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Ranking the Top 25 Teams for the 2018 Season

January 1, 2019

AP poll voters' top 25 ballots will be due right after the National Championship game between #1 Alabama and #2 Clemson, but hopefully they have already started working on their final rankings. With a week to go before the final game, AP voters have plenty of time to look carefully at all the relevant teams and to put together a solid final top 25. To help in that regard, I offer some advice on how certain teams should be ranked (below), but first let's look at the final regular-season AP poll, along with the teams' subsequent bowl results thus far:

1) Alabama 14-0	Defeated #4 Oklahoma 45-34
2) Clemson 14-0	Defeated #3 Notre Dame 30-3
3) Notre Dame 12-1	Lost to #2 Clemson 30-3
4) Oklahoma 12-2	Lost to #1 Alabama 45-34
5) Ohio State 13-1	Defeated #9 Washington 28-23
6) Georgia 11-3	Lost to #14 Texas 28-21
7) Central Florida 12-1	Lost to #11 Louisiana State 40-32
8) Michigan 10-3	Lost to #10 Florida 41-15
9) Washington 10-4	Lost to #5 Ohio State 28-23
10) Florida 10-3	Defeated #8 Michigan 41-15
11) Louisiana State 10-3	Defeated #7 Central Florida 40-32
12) Washington State 11-2	Defeated #25 Iowa State 28-26
13) Penn State 9-4	Lost to #16 Kentucky 27-24
14) Texas 10-4	Defeated #6 Georgia 28-21
15) West Virginia 8-4	Lost to #17 Syracuse 34-18
16) Kentucky 10-3	Defeated #13 Penn State 27-24
17) Syracuse 10-3	Defeated #15 West Virginia 34-18
18) Mississippi State 8-5	Lost to 9-4 Iowa 27-22
19) Fresno State 12-2	Defeated 7-6 Arizona State 31-20
20) Utah 9-5	Lost to 9-5 Northwestern 31-20
21) Texas A&M 9-4	Defeated 9-4 North Carolina State 52-13
22) Army 11-2	Defeated 8-5 Houston 70-14
23) Boise State 10-3	No bowl game
24) Missouri 8-5	Lost to 7-6 Oklahoma State 38-33
25) Iowa State 8-5	Lost to #12 Washington State 28-26

Others Receiving Votes (in order from most poll points to least)

Northwestern 9-5	Defeated #20 Utah 31-20
Utah State 11-2	Defeated 9-4 North Texas 52-13
North Carolina State 9-4	Lost to #21 Texas A&M 52-13
Cincinnati 11-2	Defeated 6-7 Virginia Tech 35-31
Stanford 9-4	Defeated 7-7 Pittsburgh 14-13
Appalachian State 11-2	Defeated 8-6 Middle Tennessee 45-13
Alabama Birmingham 11-3	Defeated 8-6 Northern Illinois 37-13
Iowa 9-4	Defeated #18 Mississippi State 27-22
Oregon 9-4	Defeated 7-6 Michigan State 7-6
Troy 10-3	Defeated 10-4 Buffalo 42-32

Florida, Louisiana State, and Georgia

Based on where these three teams were ranked in the last poll, and on their bowl results, I expect the final AP poll to rank 10-3 Florida highest, then 10-3 LSU, and then 11-3 Georgia. This would not be logically correct.

If Florida were ranked highest, they would have 3 "upset" losses, which is just too many. The difference between these teams is that Georgia and LSU played #1 Alabama, and Florida did not. Because of that, you should think of Georgia and LSU as having 2 losses when comparing them to 10-3 Florida. And since LSU defeated Georgia 36-16 this season, the correct order for these 3 teams is LSU > Georgia > Florida.

This order makes perfect sense in a number of ways. First of all, these 3 teams defeated each other in a circle, LSU beating Georgia 36-16, Georgia beating Florida 36-17, and Florida beating LSU 27-19. As you can see, Florida's win is the weakest of the 3. LSU took 1 upset loss, in overtime at 9-4 Texas A&M, Georgia took 1, to 9-4 Texas in the Sugar Bowl, and Florida took 2 upset losses (10-3 Kentucky and 8-5 Missouri, both at home). As you can see, LSU took the "best" loss, as it was razor-close, on the road, and to a team that will be ranked. Georgia's loss came in their bowl game, which carries extra weight and is thus more damaging, and they were dominated in that game. And Florida, of course, took 2 upset losses, both at home, both by more than a touchdown, and one of them to a team that will be unranked in the final AP poll.

Placed behind LSU and Georgia, Florida would have 2 upset losses instead of 3, and they would have an upset win (over LSU) making up for one of the losses. This would make their rating far more sound.

A word on Georgia vs. Texas

It is possible, if unlikely, that 10-4 Texas (now #14) will be ranked higher than 11-3 Georgia (#6) in the final poll, due to Texas' 28-21 win over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. This should not happen, because Texas has 3 upset losses, and placed behind Texas, Georgia would have none. So Georgia has a better relevant record than Texas does, and of course, they have a better straight record as well, making this easy to see. The Sugar Bowl was a huge win for Texas, and will earn them a high rating in the final poll, but they were very erratic this season, so let's not take that one game too far.

Texas A&M and Kentucky

9-4 Texas A&M will be rated lower than 10-3 Kentucky in the final AP poll, but they should be rated higher due to a head-to-head win over the Wildcats. This was a very close home win, 20-14 in overtime, but I don't see anything in the schedules or performances of the 2 teams to ignore it. The reason Texas A&M has 1 more loss is because they played #2 Clemson in a nonconference game (losing by just 2 points!), and Kentucky did not play a comparable opponent. These teams have the same relevant record, so head-to-head should be the tie-breaker.

Mississippi State, Auburn, Washington, and Washington State

As I've been saying for weeks now, 8-5 Auburn should be rated higher than 10-4 Washington due to beating them 21-16 in the opener for both teams. That game was a long time ago, but nothing that either team has done since goes to show that the result was an anomaly. Washington's big problem is that they took 2 losses to teams that will be unranked, Oregon and California. Auburn did as well, but that just makes these teams even, with Auburn holding the head-to-head win that puts them one game better (all of Auburn's other losses came to teams that will be ranked in the top 10). But even in this regard, the teams are not even, because 8-5 Mississippi State should be ranked ahead of both, so Auburn only has 1 upset loss to Washington's 2.

Mississippi State, #18 in the last poll, lost their bowl game 27-22 to unranked Iowa (9-4), and that will likely knock MSU out of the final AP top 25. But it shouldn't, because that is Mississippi State's only upset loss. Their other 4 losses all came to teams that will be highly ranked, and they also defeated a team that will be higher ranked (Texas A&M). So even with their bowl upset, MSU has a better relevant record than Auburn and Washington do.

Now let's talk about Washington State. Due to their impressive-looking 11-2 straight record, WSU is likely to be the most overrated team in the final AP poll, probably about #11. But they need to be ranked back behind Washington, who needs to be ranked back behind Auburn. Washington was ranked higher than WSU in the last AP poll, but will likely drop back behind them in the final poll since Washington lost their bowl game and WSU won theirs. However, Washington lost 28-23 to #5 Ohio State, and WSU won 28-26 over #25 Iowa State, so you can see how irrational it would be to drop Washington behind WSU based on those results. In fact, those results only go to show that Washington should be ranked ahead of WSU. WSU is 11-2 because their schedule was vastly easier than any of these teams. After I have fixed the final AP poll next week, Washington will be the only top 25 team WSU will have played this season, and they lost that game, at home, and it wasn't close.

Those are a lot of words for what is really just a simple head-to-head chain. Mississippi State beat Auburn 23-9, Auburn beat Washington 21-16, and Washington beat Washington State 28-15.

So Mississippi State > Auburn > Washington > Washington State.

Iowa vs. Mississippi State

9-4 Iowa (unranked) beat 8-5 Mississippi State (#18) 27-22 in the Outback Bowl, and because of that, Iowa will likely be ranked in the final AP poll and Mississippi State will not. However, do not be fooled by their straight records, or by that one result, because Mississippi State should remain ranked ahead of Iowa. That was a terrific result for Iowa, and it should get them into the final top 25, but it is their only real win of note. Iowa took 2 losses to teams that will be unranked (8-5 Wisconsin and 6-7 Purdue), while Mississippi State took none, so MSU was effectively 2 games better than Iowa before the teams even played. The bowl result only closes that gap by 1. But the gap is even bigger, because MSU also owns a win over a high-ranked team (Texas A&M), and Iowa does not (other than MSU).

When the final AP poll is released, Iowa will have played 2 ranked teams and Mississippi State will have played 6, and that is why Iowa is 9-4 and MSU 8-5. A huge schedule difference. But Mississippi State has the clearly better relevant record.

We also have a circle here. Yes, Iowa beat Mississippi State 27-22 in their bowl game, but MSU beat Auburn 23-9 this year, Auburn beat Purdue 63-14 in their bowl game, and Purdue beat Iowa 38-36 in the regular season. Which goes to show why you shouldn't get too carried away by any one result.

Utah and Stanford

9-5 Utah had been ranked #20 in the last AP poll, so their 31-20 bowl loss to Northwestern is bound to knock them out of the final AP poll's top 25. It is possible that 9-4 Stanford, who beat 7-7 Pittsburgh 14-13 in their bowl game, will sneak into slot #25 in the final poll. But they should not. Utah, who beat Stanford 40-21 on the road (very decisive) should remain ranked ahead of Stanford. The reason Utah has 1 more loss than Stanford is because they had to play Washington twice, and they should not be punished for playing a tougher schedule.

Utah State and Boise State

10-3 Boise State had been ranked #23 in the last AP poll, 11-2 Utah State just outside the top 25 at #27. Boise State's bowl game was canceled due to weather, and Utah State won theirs 52-13 over 9-4 North Texas. It is possible that Utah State could move past Boise State in the final AP poll due to their better-looking straight record and the impressive score in their bowl win, but this should not happen. Beating North Texas by any score is not impressive enough to move Utah State past Boise State, who beat Utah State 33-24 in their regular season finale. That win put Boise State in the MWC title game, which they lost to Fresno State, who will be ranked higher than both teams. That is why Boise State has 1 more loss than Utah State.

But the real point here is that the AP poll was correct when they rated Boise State higher in their last poll, and Utah State's bowl result shouldn't change that.

Looking Ahead to Fixing Next Week's Final Poll

My prediction is that when I fix next week's poll, I'll be dropping 11-2 Utah State and either 11-2 Cincinnati or 9-4 Stanford out of the top 25, and I will be replacing them with 8-5 Mississippi State and 8-5 Auburn. As I said above, Stanford should not be rated ahead of Utah, so let's compare Utah State/Cincinnati to Mississippi State/Auburn. Utah State and Cincinnati each took 1 loss to a team that will not be ranked in the final AP poll, and neither team defeated an opponent that will be close to ranked. Meanwhile, discounting their game against each other, Auburn also took 1 loss to a team that will not be ranked, but MSU took none, and Auburn defeated 2 teams that will be ranked in the final AP poll, and MSU defeated 1.

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