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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: November 25, 2018

1) Alabama 12-0
2) Clemson 12-0
3) Notre Dame 12-0
4) Georgia 11-1
5) Oklahoma 11-1
6) Ohio State 11-1
7) Central Florida 11-0
8) Michigan 10-2
9) Texas 9-3
10) Washington 9-3
11) Florida 9-3
12) Louisiana State 9-3
Washington State 10-2
14) Penn State 9-3
15) West Virginia 8-3
16) Kentucky 9-3
17) Utah 9-3
18) Syracuse 9-3
19) Boise State 10-2
20) Mississippi State 8-4
21) Northwestern 8-4
22) Texas A&M 8-4
23) Army 9-2
24) Iowa State 7-4
25) Fresno State 10-2

Others Receiving Votes
Utah State 10-2
Missouri 8-4
North Carolina State 8-3
Cincinnati 10-2
Stanford 7-4
Iowa 8-4
Oregon 8-4
Appalachian State 9-2
Buffalo 10-2

If you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top 25 until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.

For example, I think that 8-3 West Virginia (#15) should be rated ahead of 9-3 Texas (#9) due to beating the Longhorns in Austin this season. But if Texas beats #5 Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game this week, then the sportswriters will have been proven right. And if Texas loses, they might well drop back behind West Virginia in the next AP poll anyway. So this issue will likely sort itself out.

Obviously, while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late enough in the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more games were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.

Playoff Committee Rankings

I will also add some comments on the playoff committee rankings to this article after that top 25 comes out on Tuesday, but only if there is anything in those rankings to address that is different than the issues with the AP poll that I am already addressing below. In past years, the differences between the playoff committee rankings and the AP poll's top 25 have been minor. Unfortunately, the committee largely suffers from the same logic problems the AP poll does-- they rely far too much on teams' straight records when ranking them, and they place far too much emphasis on the last game played for each team.

Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final post-bowl top 25, I will not be fully fixing any of their rankings like I will the final AP poll top 25 in January.

Now let's get to commenting on the problems with the latest AP poll...

West Virginia and Texas

As previously stated, I think that 8-3 West Virginia (#15) should be ranked ahead of 9-3 Texas (#9) due to the fact that they defeated Texas 42-41 in Austin. Texas is in the Big 12 title game and West Virginia is not because Texas took 2 losses in conference play, while WV took 3. However, Texas also lost a nonconference game, to 5-7 Maryland, so overall, the 2 teams are even for the season. Head-to-head tie-breaker should put West Virginia ahead. Texas can earn a higher rating by beating Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game this week.

I should note that Texas seems drastically overrated at #9 anyway. They not only lost to #15 West Virginia, but they also took another 2 losses to unrated opponents, and on top of that they have posted 5 close wins (touchdown or less) over unrated teams, the most of any team ranked in the top 25. I am mystified by their #9 ranking.

Kentucky, Florida, and Louisiana State

And here we have another head-to-head issue. 9-3 Kentucky (#16) defeated 9-3 Florida (#11) 27-16 on the road, and they should therefore be rated higher. The thing is, if Kentucky is #16, then Florida has 2 upset losses, while 9-3 LSU (#12) only has 1, and LSU made up for theirs with an upset win (over #4 Georgia). So Florida's relevant record would be worse than LSU's, even with their head-to-head win over LSU. But if you correctly place Kentucky ahead of Florida, then Florida and LSU would have the same relevant record, and head-to-head wins out.

The head-to-head chain is simple: Kentucky > Florida > LSU.

More SEC

Kentucky isn't the only underrated SEC team. There are 5 more! Maybe they'll be exposed in their bowl games, but as of now the SEC is a ridiculous 49-6 in nonconference games, and there really isn't that much difference from Kentucky to Florida to LSU to MSU to A&M to Missouri to Auburn to South Carolina. As such, it doesn't make much sense for these teams to be separated by such large margins in the rankings.

Mississippi State

8-4 Mississippi State (#20) took their losses to teams ranked #1, #11, #12, and #16, and that last one, Kentucky, should be moved ahead of #11 Florida, as discussed above. MSU should be moved up right behind LSU (#12). That's because every team ranked between LSU and MSU has taken an upset loss to an unranked team, and MSU has not. Furthermore, all 8 of MSU's wins have come by more than a touchdown, which cannot be said for any of the aforementioned teams ranked ahead of them.

Texas A&M

8-4 Texas A&M (#22) has taken a loss to an unranked team (7-5 Auburn), but they more than made up for it with 2 big upset wins over higher-ranked teams (#12 LSU and #16 Kentucky). As such, they have a better relevant record than a bunch of teams that are ranked ahead of them. They should be moved up behind Mississippi State, who beat them (and who, again, should be moved up behind LSU).

Missouri

8-4 Missouri (#27 in the Others Receiving Votes section) has also taken a loss to an unranked team (7-5 South Carolina), but they only made up for it with one big upset win, 38-17 at #11 Florida. That's not as good as Texas A&M, but it is, again, better than many teams ranked ahead of Missouri in the top 25. Missouri should be moved up behind Texas A&M. Missouri is running hot, and has won 4 games in a row, including the crushing of #11 Florida, by an average margin of 24 points.

Auburn and Washington

7-5 Auburn received no poll votes at all, but they belong in the top 25. Like Texas A&M, they took 1 upset loss (5-7 Tennessee), and they more than made up for it with 2 big "upset" wins, over #10 Washington and #22 Texas A&M (who, again, should be ranked higher). But I dressed up that word "upset" in those quotation marks for a reason: Auburn should be ranked ahead of Washington. I know, I know, Washington is 9-3 and Auburn is 7-5, but Washington plays in the PAC 12 and Auburn plays in the SEC.

Look at Washington. Placed where they are now at #10, they have 3 upset losses, all to unranked opponents, and no upset wins, giving them the worst relevant record of any team in the top 25. Their rating makes less sense than that of #9 Texas (covered above). But if you place them behind Auburn, they make a lot more sense. Furthermore, right now, it makes no sense for 9-3 Washington to be rated ahead of 10-2 Washington State (#12). But if you were to move Auburn ahead of Washington, then UW and WSU would have the same relevant record, and UW could be rated higher than WSU due to their head-to-head win.

So: Auburn > Washington > Washington State.

South Carolina

6-5 South Carolina has also received no poll votes. They are likely to be 7-5 after playing Akron this weekend. All 5 of South Carolina's losses have come to ranked teams. So no upset losses, unlike most of the teams ranked in the top 25. They own one big win, over Missouri (covered above).

Stanford and Oregon

Here are a couple more unrated teams that deserve to be rated. Pending their bowl results, of course. 8-4 Stanford (#30 in Others Receiving Votes section) took their 4 losses to teams ranked #3, #10, #12, and #17. With no upset losses, unlike many teams in the bottom of the top 25, Stanford ought to be moved up to right behind Utah (#17).

8-4 Oregon (#32) took one upset loss, to 5-7 Arizona, but they made up for it with a big upset win over #10 Washington. They should be ranked right behind Stanford, who beat them in overtime.

Boise State, Fresno State, and Utah State

10-2 Boise State (#19), 10-2 Fresno State (#25), and 10-2 Utah State (just outside the top 25 at #26) are all overrated. Boise State has beaten 2 good teams, Fresno State and Utah State, but the problem is that neither of those teams has beaten a single opponent of any value. So how much is beating them worth? Moreover, Boise State has 2 "upset" losses, to 7-5 San Diego State and to 6-6 Oklahoma State. And as the quotation marks serve to indicate, I'm not so sure that Boise's 44-21 loss at Oklahoma State was an upset at all. What would lead me to believe that that outcome was a fluke? Finally, Boise State's relevant record is at least 2 games worse than that of all of the 5 unrated teams that I think should be rated.

Fresno State lost to 6-6 Minnesota, and Utah State lost to 7-5 Michigan State, and I don't see much reason to think those outcomes are flukes either. In fact, I see a pattern here. "Strong" MWC team loses to mid-level major conference team, "strong" MWC team loses to mid-level major conference team, and "strong" MWC team loses to mid-level major conference team. Three identical "flukes"? Don't think so.

Northwestern

Like Boise State, 8-4 Northwestern (#21) took 2 upset losses, to 7-5 Duke and to 4-7 Akron, and like Boise State, Northwestern therefore has a relevant record that is at least 2 games worse than that of all the unranked teams that I think should be rated. Unlike Boise, NW has not beaten a rated opponent. Northwestern's performance has also been quite poor (5 close wins over unrated opponents). As of now, Northwestern does not at all belong in a top 25. If they were to beat #6 Ohio State in the Big 10 title game this week, on the other hand...

Cincinnati

10-2 Cincinnati is hanging around at #29 in the Others Receiving Votes section, in strong position to slip into the final top 25 as other teams fall out of their way in bowl season. But this team also does not belong in a top 25. Their "big" wins have come over 8-4 Ohio and 7-5 South Florida, and that just isn't impressive enough. And unfortunately for Cincinnati, it doesn't look like they'll get a chance to prove anything in their bowl game either.

2018 TipTop 25

My little experiment, a top 25 that began with a preseason ranking based entirely on picking teams at random out of a hat, is now retired for the season. You can check out the last top 25 in that experiment here.

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