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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: November 29, 2020

1) Alabama 8-0
2) Notre Dame 9-0
3) Ohio State 4-0
4) Clemson 8-1
5) Texas A&M 6-1
6) Florida 7-1
7) Cincinnati 8-0
8) Brigham Young 9-0
9) Miami (Florida) 7-1
10) Indiana 5-1
11) Georgia 6-2
12) Iowa State 7-2
13) Oklahoma 6-2
14) Coastal Carolina 9-0
15) Marshall 7-0
16) Northwestern 5-1
17) Southern Cal 3-0
18) Wisconsin 2-1
19) Oklahoma State 6-2
20) Louisiana 8-1
21) Oregon 3-1
22) Tulsa 5-1
23) Washington 3-0
24) Iowa 4-2
25) Liberty 9-1

Others Receiving Votes
North Carolina 6-3
Buffalo 4-0
Texas 5-3
Auburn 5-3
Colorado 3-0
North Carolina State 7-3
Boise State 4-1
San Jose State 4-0
Southern Methodist 7-3
Central Florida 6-3
Oregon State 2-2

If you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top 25 until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.

For example, 3-1 Oregon is currently ranked #21 despite taking a loss to an unranked team just this week. They have not beaten a good team, and they should not be ranked at all. However, if Oregon wins out, which would include a victory over #23 Washington, then the sportswriters will have been proven right, and if Oregon loses, they will fall out of the top 25 anyway, so this issue will sort itself out.

Obviously, while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late enough in the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more games were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.

Playoff Committee Rankings

UPDATED -- Comments on the 12-1-20 College Football Playoff rankings are now posted at the bottom of this article!

I will also add some comments on the playoff committee rankings to this article after that top 25 comes out on Tuesday, but only if there is anything in those rankings to address that is different than the issues with the AP poll that I am already addressing below.

Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final post-bowl top 25, I will not be fixing any of their rankings like I will the final AP poll top 25 in January, and for that reason, I will not be fully commenting on the playoff committee's top 25s.

Now let's get to commenting on the problems with the latest AP poll...

Marshall

7-0 Marshall is very underrated at #15. Compare them to #8 Brigham Young (9-0). Marshall has won all of their games by more than a touchdown, while BYU has posted a close win over unranked Texas-San Antonio (7-4). And Marshall has beaten 2 good teams (7-2 Appalachian State and 5-1 Florida Atlantic), while BYU has beaten just 1 (4-1 Boise State). Interestingly, Florida Atlantic routed UTSA 24-3 this year.

Marshall has also performed better than the teams ranked right behind BYU. #9 Miami (Florida) has posted 3 close wins over unranked teams, #10 Indiana was taken to overtime by 1-5 Penn State, #11 Georgia barely beat 2-6 Mississippi State, and both #12 Iowa State and #13 Oklahoma have actually lost to lower-ranked teams. Marshall should be ranked ahead of all these teams.

Coastal Carolina > Louisiana > Iowa State

9-0 Coastal Carolina (#14) won 30-27 at 8-1 Louisiana (#20), who won 31-14 at 7-2 Iowa State (#12). It doesn't get any simpler than that, and these teams should definitely be ranked in that order. Furthermore, these teams should remain ranked in that order even if Coastal Carolina and/or Louisiana lose next week.

Coastal Carolina is playing 9-1 Liberty next Saturday. Liberty has taken an upset loss, but so has Iowa State, so if Liberty beats Coastal Carolina, it just means that our victory chain becomes like so: Liberty > Coastal Carolina > Louisiana > Iowa State.

Louisiana is playing 7-2 Appalachian State on Friday. Appalachian State is unranked, but their only losses have come to unbeaten teams (7-0 Marshall and 9-0 Coastal Carolina), so if Appalachian State beats Louisiana, they too should move up ahead of Iowa State, giving us this victory chain: Coastal Carolina > Appalachian State > Louisiana > Iowa State.

It should also be noted that like Marshall, 9-0 Coastal Carolina is underrated in a general sense. They've had only 1 close win, but it came over a rated team (#20 Louisiana), whereas, again, #9 Miami (Florida) and #10 Indiana have posted close wins over unranked teams. Furthermore, unlike Coastal Carolina, Miami and Indiana have not beaten a ranked opponent. This year's AP poll has shown a nakedly unfair bias for "major" conference teams.

Miami (Florida)

As I previously noted, Miami (Florida) has now posted 3 straight close wins over unranked opponents, and that is very poor performance. Indiana and Georgia, ranked right behind the Hurricanes, have both performed far better than that, and ought to be ranked higher.

Oregon

As I said in the intro to this article, 3-1 Oregon (#21) should not be ranked, as they just took a loss to unranked Oregon State (2-2), and they have not beaten a ranked opponent. What happened last year was last year. Time to leave it behind. If Oregon wins out, then they will have earned a spot in the top 25, but until then, they have earned nothing.

Iowa and Liberty

Two more teams that should not be ranked are #24 Iowa (4-2) and #25 Liberty (9-1). Both these teams can earn their way into the top 25, Iowa by beating #18 Wisconsin, Liberty by beating #14 Coastal Carolina, but until either event happens, these teams have done nothing to earn a top 25 slot, as each of them has taken an upset loss to an unranked team, and of course, neither has beaten a ranked team.

Who Should Replace Oregon, Iowa, and Liberty in the Top 25?

If Oregon, Iowa, and Liberty are tossed out of the top 25, who should replace them? Well, next in line in the AP Poll's "Others Receiving Votes" section is North Carolina, but they have taken 2 upset losses and definitely should not be ranked. After that we have 4-0 Buffalo and 5-3 Texas, and these teams would make adequate replacements. Like Oregon, Iowa, and Liberty, Texas has taken an upset loss to an unranked team, but unlike all of those teams, Texas made up for their upset loss by beating a ranked team (#19 Oklahoma State).

Next in line is 5-3 Auburn, but they have also taken an upset loss, so instead the last top 25 slot should go to the next team in line, 3-0 Colorado.

Furthermore, 4-1 Boise State and 4-0 San Jose State would also make better top 25 residents than would Oregon, Iowa, and Liberty (not to mention North Carolina and Auburn).

Comments on the College Football Playoff Rankings 12-1-20

Historically, the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings have either been comparable to the AP Poll or superior to it. The only time I have noticed a CFP ranking being significantly worse than the AP poll is the December 2016 edition. Well, it has now happened again. Why has this happened? I don't know, but my guess is that the committee is leaning more heavily on computer rankings this year than they have in the past. You can find my critique of math-based (computer) ranking systems here. I've already noticed computer rankings being unusually harsh this season to teams that don't play in major conferences, and it may be that the CFP committee is simply following their lead.

On to my problems with the current CFP rankings...

Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, and the Big 12

This is pretty much the same issue discussed in my AP poll critique above, but the problem is far worse in the CFP rankings. Again, Coastal Carolina is unbeaten, 8-1 Louisiana lost only to them, and 7-2 Iowa State lost to Louisiana at home by 17 points! It could not be easier to logically rate these teams: Coastal Carolina > Louisiana > Iowa State > Oklahoma > Oklahoma State.

The AP poll has ISU #12, Oklahoma #13, CC #14, OSU #19, and Louisiana #20, which is bad, but the CFP's rankings of these teams is just ludicrous: Iowa State #9, Oklahoma #11, OSU #15, CC #18, and Louisiana #25.

Baffling.

Why bother with having the teams play the games at all if the committee is going to simply ignore the results? What is the point of even having a scoring system? Maybe we should stop keeping score and let the committee tell us who they think won each game.

Hot tip for the committee: Louisiana STOMPED on Iowa State 31-14 on the road. That really happened. Your own criteria specifies that you are supposed to account for head-to-head results, and yet, apparently, it doesn't matter who wins or loses. Are you ranking teams based on uniform colors you like?

But it's not just the head-to-head issue. 7-2 Iowa State, with 2 upset losses, is ranked right in front of 7-1 Miami, with 0 upset losses. Senseless.

North Carolina

6-3 North Carolina, with 2 "upset" losses to unranked teams, was thankfully unranked by the AP poll, but the CFP committee inexplicably ranks them all the way up at #17! I have no idea why this is, but frankly, North Carolina has been overrated by everyone all year long. They were #18 in the preseason AP poll, #19 in the coaches, and they rose as high as #5 in the AP poll in mid-October! This has been a mystery to me the entire season. I guess football people just really, really, really like Mack Brown.

But this team should not be ranked at all, let alone as high as #17, regardless of how charming Mack Brown is.

Iowa

As I wrote when critiquing the AP poll above, 4-2 Iowa should not be ranked in a top 25, but while the AP poll's #24 ranking for Iowa is dubious, the CFP's #19 ranking for the Hawkeyes is simply ridiculous. As I noted above, Iowa has taken a loss to an unranked team (Purdue). But here's another little tidbit for you: all 4 of the teams Iowa has beaten have a losing record. Just what is their top 25 ranking based on? Absolutely nothing.

Marshall

Even more than the AP poll, the CFP committee just does not like teams that don't play in a major conference. As I wrote previously, the AP poll severely underrates Marshall at #15, and the CFP ranking has them at a crazy #21. 7-0 Marshall has smashed everyone they've played. Their performance has been extremely comparable to that of Cincinnati, so why is Cincinnati #8 and Marshall #21?

Washington and Oregon

Well, here is one area where the committee bettered the AP poll. Washington is 3-0, Oregon 3-1, and Oregon just lost to Oregon State, whom Washington has already beaten. It is a no-brainer that Washington should be ranked higher than Oregon, and the CFP ranking does have Washington #22, Oregon #23, while the AP poll has Oregon #21, Washington #23. Congrats to the CFP committee on getting one thing a little more right than the AP poll did.

Of course, as I wrote in my AP poll critique, Oregon should not be ranked at all.

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