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Ranking the Top 25 Teams for the 2021 Season

January 2, 2022

AP poll voters' top 25 ballots will be due right after the National Championship game between #1 Alabama and #3 Georgia, but hopefully they have already started working on their final rankings. With more than a week to go before the final game, AP voters have plenty of time to look carefully at all the relevant teams and to put together a solid final top 25. To help in that regard, I offer some advice on how certain teams should be ranked (below), but first let's look at the final regular-season AP poll, along with the teams' subsequent bowl results thus far:

1) Alabama 13-1	Defeated #4 Cincinnati 27-6
2) Michigan 12-2	Lost to #3 Georgia 34-11
3) Georgia 13-1	Defeated #2 Michigan 34-11
4) Cincinnati 13-1	Lost to #1 Alabama 27-6
5) Notre Dame 11-2	Lost to #9 Oklahoma State 37-35
6) Baylor 12-2	Defeated #8 Mississippi 21-7
7) Ohio State 11-2	Defeated #10 Utah 48-45
8) Mississippi 10-3	Lost to #6 Baylor 21-7
9) Oklahoma State 11-2	Defeated #5 Notre Dame 37-35
10) Utah 10-4	Lost to #7 Ohio State 48-45
11) Michigan State 10-2	Defeated #13 Pittsburgh 31-21
12) Brigham Young 10-3	Lost to 9-4 UAB 31-28
13) Pittsburgh 11-3	Lost to #11 Michigan State 31-21
14) Oklahoma 11-2	Defeated #15 Oregon 47-32
15) Oregon 10-4	Lost to #14 Oklahoma 47-32
16) Louisiana 13-1	Defeated 7-6 Marshall 36-21
17) Iowa 10-3	Lost to #25 Kentucky 20-17
18) North Carolina State 9-3	Did not play
19) Clemson 10-3	Defeated 7-6 Iowa State 20-13
20) Wake Forest 11-3	Defeated 5-7 Rutgers 38-10
21) Houston 12-2	Defeated 6-7 Auburn 17-13
22) Arkansas 8-4	Lost to 4-7 Mississippi State 28-26
23) Texas A&M 8-4	Did not play
24) Texas-San Antonio 12-2	Lost to 12-2 San Diego State 38-24
25) Kentucky 10-3	Defeated #17 Iowa 20-17

Others Receiving Votes (in order from most poll points to least)

Utah State 11-3	Defeated 7-6 Oregon State 24-13
Wisconsin 9-4	Defeated 8-5 Arizona State 20-13
San Diego State 12-2	Defeated #23 UTSA 38-24
Minnesota 9-4	Defeated 6-7 West Virginia 18-6
Purdue 8-4	Defeated 7-6 Tennessee 48-45 in OT
Louisiana Tech 3-9	Did not play
Appalachian State 10-4	Lost to 9-5 Western Kentucky 59-38
Army 9-4	Lost to 4-8 Navy at home 17-13 Defeated 6-7 Missouri 24-22
Mississippi State 7-6	Lost to 7-6 Texas Tech 34-7
Penn State 7-5	Did not play
Northern Illinois 9-5	Lost to 11-2 Coastal Carolina 47-41

Ohio State > Baylor

I touched on this issue in my comments on the last December AP poll. I think that 11-2 Ohio State should be ranked ahead of 12-2 Baylor because Ohio State has taken one upset loss (to 10-4 Oregon), while Baylor has taken 2 upset losses, one of them to unrated 5-7 TCU! Ohio State has also clearly performed better than Baylor has, as OSU has posted no close wins (touchdown or less) over unranked opponents, while Baylor has turned in 3 such poor performances.

In the past, AP voters have had an unfortunate habit of dropping playoff losers behind teams that did not make the playoffs. It is possible that voters will drop Cincinnati behind Baylor this year, but Cincinnati has NO upset losses, so it need hardly be said that they should not be rated behind Baylor.

Oklahoma > Mississippi

I think that 11-2 Oklahoma will be rated just ahead of 10-3 Mississippi in the final AP poll, but if not, they should be. They not only have the better straight record, but they have the better relevant record as well, as OU has taken no upset losses, while Ole Miss has taken one (to 6-7 Auburn).

Brigham Young > Utah

This is another issue I have addressed before. 10-4 Utah will have a ridiculous 3 "upset" losses to lower-ranked teams when the final AP poll is released. Obviously Utah has been a far better team the second half of the season than they were the first, and right now they are probably a #6-10 team power-wise, but I think the top 25 should reflect the season as a whole, and that late-season performance and improvement should be looked at as little more than a tie-breaker when rating teams.

10-3 Brigham Young and 12-2 San Diego State both defeated 10-4 Utah this season, and I would probably rank both teams ahead of Utah myself. However, I think the Utah problem would be solved well enough by just moving BYU ahead of them, and that is no doubt what I will have to do when I fix the final AP poll. BYU beat Utah by more than a touchdown, 26-17, and though they took 2 upset losses this season, if you place BYU ahead of Utah, where they belong, then Utah also has 2 upset losses, so they are equal there. Also bear this in mind: BYU went 5-0 against the PAC 12 this year, better than Utah did.

Louisiana

I've been complaining about this issue for weeks. 13-1 Louisiana has not played a team that will be close to ranked. In fact, they have not played a team that will even be close to close to ranked. Reiterating what I've written the last 2 times: Louisiana's loss came by 20 points to 5-7 Texas, and I'm not sure that they should even be rated ahead of the Longhorns. Their schedule has been ultra-lousy, offering them no chance to prove much of anything, and their performance has been consistently putrid. They've won 7 games by a touchdown or less, mostly against terrible Sun Belt teams (as well as one FCS opponent).

Pittsburgh > Clemson > Wake Forest > North Carolina State

I think that these 4 ACC teams will be ranked in the above order in the final AP poll, but if not, they should be, as this is the logical order based on their victories against each other. North Carolina State did beat Clemson this year, but here is what I wrote about this issue previously:

10-3 Clemson > 11-3 Wake Forest > 9-3 North Carolina State. They defeated each other in a circle, Clemson stomping Wake Forest 48-27, Wake beating NC State 45-42, and NC State beating Clemson 27-21 in overtime. Notice that of those wins, Clemson's is the strongest, and NC State's is the weakest. Most importantly, outside of this circle of wins, Clemson took no upset losses (their other 2 losses came to Georgia and ACC champion Pittsburgh), Wake Forest took 1 upset loss (to UNC), and NC State took 2 "upset" losses (to Mississippi State and Miami-Florida). So Clemson had the best relevant record of the 3, followed by Wake Forest, and NC State had the worst relevant record.

North Carolina State Not Worthy of a Top 25 Slot at All

As I also wrote last time I commented on the AP poll, North Carolina State's issue goes deeper than the fact that they ought to be ranked behind Wake Forest: NC State should not be ranked in the top 25 at all. That win over Clemson was great, the highlight of their season, but it is more than canceled out by their pair of "upset" losses to unranked teams. They lost 24-10 at 7-6 Mississippi State, and in fact, I think they should be ranked behind MSU, out of the top 25.

Oregon

I suspect that 10-4 Oregon will be underrated in the final AP poll. They only took one upset loss (to Stanford), and they balanced that out with an upset win over 11-2 Ohio State on the road. That gives Oregon a better relevant record than that of most teams that will end up in the bottom half of the final AP poll. I'd say that they ought to be rated right behind Utah.

Purdue > Tennessee > Kentucky > Iowa (And Wisconsin > Iowa Too!)

Here we have a couple of issues that I have been complaining about for weeks now. Let's start with the important one...

Tennessee > Kentucky

Since Purdue defeated Tennessee in their bowl game, and Kentucky defeated Iowa in theirs, those parts of the above victory chain are obvious, so let's just talk about why Tennessee > Kentucky. This comes down to the simple fact that Tennessee defeated Kentucky on the road 45-42. Yes, Tennessee is 7-6 and Kentucky is 10-3, but those records are entirely the result of Tennessee playing a far, far tougher schedule than Kentucky did. 3 of Tennessee's losses came to 11-3 Pittsburgh, 10-3 Mississippi, and 13-1 Alabama. Since all of those teams are (and will be) ranked higher than Kentucky, and since Kentucky did not themselves defeat an opponent of their ilk, those losses should be disregarded when comparing Tennessee to Kentucky, and when you do that, Tennessee has 3 relevant losses, same as Kentucky. And Tennessee has the head-to-head tie-breaker.

But it isn't even really a tie, because even the bowl results point to Tennessee being better than Kentucky, despite the fact that Tennessee lost their bowl game and Kentucky won theirs. During the regular season, 9-4 Purdue crushed 10-4 Iowa 24-7 on the road (which is why Purdue should be ranked ahead of Iowa). In their bowl games, Tennessee lost in overtime to Purdue, indicating that they are practically equal to Purdue, while Kentucky edged Iowa 21-17, indicating that they are barely better than Iowa, so when we combine those results with Purdue's rout of Iowa, we can see that those bowl results corroborate the notion that Tennessee > Kentucky.

Finally, on top of all that, Tennessee performed far better than Kentucky did this season as well. Tennessee's wins all came by more than a touchdown except their 45-42 win at Kentucky. Kentucky, on the other hand, posted 5 close wins, 4 of them over unrated teams, and 1 of them against an FCS team! When you look deeper beneath those 7-6 and 10-3 straight records, this is not actually even close: Tennessee > Kentucky.

Wisconsin > Iowa

Also discussed previously, 9-4 Wisconsin should be rated ahead of 10-4 Iowa due to decisively defeating Iowa 27-7.

San Diego State > Utah State

I think that 12-2 San Diego State will be rated just ahead of 11-3 Utah State in the final AP poll, but just in case, let me repeat what I wrote last time on this issue: Utah State did romp San Diego State 46-13 in the MWC title game, but San Diego State should nevertheless be ranked higher because they have a better relevant record (as well as straight record), rendering them 1 game better than Utah State for the season as a whole. The CFP committee got this one right in their last top 25.

The real difference maker here is that San Diego State owns a big upset win over PAC 12 champion Utah, while Utah State has not beaten a ranked team aside from San Diego State. In fact, San Diego State could viably be ranked ahead of Utah.

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