 34-17 over unrated North Carolina State
#22 Oregon 7-3 Unrated Won 38-36 at #23 Stanford
#23 Stanford 8-2 14 Lost 38-36 to #22 Oregon
#24 Southern Cal 7-3 18 Won 27-24 at unrated Colorado
#25 Pittsburgh 7-3 30 Won 31-13 at previously-#33 Duke

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

I do not rate teams the way the AP poll does, so a team's movement up or down is not just based on winning or losing their latest game. It's also based on how they've performed (a close win over an unrated opponent is a poor performance), and on how the teams they've previously played have done this week.

Although they are not ranked in the top 25, 6-4 Arkansas had a big impact on this top 25. This week they won their 2nd straight game against a top 25 opponent, smashing previously-#7 LSU 31-14. And early in the season, 6-5 Texas Tech won 35-24 at Arkansas, better than any team has performed against Arkansas this season (Alabama beat them by 13, but at home). And 5-4 West Virginia beat Texas Tech 38-20 this week. So the result of all this is that the Big 12 gets a big boost in the top 25. West Virginia and Texas Tech are just outside the top 25 now, and TCU and Oklahoma move into the top 10 because I now view wins over WV and TT to be quality wins.

Northwestern posted their 5th straight weak result this week, 21-14 over Purdue, and it was their 6th weak performance in their last 7 games. They continue to find ways to win, and their only losses have come to the #4 and #11 teams, but they finally fall this week because Stanford, the only good team they've beaten, was upset and falls to #23.

8-2 Wisconsin had been ranked #22 last week, and they were off this week, but they fall out of the top 25 because they've been passed up by teams that have accomplished something. Wisconsin has not beaten a good team yet. But they'll get their chance to storm back into the top 25 next week, because they're hosting #18 Northwestern.

7-3 Texas A&M had been ranked #25 last week because of their win over Mississippi State, who had been #26, but MSU was routed 31-6 by Alabama this week, and they fall in the rankings, and Texas A&M falls with them.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, and Mississippi State.

7-3 Mississippi State plays at 6-4 Arkansas this week.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

We've got a big 5 games between ranked teams this week: #9 Baylor at #5 Oklahoma State, #10 Michigan State at #6 Ohio State, #7 Texas Christian at #8 Oklahoma, #12 Louisiana State at #17 Mississippi, and #24 Southern Cal at #22 Oregon. But we've also got a lot of ranked teams playing good unranked opponents this week: #11 Michigan at 7-3 Penn State, #16 Memphis at 8-2 Temple, #18 Northwestern at 8-2 Wisconsin, #19 Utah vs. 7-3 UCLA, #23 Stanford vs. 6-4 Cal, and #25 Pittsburgh vs. 6-4 Louisville. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

Home