Minor Issues With the Top 10
There
are several minor issues I have with the top 10 that may be more a
matter of personal preference than a matter of logically incorrect
choices. I'll cover those briefly here.
11-1 Michigan has taken an upset loss and 12-0 Cincinnati has not, so
I'd rank Cincinnati higher. Michigan may have played a tougher
schedule, but as it stands now, each team has beaten just one ranked
opponent, and Cincinnati has actually beaten a higher ranked team than
Michigan has.
Alabama and Oklahoma State have each taken an upset loss (and to rather
lowly-ranked opponents), while Notre Dame has not (their loss came to
#3 Cincinnati,
ranked higher than Alabama and Oklahoma State), so I would rank Notre
Dame higher than Bama and OSU (though the Tide and Cowboys have notched
better wins than the Irish have).
Ohio State's high performance (wins by more than
a touchdown), coming against a schedule that includes 6 teams that
could be rated in a top 25, is so impressive to me that I would rank
them right
behind Michigan (though Ohio State does have an upset loss, and Notre
Dame, ranked right in front of them, does not).
Finally, I think Oklahoma should be moved up behind Baylor, as they
have taken no upset losses (on the other hand, the Sooners have
not beaten any ranked or near-ranked teams). Michigan State
#11 Michigan State has a
better relevant record than the 3 teams ranked just ahead of them, and
should be rated higher than those teams. MSU has taken one upset loss
(8-4 Purdue), but that is balanced out by a huge upset win over #2
Michigan. Oregon also owns a big upset win, over #7 Ohio State, but
Oregon has taken 2 upset losses (3-9 Stanford and #14 Utah), leaving
them effectively one game worse than MSU for the season. As for #8
Mississippi and #9 Baylor, each of those teams has taken an upset loss
to an unranked opponent, and neither has an upset win to make up for it.
San Diego State > Utah
Here
we have a pretty simple head-to-head issue. #19 San Diego State (11-1)
has already beaten #14 Utah (9-3) this season, and they should be
ranked higher. Utah does have a terrific "upset" win over #10 Oregon,
but they also have an upset loss to unranked 7-5 Oregon State. And just
in case you're suffering from the delusion that the PAC 12 represents a
tougher schedule than the MWC, allow me to inform you that the MWC went
5-5 against the PAC 12 this year.
And even if Utah beats Oregon in the PAC 12 title game this week, as
seems likely, as long as San Diego State wins the MWC title game, they
should still be ranked ahead
of Utah (and so should BYU, who also beat Utah this year). In such a
case, we would have the following clear victory chain: San Diego State > Utah > Oregon.
On the other hand, if San Diego State loses next week, then Utah can be
rated higher than them regardless of what happens in the PAC 12 title
game.
Wisconsin > Purdue > Iowa
Here
we have another head-to-head issue, though not as simple as the
previous due to Iowa's misleading 10-2 straight record. 8-4 Wisconsin
beat Iowa 27-7, 8-4 Purdue beat them 24-7, and both teams should be
ranked ahead of the Hawkeyes. Iowa is 10-2 solely because of their
ridiculously easy schedule: they have not played a single top 25 team! Well, they played 2 teams that should be ranked in the top 25, Wisconsin and Purdue, but they were embarrassed by both of them. The scores were just not close.
Since Wisconsin beat Purdue 30-13, our victory chain is like so: Wisconsin > Purdue > Iowa.
Let's
look at this in more detail, starting with Wisconsin vs. Iowa. Again,
Wisconsin crushed Iowa 27-7. Wisconsin did take upset losses to Penn State
and Minnesota, both of whom Iowa defeated, but Wisconsin beat Purdue,
whom Iowa lost to. This leaves Wisconsin and Iowa with the same
relevant record, but Wisconsin owns the head-to-head tiebreaker (and by
a dominating score). Wisconsin's other 2 losses came to #2 Michigan and
#6 Notre Dame, irrelevant when comparing Wisconsin to Iowa, as Iowa
faced no team remotely as powerful as Michigan and Notre Dame, and both
are ranked far higher than Iowa.
Purdue vs. Iowa is even clearer. Again, Purdue crushed Iowa 24-7.
Purdue did take one upset loss (to 8-4 Minnesota), but they also own a
huge upset win over #11 Michigan State, who is ranked higher than Iowa.
So Purdue has a relevant record that is effectively one game better than
that of Iowa. Purdue is 8-4 because they played #6 Notre Dame and #7
Ohio State, and again, Iowa played no team as powerful as either, so
those Purdue losses should be disregarded when comparing Purdue to Iowa.
Houston
As
I stated in the intro to this article, I think that 11-1 Houston is
highly overrated at #16, given that their loss came to unranked 6-6
Texas Tech, and they have not beaten a ranked or nearly-ranked team.
They have done nothing to merit a top 25 slot at all. Still, if they
beat Cincinnati in the AAC title game this week, then the Cougars will
have earned a spot in the rankings.
Pittsburgh
I
also think 10-2 Pittsburgh is highly overrated at #17, and in fact I
think that all 4 of the ACC teams that appear in the rankings this week
are overrated. The ACC is currently a very pathetic 34-20 against
nonconference opponents, so let's just keep that in mind when assessing
teams from the conference.
In the particular case of Pittsburgh, they have 2 upset losses to
unranked teams (Western Michigan and Miami-Florida), so they have a
worse relevant record than do a bunch of teams ranked behind them,
including San Diego State, Arkansas, and Texas A&M.
Clemson > Wake Forest
#22
Clemson (9-3) stomped on #18 Wake Forest (10-2) 48-27, and they should
be ranked higher. Clemson has one more loss than Wake Forest does
because they played #1 Georgia, and in fact that 10-3 loss is a
terrific performance that should help their cause rather than hurt it.
Furthermore, even if Wake Forest wins the ACC title game this week, Clemson should still be ranked higher than Wake Forest, and in that case, the relevant teams should be ranked as such: Clemson > Wake Forest > Pittsburgh.
Mississippi State > North Carolina State and Kentucky
Our 4th ranked ACC team, #21 North Carolina State (9-3), should
not be ranked at all. #25 Kentucky, also 9-3, should also not be
ranked, and both teams have the same problem. That problem is that both
lost to 7-5 Mississippi State, both by 2 touchdowns, and both teams
should be ranked behind Mississippi State, which is to say, out of the
top 25.
I've obviously been down on the ACC here, but Kentucky is actually a
worse case than North Carolina State. Kentucky has not beaten a single
FBS team with a winning record, and in addition to Mississippi State,
they took a loss to unrated 7-5 Tennessee (another team they should not
be rated ahead of). They have also posted half a dozen poor
performances, including a 5 point win over an FCS team.
Louisiana
11-1
Louisiana is also highly overrated at #20. Their loss came by 20 points
to 5-7 Texas, and I'm not sure that they should even be rated ahead of the
Longhorns. Their schedule has been lousy, offering them no chance to
prove much of anything, and their performance has easily been the worst
of any team in the top 25. They've won 6 games by a touchdown or less,
against 5 terrible Sun Belt teams and an FCS opponent.
Penn State
As
covered above, I think that 8-4 Wisconsin and 8-4 Purdue should be
ranked, both ahead of 10-2 Iowa. Well, there's another unranked Big 10
team that I think ought to be ranked, and that team is 7-5 Penn State.
Penn State has taken one upset loss, to Illinois, but their other 4
losses have come to teams ranked #2, #7, #11, and #15, so they have a
better relevant record than that of #17 Pittsburgh, as an example.
Their performance has been very strong, as their losses have been
close, and their wins have largely been dominating. Their best wins
have come over Wisconsin, who I think should be rated, and 6-6 Auburn,
who I think should be close.
Comments on the College Football Playoff Rankings 11-30-21
Historically,
the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings have
either been comparable to the AP Poll or superior to it. However, for the second year in a row,
the CFP's post-Thanksgiving ranking is significantly worse than the AP
poll's top 25. Here are the differences that I think matter, and which system I think made a better choice:
Alabama and Cincinnati
The AP poll has 12-0 Cincinnati #3, 11-1 Alabama #4, and the CFP
committee has those teams in the opposite order. Given that Alabama
lost to the committee's own #25 team, and Cincinnati beat a better team
than anyone Alabama beat, and Cincinnati posted 2 close wins (touchdown
or less) over unrated opponents, Alabama 3, I have to say that the AP
poll made a better choice here.
Iowa
As shown in the article above, Iowa should be rated behind 8-4
Wisconsin and 8-4 Purdue, who are both unrated in both systems. The AP
poll has Iowa #15, while the CFP gang has them at #13, so the CFP has
done a worse job here, since they separate Iowa even further from 2
teams they should be rated behind. The AP poll now leads 2-0.
The ACC
As I noted in the article above, all 4 of the rated ACC teams were
overrated by the AP poll, and the CFP voters rate all 4 of those teams
(Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, North Carolina State, and Clemson) even
higher than the AP poll does. Against nonconference opponents, the SEC
is 48-8, the Big 12 24-6, the Big 10 33-9, and the ACC a woeful 34-20.
Pitt has 2 losses to unrated teams, Wake 1, Clemson 1, NC State 2. The
committee is putting far, far too much stress on straight records, and
so not really taking strength of schedule into account, and they appear
to be under the misguided delusion that all the major conferences are
of comparable strength. They are not.
The AP poll did a better job of ranking all 4 ACC teams, so that's 4 more points for the AP poll, giving them a 6-0 lead.
Utah
The AP poll has Utah #14, while the CFP ratings put them #17, and I'll
say the CFP committee did a better job here, since Utah should be rated
behind San Diego State (who beat them;
more on this in the article above). The CFP rankings at least have Utah
closer to #19 San Diego State than the AP poll does. The AP poll's lead
is now 6-1.
Houston and Louisiana
As discussed in the article above, I think that both Houston and
Louisiana were overrated by the AP poll, and since the CFP committee
rated both teams much lower than the AP poll did, I'm giving the CFP
system 2 more points. The AP poll lead is cut to 6-3.
Texas A&M and Kentucky
The AP poll has 8-4 Texas A&M rated higher than 9-3 Kentucky, while
the CFP committee has them in the opposite order. In the article above,
I implied that Kentucky was the worst inclusion in the AP poll's top
25, so obviously I think the AP poll did a better job on this issue.
Repeating what I said above: Kentucky has not beaten a single
FBS team with a winning record, and in addition to losing to unrated Mississippi State,
they took a loss to unrated 7-5 Tennessee (they should not
be rated ahead of either team). They have also posted half a dozen poor
performances, including a 5 point win over an FCS team.
Our final score is AP poll 7, CFP committee 3. Easy win for the AP poll.
It makes me wonder why this group should be in charge of deciding anything about the postseason.
2021 TipTop 25
My
little experiment, a top 25 that began with a preseason ranking based
entirely on picking teams at random out of a hat, is now retired for
the season. You can check out the last top 25 in that experiment here.
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