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2015 TipTop 25 Week Ten

Picking Duke out of a hat CFB 2015

Welcome back again to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Duke was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot. But they've lost their 3rd game this week, dropping to 6-3 and out of the top 25 entirely.

As the games are played, I am ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, to a lesser degree each week, on where they were randomly ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Our New #1

MS Paint of Clemson football player, 2015

Here's a little MS Paint I did to commemorate our new #1 Clemson. Last week's #1 team, Baylor, still hasn't beaten a good team, and this week they had their first close win, 31-24 at 3-5 Kansas State, so I'm no longer giving them the benefit of the doubt. Now this top 25 has come to the same conclusion as the College Football Playoff Committee. Well, as far as #1 goes, anyway. Not about much else. Yet.

Top 25 After Games of Week Ten

Last week only 2 of our top 25 teams took a loss to a lower-ranked team, our lowest number of upsets yet, and that followed a week when only 3 teams were upset. This week, however, was not so pleasant for rated teams, and in fact 8 of our top 25 teams were upset by lower-ranked teams, the most this season. Only 5 teams from our randomly selected preseason top 25 remain ranked in this week's TipTop 25:
Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Clemson 9-0 2 Won 23-13 over #31 Florida State (7-2)
#2 Notre Dame 8-1 3 Won 42-30 at #30 Pittsburgh
#3 Iowa 9-0 4 Won 35-27 at unrated Indiana
#4 Baylor 8-0 1 Won 31-24 at unrated Kansas State
#5 Oklahoma State 9-0 21 Won 49-29 over #19 Texas Christian
#6 Alabama 8-1 17 Won 30-16 over #7 Louisiana State
#7 Louisiana State 7-1 5 Lost 30-16 at #6 Alabama
#8 Utah 8-1 9 Won 34-23 at unrated Washington
#9 Ohio State 9-0 14 Won 28-14 over unrated Minnesota
#10 Florida 8-1 7 Won 9-7 over unrated Vanderbilt
#11 Michigan State 8-1 8 Lost 39-38 at unrated Nebraska
#12 Michigan 7-2 10 Won 49-16 over unrated Rutgers
#13 Northwestern 7-2 11 Won 23-21 over #28 Penn State
#14 Stanford 8-1 12 Won 42-10 at unrated Colorado
#15 Temple 8-1 18 Won 60-40 at unrated Southern Methodist
#16 Houston 9-0 19 Won 33-30 over unrated Cincinnati
#17 Navy 7-1 29 Won 45-20 at #20 Memphis
#18 Southern Cal 6-3 13 Won 38-30 over unrated Arizona
#19 Texas Christian 8-1 6 Lost 49-29 at #5 Oklahoma State
#20 Memphis 8-1 15 Lost 45-20 to #17 Navy
#21 Mississippi 7-3 16 Lost 53-52 in overtime to unrated Arkansas
#22 Wisconsin 8-2 24 Won 31-24 at unrated Maryland
#23 North Carolina 8-1 32 Won 66-31 over #33 Duke
#24 Oklahoma 8-1 34 Won 52-16 over unrated Iowa State
#25 Texas A&M 6-3 22 Lost 26-10 to unrated Auburn

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

I do not rate teams the way the AP poll does, so a team's movement up or down is not just based on winning or losing their latest game. It's also based on how they've performed (a close win over an unrated opponent is a poor performance), and on how the teams they've previously played have done this week.

As I said the previous 2 weeks, Baylor had been #1 primarily because they were the highest rated team in the preseason top 25 that was still unbeaten, and though they had played no good teams, no one had come close to them. Well, that changed this week as 3-5 KSU came within a touchdown of them, so I'm no longer giving Baylor the benefit of the doubt. Clemson, who was #2 last week, takes over #1. But they are #1 not because of what they have done overall, but because they defeated Notre Dame, who is now #2. Notre Dame has beaten 4 straight rated or near-rated opponents (7-1 Navy, 6-3 Southern Cal, 8-1 Temple, 6-3 Pittsburgh), very impressive.

Iowa, like Baylor, had a close win over an unrated opponent this week, but I am moving them past Baylor because they have beaten 2 rated teams (7-2 Northwestern, 8-2 Wisconsin) and another who is close (6-3 Pitt), while Baylor, again, has beaten no one that holds much value.

Southern Cal drops this week not just because they had a close win over unrated Arizona, but also because Cal lost their 4th straight game this week, dropping to 5-4, so Southern Cal's win over them no longer holds much value. Moreover, the fact that their win over Cal had been close makes that result more of a negative for USC than a positive.

Texas Christian dropped a whole lot more, from #6 to #19. Their high rating had been based on being unbeaten and rated fairly highly in the preseason (#23). But they hadn't beaten anyone, and their performances were poor, so when Oklahoma State trounced them this week, I finally stopped giving them the benefit of the doubt. TCU has not beaten a team that is even close to rated, and 3 of their wins have come by a touchdown or less.

#25 Texas A&M got drubbed at home this week by an unrated team, but they hold on in the top 25 for now because of their win over 7-2 Mississippi State, who is #26.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked: Mississippi State, UCLA, Penn State, Brigham Young, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Toledo, and Duke.

7-2 Florida State is unranked because they haven't beaten a rated or near-rated team, they've lost to an unrated team (3-6 Georgia Tech), and they've had 2 close wins over unrated teams (3-6 Wake Forest and 6-3 Miami-Florida). They just haven't done anything to merit being ranked.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

There are 2 games between top 25 teams this week, and another that is very close: #24 Oklahoma at #4 Baylor, #20 Memphis at #16 Houston, and #6 Alabama at #26 Mississippi State. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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