Home

Comments on the AP College Football Poll: December 2, 2018

1) Alabama 13-0
2) Clemson 13-0
3) Notre Dame 12-0
4) Oklahoma 12-1
5) Ohio State 12-1
6) Georgia 11-2
7) Central Florida 12-0
8) Michigan 10-2
9) Washington 10-3
10) Florida 9-3
11) Louisiana State 9-3
12) Washington State 10-2
13) Penn State 9-3
14) Texas 9-4
15) West Virginia 8-3
16) Kentucky 9-3
17) Syracuse 9-3
18) Mississippi State 8-4
19) Fresno State 11-2
20) Utah 9-4
21) Texas A&M 8-4
22) Army 9-2
23) Boise State 10-3
24) Missouri 8-4
25) Iowa State 8-4

Others Receiving Votes
Northwestern 8-5
Utah State 10-2
North Carolina State 9-3
Cincinnati 10-2
Stanford 8-4
Appalachian State 10-2
Alabama Birmingham 10-3
Iowa 8-4
Oregon 8-4
Troy 9-3

If you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top 25 until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.

For example, I think that 8-3 West Virginia (#15) should be rated ahead of 9-4 Texas (#14) due to beating the Longhorns in Austin this season, not to mention sporting a better record. But if Texas beats #6 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, then the sportswriters will have been proven right. And if Texas loses, and if West Virginia defeats #17 Syracuse in the Camping World Bowl, then West Virginia will be rated higher than Texas in the final AP poll anyway.

Obviously, while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late enough in the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more games were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.

My comments on this week's AP poll are pretty much the same as my comments on last week's AP poll, so the bulk of what follows is an edited repeat of what I wrote last week...

West Virginia and Texas

As previously stated, I think that 8-3 West Virginia (#15) should be ranked ahead of 9-4 Texas (#14) due to the fact that they defeated Texas 42-41 in Austin, as well as the fact that they have a better record. Frankly, the fact that the AP poll placed Texas just in front of West Virginia is baffling, and it is even more baffling that the College Football Playoff Committee, which supposedly takes more time with these decisions, made the exact same choice in their final rankings.

Not only did West Virginia defeat Texas in Austin, and not only does West Virginia have a better record than Texas, but West Virginia also outperformed Texas on the season, and it is not close. These teams played 8 common opponents, and West Virginia outscored those teams by a total of 111 points, while Texas outscored the same teams by a total of just 42 points. Not only that, but we just watched Oklahoma beat Texas by 12 points in the Big 12 title game, and only one week earlier, we saw West Virginia lose to Oklahoma by just 3 points. How can this case be any clearer?

Kentucky, Florida, and Louisiana State

And here we have another head-to-head issue. 9-3 Kentucky (#16) defeated 9-3 Florida (#10) 27-16 on the road, and they should therefore be rated higher. The thing is, if Kentucky is #16, then Florida has 2 upset losses, while 9-3 LSU (#11) only has 1, and LSU made up for theirs with an upset win (over #6 Georgia). So Florida's relevant record would be worse than LSU's, even with their head-to-head win over LSU. But if you correctly place Kentucky ahead of Florida, then Florida and LSU would have the same relevant record, and head-to-head wins out.

The head-to-head chain is simple: Kentucky > Florida > LSU.

More SEC

Kentucky isn't the only underrated SEC team. There are 5 more! Maybe they'll be exposed in their bowl games, but as of now the SEC is a ridiculous 50-6 in nonconference games, and there really isn't that much difference from Kentucky to Florida to LSU to MSU to A&M to Missouri to Auburn to South Carolina. As such, it doesn't make much sense for these teams to be separated by such large margins in the rankings.

Mississippi State

8-4 Mississippi State (#18) took their losses to teams ranked #1, #10, #11, and #16, and that last one, Kentucky, should be moved ahead of #10 Florida, as discussed above. MSU should be moved up right behind LSU (#11). That's because every team ranked between LSU and MSU has taken an upset loss to an unranked team, and MSU has not. Furthermore, all 8 of MSU's wins have come by more than a touchdown, which cannot be said for any of the aforementioned teams ranked ahead of them.

Texas A&M

8-4 Texas A&M (#21) has taken a loss to an unranked team (7-5 Auburn), but they more than made up for it with 2 big upset wins over higher-ranked teams (#11 LSU and #16 Kentucky). As such, they have a better relevant record than a bunch of teams that are ranked ahead of them. They should be moved up behind Mississippi State, who beat them (and who, again, should be moved up behind LSU).

Missouri

8-4 Missouri (#24) has also taken a loss to an unranked team (7-5 South Carolina), but they only made up for it with one big upset win, 38-17 at #11 Florida. That's not as good as Texas A&M, but it is, again, better than many teams ranked ahead of Missouri in the top 25. Missouri should at least be moved up behind Texas A&M. Missouri is running hot, and has won 4 games in a row, including the crushing of #10 Florida, by an average margin of 24 points.

In fact, moving Missouri up behind Texas A&M is actually the minimum that should be done. Missouri could be legitimately ranked all the way up ahead of Florida, whom they stomped, and behind Kentucky, who beat them. I'll be taking a closer look at that possibility when I fix the final AP poll in January.

Auburn and Washington

7-5 Auburn received no poll votes at all, but they belong in the top 25. Like Texas A&M, they took 1 upset loss (5-7 Tennessee), and they more than made up for it with 2 big "upset" wins, over #9 Washington and #21 Texas A&M (who, again, should be ranked higher). But I dressed up that word "upset" in those quotation marks for a reason: Auburn should be ranked ahead of Washington. I know, I know, Washington is 10-3 and Auburn is 7-5, but Washington plays in the PAC 12 and Auburn plays in the SEC.

Look at Washington. Placed where they are now at #9, they have 3 upset losses, all to unranked opponents, and no upset wins, giving them the worst relevant record of any team in the top 25. But if you place them behind Auburn, they make a lot more sense. Furthermore, right now, it makes no sense for 10-3 Washington to be rated ahead of 10-2 Washington State (#12). But if you were to move Auburn ahead of Washington, then UW and WSU would have the same relevant record, and UW could legitimately be rated higher than WSU due to their head-to-head win.

So: Auburn > Washington > Washington State.

South Carolina

7-5 South Carolina has also received no poll votes. All 5 of South Carolina's losses have come to ranked teams. So they have no upset losses, unlike most of the teams ranked in the top 25. They own one big win, over #24 Missouri (who should be ranked higher, as covered above).

Stanford and Oregon

Here are a couple more unrated teams that deserve to be rated. Pending their bowl results, of course. 8-4 Stanford (#30 in Others Receiving Votes section) took their 4 losses to teams ranked #3, #9, #12, and #20. With no upset losses, unlike many teams in the bottom of the top 25, Stanford ought to be moved up to right behind #20 Utah.

8-4 Oregon (#34) took one upset loss, to 5-7 Arizona, but they made up for it with a big upset win over #9 Washington. They should be ranked right behind Stanford, who beat them in overtime.

Fresno State, Boise State, and Utah State

11-2 Fresno State (#19), 10-3 Boise State (#23), and 10-2 Utah State (just outside the top 25 at #27) are all overrated. Fresno State has beaten 1 good team, Boise State in the MWC title game, and Boise State has beaten 2 good teams, Fresno State and Utah State, and Utah State has not beaten a single opponent of any value. So the only wins of value any of these teams has is against each other, and there isn't much reason to think that's worth much. Moreover, #23 Boise State has 2 "upset" losses, to 7-5 San Diego State and to 6-6 Oklahoma State. And as the quotation marks serve to indicate, I'm not so sure that Boise's 44-21 loss at Oklahoma State was an upset at all. What would lead me to believe that that outcome was a fluke?

Fresno State lost to 6-6 Minnesota, and Utah State lost to 7-5 Michigan State, and I don't see much reason to think that those outcomes are flukes either. In fact, I see a pattern here. "Strong" MWC team loses to mid-level major conference team, "strong" MWC team loses to mid-level major conference team, and "strong" MWC team loses to mid-level major conference team. Three identical "flukes"? Don't think so.

All 3 of these teams are playing opponents that are mediocre or worse in their bowl games, so all 3 sit in good shape to finish ranked. It is far, far less likely that they will finish ranked after I fix the final poll.

Cincinnati

10-2 Cincinnati is hanging around at #29 in the Others Receiving Votes section, in decent position to slip into the final top 25 as other teams fall out of their way in bowl season. But this team also does not belong in a top 25. Their "big" wins have come over 8-4 Ohio and 7-5 South Florida, and that just isn't impressive enough. And unfortunately for Cincinnati, beating 6-6 Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl will prove nothing.

Appalachian State

10-2 Appalachian State is a similar story to Cincinnati, but at #31 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll, getting into the final top 25 is less likely. Still, allow me to suggest that they should not finish ranked, and their beating 8-5 Middle Tennessee in the New Orleans Bowl will not change my mind on that.

Home