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Fixing the Final 2021 AP College Football Poll

1) Georgia 14-1
2) Alabama 13-2
3) Michigan 12-2
4) Cincinnati 13-1
5) Baylor 12-2
6) Ohio State 11-2
7) Oklahoma State 12-2
8) Notre Dame 11-2
9) Michigan State 11-2
10) Oklahoma 11-2
11) Mississippi 10-3
12) Utah 10-4
13) Pittsburgh 11-3
14) Clemson 10-3
15) Wake Forest 11-3
16) Louisiana 13-1
17) Houston 12-2
18) Kentucky 10-3
19) Brigham Young 10-3
20) North Carolina State 9-3
21) Arkansas 9-4
22) Oregon 10-4
23) Iowa 10-4
24) Utah State 11-3
25) San Diego State 12-2

Here is the final AP poll college football top 25 for the 2021 season. The fixed final AP poll top 25 follows the article below.

But before I get to correcting the AP poll's errors, let me make one thing clear. This is not about what I would personally prefer to see in the rankings. I myself would be inclined to rank 13-1 Cincinnati ahead of 12-2 Michigan (details on this below), and I would put 10-4 Oregon ahead of 9-4 Arkansas, just as a couple of examples. But in these cases, the choices the AP poll made are logically viable. This is about fixing only those AP poll choices that are not logically valid or fair.

As is often the case, most of the changes I made to this year's AP poll simply boiled down to heeding head-to-head results. AP poll voters tend to unfairly ignore head-to-head results when the loser has a better straight record than the winner, even if that straight record is completely the product of playing a far easier schedule.

On a positive note, there is only one slight change to be made in the top 11, so the voters did a great job on the top half of the rankings this year.

Georgia defender bearing down on Alabama quarterback Bryce Young in the national championship game to cap the 2021 season

Here is my ms paint tribute to the terrific Georgia defense, which contained Alabama and their Heisman-winning quarterback Bryce Young well enough to enable a 33-18 victory in the national championship game. This is Georgia's first national championship in 41 years.

Michigan and Cincinnati

As the AP poll stands now, 13-1 Cincinnati (#4) ought to be moved ahead of 12-2 Michigan (#3) because Michigan took an upset loss (at #9 Michigan State) and Cincinnati did not. Both teams performed about the same, both posting 2 close wins over unranked opponents, and their schedules weren't different enough to merit ignoring Michigan's upset loss, as both defeated 2 ranked teams, Cinci over #8 Notre Dame and #17 Houston, Michigan over #6 Ohio State and #23 Iowa. The Big 10 may have been tougher than the AAC, but for teams ranked in the top 5, the relative difference in power level of unranked opponents just doesn't mean very much.

However, the picture will change dramatically once I have finished fixing the AP poll. Cinci opponent Houston will drop out of the top 25, and Michigan will gain a 3rd top 25 opponent (9-4 Wisconsin), both issues covered in detail below. Furthermore, 7-6 Penn State would be #26, and so outside of their playoff games, in reality Michigan went 4-1 against top 26 teams, Cinci just 1-0, and that is easily a big enough difference in schedule strength for Michigan to be viably ranked higher than Cincinnati. AP poll voters can therefore keep Michigan a slot above Cincinnati, but only due to how they should have rated the rest of the top 25.

I would still rate Cincinnati higher than Michigan myself, but again, Michigan is a logically viable choice, so no adjustment is needed here.

Ohio State and Baylor

This is an issue I addressed in an article I published the day after the New Year's Day bowl games. 11-2 Ohio State (#6) should be ranked ahead of 12-2 Baylor (#5) because Ohio State took just one upset loss (to 10-4 Oregon), while Baylor suffered 2 upset losses, one of them to unrated 5-7 TCU, a far worse upset than OSU's. Ohio State also clearly performed better than Baylor did, as OSU posted no close wins (touchdown or less) over unranked opponents, while Baylor turned in 3 such poor performances. Baylor did defeat more AP-ranked teams, 4 to Ohio State's 2, but OSU's number will become 3 after I finish fixing the AP poll (9-4 Purdue, as covered below), and as indicated above, a 4th opponent would be ranked #26 (7-6 Penn State), and a 5th opponent would be ranked #27 (9-4 Minnesota), so the schedule difference here is just not enough to ignore the facts that point to Ohio State.

Switch 'em. Ohio State #5, Baylor #6.

Brigham Young > Utah

Here is another issue I addressed in my previous article. I'll just repeat the points I made there: Ranked at #12, 10-4 Utah has taken a ridiculous 3 "upset" losses to lower-ranked teams, more than any other ranked team has taken, and more than any ranked team should ever have with no upset wins to balance them out. Obviously Utah has been a far better team the second half of the season than they were the first, and right now they are probably a #6-10 team power-wise, but I think the top 25 should reflect the season as a whole, and that late-season performance and improvement should be looked at as little more than a tie-breaker when rating teams.

10-3 Brigham Young (#19) and 12-2 San Diego State (#25) both defeated 10-4 Utah this season, and both teams could viably be ranked ahead of Utah. However, I think the Utah problem would be solved well enough by just moving BYU ahead of them. BYU beat Utah by more than a touchdown, 26-17, and though they took 2 upset losses this season, if you place BYU ahead of Utah, where they belong, then Utah also has 2 upset losses, so the teams are equal there. Also bear this in mind: BYU went 5-0 against the PAC 12 this year, better than Utah did.

San Diego State's head-to-head win over Utah came by 2 points in overtime, at home, so it was not as decisive as BYU's win over Utah, and with BYU ranked ahead of Utah, the Utes have 2 upset losses instead of 3, so I think it's fine for Utah, considering their tremendous performance over their last 7 games, to remain ranked higher than the Aztecs.

OK, we're moving BYU ahead of Utah. Where do we place the 2 teams? Well, the average rating of #12 Utah and #19 Brigham Young is 15.5, so we'll place both teams behind #15 Wake Forest and ahead of #16 Louisiana. This works well enough, as Wake Forest took just 1 upset loss, BYU 2, so Wake had a better relevant record. As for Louisiana, they'll be dropping out of the top 25 anyway, as covered below.

We have the following ratings shift: Pittsburgh #12, Clemson #13, Wake Forest #14, Brigham Young #15, Utah #16, Louisiana #17, Houston #18, and Kentucky #19.

Purdue > Tennessee > Kentucky > Iowa

Yet another issue I addressed in my previous article. Since 9-4 Purdue (#29 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll) defeated 7-6 Tennessee (unrated) in their bowl game, and 10-3 Kentucky (now #19) defeated 10-4 Iowa (#23) in theirs, those parts of the above victory chain are obvious, so let's start with why 7-6 Tennessee > 10-3 Kentucky. This comes down to the simple fact that Tennessee defeated Kentucky on the road 45-42. Yes, Tennessee went 7-6 and Kentucky 10-3, but those records are entirely the result of Tennessee playing a far, far tougher schedule than Kentucky did. 3 of Tennessee's losses came to 11-3 Pittsburgh (now #12), 10-3 Mississippi (#11), and 13-1 Alabama (#2). Since all of those teams are ranked well higher than Kentucky, and since Kentucky did not themselves defeat an opponent close to that good, those losses should be disregarded when comparing Tennessee to Kentucky, and when you do that, Tennessee has 3 relevant losses, same as Kentucky. And Tennessee has the head-to-head tie-breaker.

But it isn't even really a tie, because even the bowl results point to Tennessee being better than Kentucky, despite the fact that Tennessee lost their bowl game and Kentucky won theirs. During the regular season, 9-4 Purdue crushed 10-4 Iowa 24-7 on the road (which is why Purdue should be ranked ahead of Iowa). In their bowl games, Tennessee lost in overtime to Purdue, indicating that they are practically equal to Purdue, while Kentucky edged Iowa 21-17, indicating that they are barely better than Iowa, so when we combine those results with Purdue's rout of Iowa, we can see that those bowl results actually corroborate the notion that Tennessee > Kentucky.

Finally, on top of all that, Tennessee performed far better than Kentucky did this season as well. Tennessee's wins all came by more than a touchdown except their 45-42 win at Kentucky. Kentucky, on the other hand, posted 5 close wins, 4 of them over unrated teams, and 1 of them against an FCS team! When you look deeper beneath those 7-6 and 10-3 straight records, this is not actually even close: Tennessee > Kentucky.

Where to Rank These Teams?

So where do we rank these teams? Averaging the ratings of the 4 teams is difficult because 7-6 Tennessee collected no poll points at all. Counting all the teams in the Others Receiving Votes section, the AP poll ranked 35 teams this year. If we consider Tennessee to be #36, then the average rating of the 4 teams would be 26.5 (based on the original AP poll ratings), which would place them all behind #26 Texas A&M and ahead of #27 Wisconsin. If we consider Tennessee to be #50, then the average rating of the 4 teams would be 30, where Texas-San Antonio is ranked. However, Minnesota is #28, and Iowa defeated them and should be ranked ahead of them, so for now let's place all of these teams ahead of Minnesota. Wisconsin, #27, still needs to be figured out, which we'll handle next.

Purdue > Wisconsin > Iowa

Also discussed previously, like Purdue, 9-4 Wisconsin should be rated ahead of 10-4 Iowa due to decisively defeating Iowa 27-7. Wisconsin beat Purdue 30-13, but Purdue should nevertheless be rated higher than Wisconsin because they had a better relevant record than Wisconsin did. Wisconsin took 2 upset losses (Minnesota and Penn State), while Purdue took 1 (Minnesota). Wisconsin's head-to-head win would make them even, but Purdue balanced out their upset loss with a big upset win over #9 Michigan State, while Wisconsin did not beat a higher-ranked team (other than Purdue), so Purdue had a relevant record that was effectively 1 game better than that of Wisconsin for the season as a whole.

Obviously Wisconsin should be rated behind Purdue and ahead of Iowa. But where should Wisconsin be ranked relative to Tennessee and Kentucky, who also belong behind Purdue and ahead of Iowa? Well, Wisconsin was originally ranked 9 places behind Kentucky, and the highest Tennessee could possibly be considered to be ranked, given that they were not in the AP poll's top 35, is #36, which would be 9 places behind Wisconsin. Because Tennessee is likely to have been ranked lower than #36, and because currently, after our previous fix, Kentucky is only 8 places ahead of Wisconsin, we'll rank Wisconsin ahead of Tennessee and Kentucky.

All of that gives us the following big ratings shift: North Carolina State #19, Arkansas #20, Oregon #21, Utah State #22, San Diego State #23, Texas A&M #24, Purdue #25, Wisconsin #26, Tennessee #27, Kentucky #28, and Iowa #29. And yes, who is ranked #26 through #29 matters, because we're about to toss a bunch of unworthy teams out of the rankings...

Louisiana

Also addressed in my previous article. 13-1 Louisiana (now #17) has not played a team that is anywhere near ranked. Their best opponent was 5-7 Texas, a game they lost 38-18, and I see no reason for them to be ranked higher than the Longhorns, which is to say, well outside of the top 25. Louisiana's schedule was ultra-lousy, offering them no chance to prove much of anything, and their performance was consistently putrid. In addition to getting rocked by 5-7 Texas, 7 of their wins came by a touchdown or less, mostly against terrible Sun Belt teams (as well as one FCS opponent).

Toss 'em out. All the teams that had been ranked behind Louisiana move up 1 spot, bringing 9-4 Wisconsin into the top 25.

Houston

Finally we have an issue that I did not discuss last week. However, I did discuss it in my comments on the final regular season AP poll.

Like Louisiana, 12-2 Houston (now #17) played a worthless schedule, and like Louisiana, they lost to an unranked Big 12 team that they should therefore be ranked behind. Houston was beaten 38-21 at home by 7-6 Texas Tech, and I see no reason for that very decisive head-to-head result to be ignored. Houston did not beat a team that is even close to being ranked. Their best win came 17-13 over 6-7 Auburn in their bowl game, which doesn't help their cause because Texas Tech destroyed 7-6 Mississippi State 34-7 in their bowl game, and MSU won 43-34 at Auburn this season. Obviously those bowl results just resoundingly reinforce the notion that Texas Tech should be ranked ahead of Houston.

Also, note this: Texas Tech may be 7-6, but the Big 12 had the best record of any conference against nonconference opponents this year, 29-8 (.784).

Toss Houston out. All the teams that had been ranked behind them move up 1 spot, bringing 7-6 Tennessee into the top 25.

North Carolina State

Also discussed previously, here is a third team that should be tossed out of the top 25, back behind an unrated team that beat them. 9-3 North Carolina State (now #17) did something Louisiana and Houston did not, namely beat a ranked team (27-21 in overtime at home over now-#13 Clemson), but while Louisiana and Houston each took 1 "upset" loss to an unranked team, NC State took 2 such losses. One of those losses came 24-10 at 7-6 Mississippi State, and I can see no good reason for NC State to be ranked higher than Mississippi State. NC State performed pretty well, but no better against like teams than MSU did, and while Clemson is the only good team NC State beat, MSU nabbed an upset win over 10-3 Kentucky in addition to beating 8-4 Texas A&M, 6-7 Auburn, and of course, North Carolina State.

Also, it need hardly be said that the SEC (53-15 against nonconference teams this season) was vastly better than the ACC (36-24).

Toss North Carolina State out. All the teams that had been ranked behind them move up 1 spot, bringing 10-3 Kentucky into the top 25.

Texas A&M

Here we actually have an issue that I have not discussed at all, neither last week nor at the end of last year. 8-4 Texas A&M (now #21) lost 26-22 at home to Mississippi State, so like NC State, they ought to be ranked behind MSU. The Aggies did manage one of the best wins by any team this year, 41-38 over #2 Alabama, but that win was balanced out by an ugly loss at 6-7 Louisiana State in their final game.

Toss 'em out. Texas A&M was not ranked in the original AP poll anyway, and Iowa, who now replaces them at #25, was ranked in the original poll, so this isn't as big a deal as the previous 3 cases. All the teams that had been ranked behind Texas A&M move up 1 spot, and again, that brings 10-4 Iowa into the top 25.

San Diego State and Utah State

Also discussed previously, 12-2 San Diego State (now #20) should be rated higher than 11-3 Utah State (now #19). Utah State did romp San Diego State 46-13 in the MWC title game, but San Diego State should nevertheless be ranked higher because they had a better relevant record (as well as straight record), rendering them 1 game better than Utah State for the season as a whole. The CFP committee got this one right in their last top 25.

The real difference maker here is that San Diego State owns an upset win over PAC 12 champion Utah (now #16), while Utah State has not beaten a ranked team aside from San Diego State. In fact, San Diego State could viably be ranked ahead of Utah.

So we'll switch them, SD State to #19 and Utah State to #20, but that's not all. Neither team compares well to 9-4 Purdue, who currently sits right behind them at #21, and I can't find a good reason for either to be ranked ahead of Purdue. Let's cut to the chase and compare San Diego State to Purdue. Both teams suffered 2 upset losses and each got an upset win, but SD State's big win came over #16 Utah in overtime, while Purdue's big win came over #9 Michigan State by 11 points. SD State's next best wins came over 2 nearly-rated teams, Air Force and Texas-San Antonio, but Purdue's next best wins came over currently rated teams Iowa and Tennessee. And as far as performance goes, SD State posted 5 close wins (touchdown or less) over unrated teams, Purdue 2, and SD State's upset losses came by 33 and 10 points, Purdue's by 17 and 7. Everything points to Purdue, and Utah State compares even less well to Purdue than San Diego State does.

9-4 Wisconsin, who currently sits right behind Purdue, could also be viably ranked ahead of San Diego State and Utah State, but this one I can give to the AP poll voters. I think keeping Utah State ranked ahead of Wisconsin will work because the two teams have the same relevant record, and Utah State finished stronger than Wisconsin did, as the Badgers barely beat 3-9 Nebraska, then took an upset loss to unranked Minnesota in their last 2 games. In their bowl games, Wisconsin beat Arizona State 20-13 and Utah State beat Oregon State 24-13, and during the season, Oregon State beat Arizona State 24-10.

Move 12-2 San Diego State ahead of 11-3 Utah State, and move 9-4 Purdue ahead of both teams. That puts Purdue at #19, San Diego State #20, and Utah State #21.

A Word on Utah, Arkansas, and Oregon

At this point, 10-4 Utah is ranked #16, 9-4 Arkansas #17, and 10-4 Oregon #18, which is a bit awkward because in those positions, Oregon has a better relevant record than Arkansas does, and Arkansas has a better relevant record than Utah does. I would rate Oregon ahead of Arkansas myself, and that would solve the problem, but I think the current setup will just work, so I'll let the AP poll keep these 3 teams in this order.

Utah has 2 upset losses and Arkansas only 1, but Utah's last 7 games were, of course, spectacular, and at this point Arkansas has no wins over a rated team, while Utah smacked Oregon around twice down the stretch.

Like Arkansas, Oregon has 1 upset loss, but unlike Arkansas, Oregon balanced out their upset loss with a huge upset win over now-#5 Ohio State. However, Arkansas performed better than Oregon did, particularly down the stretch, as Oregon lost games by 31, 28, and 15 points in 4 tries since November 20th, while in that same time Arkansas lost by only 7 points at #2 Alabama, then won the rest handily. Oregon's upset loss was also much worse, coming to 3-9 Stanford, while Arkansas took theirs to 6-7 Auburn. Finally, the SEC was 53-15 against nonconference teams this year, the PAC 12 a dreadful 16-25. Note that while this fact would also apply when comparing Utah to Arkansas, Utah showed a lot of separation from Oregon power-wise with their 2 trouncings of the Ducks, so I think it would be fair to weigh the fact more heavily in one case than in the other.

No adjustment needed here.

A Final Word on Louisiana, Houston, and North Carolina State

We are now done with the top 25, so let's revisit 3 of the teams we tossed out of the rankings and compare them to 10-4 Iowa, who now sits at #25. First of all, since all 4 of Iowa's losses came to teams now ranked in the top 25, they suffered no upset losses this year, and that renders them effectively a game better than 13-1 Louisiana, 12-2 Houston, and 9-3 North Carolina State for the season. Louisiana and Houston each took an upset loss to an unranked team, and while North Carolina State did win against now-#13 Clemson, they took 2 upset losses to unranked teams.

Furthermore, Iowa notched wins against 7-6 Penn State, who would be ranked #26 if I were to continue fixing these rankings beyond 25 teams, 9-4 Minnesota, who would be #27, and 7-6 Iowa State. That last one matters because ISU finished 4th in the Big 12, which had the best record of any conference against nonconference teams this year, and ISU beat Kansas State, who beat Texas Tech, who beat Houston. Tech also defeated Mississippi State (34-7), who beat NC State. And Iowa State also defeated Texas (30-7), who beat Louisiana. Meanwhile, neither Louisiana nor Houston defeated any team that was close to ranked, and neither did NC State aside from their win over Clemson, which, again, was more than balanced out by 2 upset losses.

So you see, none of these teams comes close to deserving to be ranked ahead of Iowa.

Louisiana 2020 vs. Louisiana 2021

Comparing the AP poll rankings of Louisiana in 2020 and in 2021 provides a great illustration of what is wrong with AP poll voters. In 2020, Louisiana finished 10-1 and they were ranked #15 in the final AP poll, and this year they went 13-1 and were ranked practically the same, #16. But although these were both 1-loss teams, they were actually very different. In 2020, Louisiana's 1 loss came to #14 Coastal Carolina, while this year, their loss came to unranked 5-7 Texas in a rout. Last year, Louisiana defeated #9 Iowa State, 9-3 Appalachian State (#26 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the poll), and 6-3 UAB (#32). This year, they did not beat a ranked or even nearly-ranked team. And last year they posted 4 poor performances over unranked teams, this year 7.

These 2 Louisiana teams are not in the same ballpark, and yet AP poll voters ranked them practically the same. Why? Well, clearly it is because AP poll voters can't be bothered to look much deeper than a team's straight record. They voted these 2 Louisiana teams the same because all they saw each season was a 1-loss team, and they didn't much care who they played. And that is a very lame way to rate teams.

Fixed AP Poll Top 25

Three teams fall out of this fixed AP poll top 25, 13-1 Louisiana (#16), 12-2 Houston (#17), and 9-3 North Carolina State (#20). They are replaced by 9-4 Purdue (now #19), 9-4 Wisconsin (#22), and 7-6 Tennessee (#23). The 3 teams that fall out totaled 4 losses to unranked teams, and as a group they managed just 1 win over a team the AP poll had rated. Discounting games against each other, the 3 teams that replace them also totaled 4 losses to unranked teams, but they collected a far superior 4 wins against AP-rated teams. That's a big win for the replacements, and thus for the fixed AP poll over the original.

And here it is, your fixed final AP poll for the 2021 season, now logically coherent.

1) Georgia 14-1	--
2) Alabama 13-2	--
3) Michigan 12-2	--
4) Cincinnati 13-1	--
5) Ohio State 11-2	+1
6) Baylor 12-2	-1
7) Oklahoma State 12-2	--
8) Notre Dame 11-2	--
9) Michigan State 11-2	--
10) Oklahoma 11-2	--
11) Mississippi 10-3	--
12) Pittsburgh 11-3	+1
13) Clemson 10-3	+1
14) Wake Forest 11-3	+1
15) Brigham Young 10-3	+4
16) Utah 10-4	-4
17) Arkansas 9-4	+4
18) Oregon 10-4	+4
19) Purdue 9-4	IN
20) San Diego State 12-2	+5
21) Utah State 11-3	+3
22) Wisconsin 9-4	IN
23) Tennessee 7-6	IN
24) Kentucky 10-3	-6
25) Iowa 10-4	-2

OUT: #16 Louisiana 13-1
#17 Houston 12-2
#20 North Carolina State 9-3

Fixed AP Polls
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