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Fixing the Final 2018 AP College Football Poll

1) Clemson 15-0
2) Alabama 14-1
3) Ohio State 13-1
4) Oklahoma 12-2
5) Notre Dame 12-1
6) Louisiana State 10-3
7) Georgia 11-3
Florida 10-3
9) Texas 10-4
10) Washington State 11-2
11) Central Florida 12-1
12) Kentucky 10-3
13) Washington 10-4
14) Michigan 10-3
15) Syracuse 10-3
16) Texas A&M 9-4
17) Penn State 9-4
18) Fresno State 12-2
19) Army 11-2
20) West Virginia 8-4
21) Northwestern 9-5
22) Utah State 11-2
23) Boise State 11-3
24) Cincinnati 11-2
25) Iowa 9-4

Here is the final AP poll college football top 25 for the 2018 season. The fixed final AP poll top 25 follows the article below.

But before I get to correcting the AP poll's errors, let me make one thing clear. This is not about what I would personally prefer to see in the rankings. I myself would be inclined to rank Fresno State and Army much lower than they will end up, and possibly out of the top 25 entirely, and I would definitely not put Boise State in my own top 25, just as a few examples. But those choices the AP poll made are logically viable, if barely. This is about fixing only those AP poll choices that are not logically valid or fair.

Speaking of which, it makes no sense at all for Georgia to be tied with Florida at #7. First of all, Georgia beat Florida resoundingly, 36-16, thereby winning the SEC East over Florida. And performance-wise, these teams weren't close: Florida was beaten by more than a touchdown 3 times, Georgia once, and Florida had 3 close wins (touchdown or less), Georgia none. On top of all that, Georgia also played a tougher schedule, facing more top 10 teams, top 25 teams, and bowl-qualifying teams.

So our first fix is a no-brainer: Pencil Georgia in at #7 and Florida at #8.

My ms-painting of Clemson's true freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who led his team to a dominating 44-16 win over Alabama in the national championship game.

Notre Dame

12-1 Notre Dame was ranked #3 in the last regular season AP poll, and really, nothing happened in the bowl games that should have changed that rating. Ohio State and Oklahoma each took an upset loss to a lower-ranked team this season, whereas Notre Dame lost only to #1 Clemson, so Notre Dame had a better relevant record than both, and they should be rated higher than both. They did lose their bowl game badly, by 27 points, but to the #1 team, and that is far better than losing by 29 points to a 6-7 team like Ohio State did. Alabama lost to Clemson by more than Notre Dame did and they still rightly ended up #2. And Ohio State's bowl result, a 5 point win over #13 Washington, was not impressive enough to merit a jump from #6 to #3: it was more the result of a #6-12 team than a top 5 team.

But I'm not surprised that Ohio State moved past both Notre Dame and Oklahoma, simply because Ohio State won their bowl game and Notre Dame and Oklahoma lost in the playoffs. Never mind that Notre Dame and Oklahoma were playing the best teams in the country, by far. The AP poll has always been thoughtless in exactly this way.

The real head-scratcher here is 12-2 Oklahoma moving past 12-1 Notre Dame in the final poll. I guess that this happened because Notre Dame lost to Clemson by 27 points, and Oklahoma "only" lost to Alabama by 11, but hello AP poll voters, Clemson beat Alabama by 28 points in the national championship game! Did you miss that game? Notre Dame lost to Clemson by less than Alabama did, and Alabama beat Oklahoma by 11 points! Add in the fact that 12-2 Oklahoma took an upset loss this season and Notre Dame did not, giving the Irish a better record that is clear to see, and this looks like the dumbest move by the AP poll this year. Anyone who had Notre Dame rated higher than Oklahoma before the bowls, then moved Oklahoma ahead of Notre Dame after the bowls, should be banned from voting in future AP polls. Because they are clearly incapable of reason.

Move Notre Dame back up to #3, dropping Ohio State and Oklahoma 1 spot each.

Ohio State vs. Oklahoma

Ohio State moving past Oklahoma in the final AP poll is a much tougher case, and I spent a lot of time going over this issue. Notre Dame was easy, because they did not take an upset loss this season, whereas Ohio State and Oklahoma did. Notre Dame therefore had the better relevant record. But Ohio State and Oklahoma had equal relevant records. These teams had very similar seasons, and honestly, if Ohio State had been rated higher than Oklahoma before the bowl games, I would likely let this rating stand. But Oklahoma was rated higher than Ohio State in the last regular season AP poll, and the bowl results do not support moving Ohio State ahead of Oklahoma in the final poll. Losing to #2 Alabama by 11 points is not a worse result than beating #13 Washington by 5 points.

If you compare Oklahoma and Ohio State game-by-game, they come out about the same except for one glaring difference: Oklahoma's upset loss came to #9 Texas by 3 points, and Ohio State's upset loss came to 6-7 Purdue by 29 points. Oklahoma should be rated higher.

Move Oklahoma back up to #4 and drop Ohio State to #5. Incidentally, both teams played at TCU this year, Ohio State winning by 12 and Oklahoma by 25.

Texas A&M and Kentucky

I addressed this issue last week. 9-4 Texas A&M (#16) should be rated ahead of 10-3 Kentucky (#12) because they beat the Wildcats 20-14 in overtime this year. Now that was a very close home win, so not decisive, but I just don't see anything in these teams' overall seasons to dismiss it. The reason Texas A&M had 4 losses and Kentucky had 3 is because Texas A&M played a nonconference game against #1 Clemson this year, and Kentucky did not play a comparable opponent at all. And Texas A&M only lost that game by 2 points, a spectacular performance (best anyone did against Clemson this year).

The average rating of these teams is #14, where Michigan is rated. Michigan has 745 poll points, and the average poll points for Kentucky and Texas A&M is 686, so we'll place these teams behind Michigan (#15 Syracuse has 683 poll points).

That results in the following ratings shift: Washington #12, Michigan #13, Texas A&M #14, Kentucky #15, and Syracuse #16.

Washington State, Washington, Auburn, and Mississippi State

#10 Washington State has a nice-looking 11-2 record, but they are the most overrated team in the final AP poll. They did not beat a single rated opponent, and they lost handily at home to the only rated team they even played, #13 Washington. Washington thereby won the PAC 12 North, and went on to win the conference championship, so it is highly dubious to rate Washington State higher. And this is another case of AP poll voters reacting irrationally to bowl results, because they had Washington rated higher than WSU before the bowls, and in their bowl games, Washington lost by 5 points to Ohio State, whom the AP poll rated #3 in the final poll, and WSU won by 2 points over unrated 8-5 Iowa State. Washington's performance was vastly better, yet AP poll voters senselessly dropped them behind WSU simply because they lost and WSU won.

But Washington has their own problems, as they took 3 "upset" losses to unrated teams, rendering them highly overrated as well.

Meanwhile, 8-5 Mississippi State and 8-5 Auburn, both unrated, are the most underrated teams in this year's final AP poll. All 5 of Mississippi State's losses came to teams rated by the AP poll, and they beat a rated team, so they had a relevant record that was better than that of almost half the teams in the top 25. Auburn took 1 loss to an unrated team, but they defeated 2 rated teams, so their relevant record was the same as Mississippi State's. Combined, WSU and Washington took 4 losses to unrated teams and beat 1 rated team (Washington over WSU), while Mississippi State and Auburn combined for just 1 loss to an unrated team and 3 wins over rated teams.

The Fix

So how do we address these issues? Well, as it happens, all four of these issues can be fixed by simply heeding head-to-head results, the most crucial being Auburn's season-opening 21-16 win over Washington. I have been harping on this issue for weeks now, and as I've said before, while that game happened a long time ago, nothing these teams have done since changes the fact that Auburn beat Washington 21-16 and should therefore be rated ahead of Washington. Yes, Washington State is 11-2, Washington 10-4, and Mississippi State and Auburn each 8-5. But WSU played 1 rated team, Washington played 2, MSU played 6, and Auburn played 5 (plus they played MSU, who should be rated), and that explains the disparity in their straight records entirely.

The head-to-head chain is simple: Mississippi State beat Auburn 23-9, Auburn beat Washington 21-16, and Washington beat Washington State 28-15. This is the order in which these teams should be ranked relative to each other. In this order, Mississippi State and Auburn would each have 1 upset loss and 1 upset win, Washington would have 2 upset losses (instead of 3), and WSU would have 1 upset loss (instead of 2), so putting these teams in this order solves a lot of problems with this AP poll.

Where to Rank Them

So where do we put them? Well, the average rating of the 4 teams (Mississippi State is #28 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the poll, Auburn #32) is #20.75, which would place the 4 teams behind #20 West Virginia and ahead of #21 Northwestern. However, Mississippi State and Auburn each have better relevant records than do all the teams currently ranked #16-20. Mississippi State has 1 upset loss (to Iowa in their bowl game) and 1 upset win (now-#14 Texas A&M), and those results balance each other out. Similarly, Auburn has 1 upset loss (Tennessee) and 1 upset win (also over Texas A&M). #20 West Virginia, on the other hand, has 2 upset losses and 1 upset win, so they are effectively 1 game worse on the season than Mississippi State and Auburn. Similarly, #19 Army has an upset loss and no upset wins, #18 Fresno State has 2 upset losses and no upset wins, #17 Penn State has 1 upset loss and no upset wins, and #16 Syracuse has 1 upset loss and no upset wins. So Mississippi State and Auburn should be moved up ahead of all of these teams.

Because Washington has 2 upset losses to unranked teams, and WSU has 1 such loss and no wins over rated teams, they could easily remain ranked back behind West Virginia. However, the AP poll originally ranked Washington and WSU higher than West Virginia, Army, Fresno State, Penn State, and Syracuse, so I'm going to move them up with Mississippi State and Auburn. This was a very tough one, because Washington and WSU were just not impressive, and I would rate them behind Syracuse and Penn State myself, but I think there was just enough of a case to let the AP poll have its way here. Syracuse's only win over a rated opponent came over West Virginia, who was playing without star quarterback Will Grier, so in reality Syracuse didn't really beat a rated opponent at all, much like Washington State.

We have a big ratings shift here: Central Florida #10, Michigan #11, Texas A&M #12, Kentucky #13, Mississippi State #14, Auburn #15, Washington #16, Washington State #17, Syracuse #18, Penn State #19, Fresno State #20, Army #21, West Virginia #22, Northwestern #23, Utah State #24, and Boise State #25. 11-2 Cincinnati and 9-4 Iowa fall out of the top 25.

Mississippi State vs. Iowa

This should be obvious, but just in case it's not, here are a few words on why 8-5 Mississippi State should be ranked higher than 9-4 Iowa, despite Iowa beating MSU 27-22 in the Outback Bowl. All 4 of Mississippi State's other losses came to teams ranked in the top 12 of the AP poll, whereas Iowa took a pair of losses to unranked teams (8-5 Wisconsin and 6-7 Purdue). So Iowa was effectively 2 games worse than MSU before the bowl game was even played. Iowa's win only closed the gap by 1. But the gap is even more than that, because MSU also beat a higher-ranked team (Texas A&M), so even with the bowl loss, they are effectively 2 games better than Iowa for the season. The reason Iowa is 9-4 and Mississippi State 8-5 is because Iowa played 2 rated teams and MSU played 6 (plus Auburn, who should be rated).

Iowa's Outback Bowl result was terrific, and it will get them into the final top 25 (as covered below), but it was only 1 game. #14 may seem like a high ranking for an 8-5 team that lost its bowl game to the #25 team, but that was Mississippi State's only upset loss, and every team behind them took at least 1 upset loss (some, like Iowa, took 2). At this point, Mississippi State and Auburn are the only teams rated #14-25 with 2 wins over rated opponents. And finally, there is performance. All 8 of Mississippi State's wins came by a touchdown or more, which cannot be said for any team ranked behind them.

Boise State > Utah State

This is another issue I addressed last week, and yet another example of AP poll voters reacting irrationally to the bowl results. 10-3 Boise State was #23 in the last regular season AP poll, 11-2 Utah State unranked, but Boise State's bowl game was canceled due to weather, while Utah State won theirs 52-13 over 9-4 North Texas, and now Utah State has passed Boise State up in the final poll. But beating the likes of North Texas by any score should not have erased the head-to-head result here.

This is simple. Boise State beat Utah State 33-24 in their regular season finale, thereby winning the Mountain division of the MWC over Utah State. That put them in the MWC title game, where they lost to Fresno State, who is ranked higher than both teams. That game is why Boise State has 1 more loss than Utah State.

Boise State did take 2 upset losses, Utah State only 1, but the head-to-head result makes them even. Moving Boise State ahead is the fact that they beat a higher-ranked team, Fresno State, in the regular season. That gives Boise State 2 big wins, over Fresno State and Utah State, while Utah State's only win of any note came over North Texas, which is pretty much worthless.

Switch 'em. Boise State #24, Utah State #25.

Iowa

For the 2nd year in a row, the last team I'm covering when fixing a final AP poll is scrappy Iowa.

9-4 Iowa took 2 upset losses, to 8-5 Wisconsin and 6-7 Purdue, but they made up for one of those losses with their big 27-22 win over now-#14 Mississippi State in the Outback Bowl. That gives Iowa the same relevant record as #25 Utah State (11-2), who took 1 upset loss (to 7-6 Michigan State), but beat no rated teams. In fact, as noted above, Utah State didn't beat anyone of much value at all. Their best win came over 9-4 North Texas, who was nearly worthless (North Texas' other losses came to Louisiana Tech, UAB, and Old Dominion). However, in addition to beating Mississippi State, Iowa also beat 8-5 Iowa State, who is #31 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll.

Iowa's upset losses both came to teams who are better than anyone Utah State defeated, a key point here. Iowa's FBS opponents were 81-73, while Utah State's were a miserable 66-84. And while Utah State performed very strongly this season, the fact is that they posted 2 close wins over unrated opponents, Iowa only 1. So I'm going to have to bump Utah State from slot #25 in favor of Iowa. In fact, Iowa State (1 upset loss and 1 upset win, over now-#22 West Virginia) should be rated ahead of Utah State as well, not that it matters.

As for Iowa and #24 Boise State, that is a very, very close case, and while I would rate Iowa higher myself (and Iowa State #25), I'm going to give this one to the AP poll. Iowa performed better, and their big upset win came in their bowl game, giving it greater emphasis, but Boise State did beat 3 good teams (Fresno State, Utah State, and 10-3 Troy) to Iowa's 2, so on that basis I'll let the AP poll have its way here.

Iowa takes slot #25 (where they started in the original AP poll), and Utah State falls out of the rankings.

Fixed AP Poll Top 25

Two teams fall out of this fixed AP poll top 25, 11-2 Utah State (#22) and 11-2 Cincinnati (#24). They are replaced by 8-5 Mississippi State (now #14) and 8-5 Auburn (#15). The 2 teams that fall out totaled 2 losses to unranked teams, and they did not defeat any AP-rated teams, or any teams that were even close. Discounting their game against each other, the 2 teams that replace them combined for just 1 loss to an unranked team, and they notched 3 wins against AP-rated teams. As usual, those numbers represent a big difference in favor of the fixed AP poll.

And since I didn't cover Cincinnati above, a quick word on them: like Utah State, 11-2 Cincinnati took an upset loss (to 8-5 Temple), and they did not beat anyone of much value. Their best win was likely their 35-31 bowl win over 6-7 Virginia Tech, and needless to say, that is not worth a top 25 slot at all. They also beat 9-4 Ohio 34-30 at home. Their performance was weaker than that of Utah State.

And here it is, your fixed final AP poll for the 2018 season, now logically coherent.

1) Clemson 15-0	--
2) Alabama 14-1	--
3) Notre Dame 12-1	+2
4) Oklahoma 12-2	--
5) Ohio State 13-1	-2
6) Louisiana State 10-3	--
7) Georgia 11-3	+0.5
8) Florida 10-3	-0.5
9) Texas 10-4	--
10) Central Florida 12-1	+1
11) Michigan 10-3	+3
12) Texas A&M 9-4	+4
13) Kentucky 10-3	-1
14) Mississippi State 8-5	IN
15) Auburn 8-5	IN
16) Washington 10-4	-3
17) Washington State 11-2	-7
18) Syracuse 10-3	-3
19) Penn State 9-4	-2
20) Fresno State 12-2	-2
21) Army 11-2	-2
22) West Virginia 8-4	-2
23) Northwestern 9-5	-2
24) Boise State 10-3	-1
25) Iowa 9-4	--

OUT: #22 Utah State 11-2
#24 Cincinnati 11-2

Fixed AP Polls
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