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Ranking the Top 25 Teams for the 2024 Season

January 13, 2025

AP poll voters' top 25 ballots will be due right after the National Championship game January 20, but hopefully they have already started working on their final rankings. With a week still to go before the final game, AP voters have plenty of time to look carefully at all the relevant teams and to put together a solid final top 25. To help in that regard, I offer some advice on how certain teams should be ranked (below), but first let's look at the final regular-season AP poll, along with the teams' subsequent results thus far:

1) Oregon 13-1	Lost to #6 Ohio State 41-21
2) Georgia 11-3	Lost to #3 Notre Dame 23-10
3) Notre Dame 14-1	Defeated #9 Indiana 27-17 Defeated #2 Georgia 23-10 Defeated #5 Penn St 27-24
4) Texas 13-2	Defeated #13 Clemson 38-24 Defeated #10 ASU 39-31 in OT Lost to #6 Ohio State 28-14
5) Penn State 13-3	Defeated #12 SMU 38-10 Defeated #8 Boise St 31-14 Lost to #3 Notre Dame 27-24
6) Ohio State 12-2	Defeated #7 Tennessee 42-17 Defeated #1 Oregon 41-21 Defeated #4 Texas 28-14
7) Tennessee 10-3	Lost to #6 Ohio State 42-17
8) Boise State 12-2	Lost to #5 Penn St 31-14
9) Indiana 11-2	Lost to #3 Notre Dame 27-17
10) Arizona State 11-3	Lost to #4 Texas 39-31 in OT
11) Alabama 9-4	Lost to 8-5 Michigan 19-13
12) Southern Methodist 11-3	Lost to #5 Penn St 38-10
13) Clemson 10-4	Lost to #4 Texas 38-24
14) South Carolina 9-4	Lost to #21 Illinois 21-17
15) Miami (Florida) 10-3	Lost to #18 Iowa St 42-41
16) Mississippi 10-3	Defeated 9-4 Duke 52-20
17) Brigham Young 11-2	Defeated #20 Colorado 36-14
18) Iowa State 11-3	Defeated #15 Miami (FL) 42-41
19) Army 12-2	Lost to 10-3 Navy 31-13 Defeated 5-8 La Tech 27-6
20) Colorado 9-4	Lost to #17 BYU 36-14
21) Illinois 10-3	Defeated #14 South Carolina 21-17
22) Syracuse 10-3	Defeated 8-5 WSU 52-35
23) Missouri 10-3	Defeated 8-5 Iowa 27-24
24) UNLV 11-3	Defeated 6-7 California 24-13
25) Memphis 11-2	Defeated 6-7 West Virginia 42-37

Others Receiving Votes (in order from most poll points to least)

Texas A&M 8-5	Lost to 7-6 Southern Cal 35-31
Louisville 9-4	Defeated 6-7 Washington 35-34
Duke 9-4	Lost to #16 Mississippi 52-20
Kansas State 9-4	Defeated 7-6 Rutgers 44-41
Marshall 10-3	Did not play
Louisiana State 9-4	Defeated 8-5 Baylor 44-31
Florida 8-5	Defeated 9-5 Tulane 33-8
Tulane 9-5	Lost to 8-5 Florida 33-8
Baylor 8-5	Lost to 9-4 LSU 44-31
Ohio 11-3	Defeated 9-5 Jacksonville St 30-27
Louisiana 10-4	Lost to 9-4 TCU 34-3

Penn State > Georgia > Texas

All 3 of 13-3 Penn State's losses came to teams that will/should be ranked higher than 11-3 Georgia in the final AP poll (Ohio State, Oregon, and Notre Dame), while Georgia took 2 upset losses to teams that will be ranked behind both Penn State and Georgia (Alabama and Mississippi). That gives Penn State a relevant record that is effectively 2 games better than that of Georgia for the season. In the playoffs, PSU lost to Notre Dame by 3, while Georgia lost to Dame by 13. PSU's other 2 losses were close as well, whereas Georgia lost to Ole Miss by 18. Due to all of this, Penn State (#5) should definitely be ranked ahead of Georgia (#2) in the final poll.

Having beaten 13-3 Texas twice, it need hardly be said that 11-3 Georgia should remain ranked ahead of the Longhorns in the final poll.

Tennessee

Due to their upset loss to unranked 7-6 Arkansas, I think that 10-3 Tennessee (#7) should be ranked behind 12-2 Boise State (#8) and 11-2 Indiana (#9), neither of whom took any upset losses.

Mississippi > Arizona State?

10-3 Mississippi and 11-3 Arizona State have essentially the same record, but I think that Ole Miss should be ranked higher than ASU in the final poll due to clearly better performance on the season. All 10 of Mississippi's wins came by more than a touchdown, whereas ASU posted 6 close wins (touchdown or less), 5 of them over unranked opponents, 4 over teams with losing records! However, I do think that it would be viable to rank 11-2 Brigham Young higher than Ole Miss (currently Mississippi is ranked one spot higher than BYU, and both won their bowl games big), and if the AP poll did that, then it need hardly be said that ASU being ranked higher than Ole Miss would be fine. The problem with that, though, is that while Mississippi compares well with ASU, their 3 upset losses and 1 upset win compare poorly with a bunch of teams ranked behind ASU, so if Mississippi is ranked behind ASU and BYU, then I think they will have to be dropped back to at least behind Alabama and ahead of South Carolina, whom they beat 27-3 on the road (more on where Alabama and SC should be ranked coming next). And Ole Miss could be dropped even further, back behind 8-5 Florida, who beat them in late November.

And just to be clear: 11-3 ASU should definitely be rated ahead of 11-2 BYU, as they beat them (and thereby won the Big 12). I doubt very much that AP poll voters would be dumb enough to drop ASU behind BYU because they lost in overtime to #4 Texas, but just in case, allow me to reiterate that that would be dumb.

I should note that if I were ranking Mississippi (3 upset losses and 1 upset win), Arizona State (2 upset losses), and Brigham Young, I would drop all 3 lower than where the AP poll is likely to put them. As implied above, the highest I would rank Ole Miss is behind Alabama (2 upset losses and 1 upset win) and ahead of South Carolina (Mississippi beat them 27-3 on the road). And as previously indicated, I might even rank Ole Miss further back, behind 8-5 Florida, who beat them 24-17 in late November (more on this later in the article). And as for ASU and BYU, I would drop them both behind Clemson (1 upset loss) and ahead of SMU (BYU beat SMU 18-15 on the road). More on where Alabama, South Carolina, Clemson, and SMU should be ranked coming next...

Illinois > Michigan > Alabama > South Carolina > Clemson > Southern Methodist

Here we have a long victory chain that is central to this year's final top 25, and that the AP poll is sure to mess up badly in their final rankings. 10-3 Illinois won 21-7 over 8-5 Michigan, who won 19-13 over 9-4 Alabama in their bowl game, who won 27-25 over 9-4 South Carolina, who won 17-14 at 10-4 Clemson in their regular season finale, and Clemson won 34-31 over 11-3 Southern Methodist in the ACC title game. And that is the order in which these teams should be ranked. Pretty simple. The confusion, as always, stems from the straight records of the teams involved. AP poll voters are simply incapable of taking strength of schedule into proper account.

Since it is certain that Illinois will be ranked higher than Michigan in the final poll, and nearly certain that Alabama will be ranked higher than South Carolina, I will just discuss the other parts of the above victory chain.

Michigan > Alabama

Again, Michigan beat Alabama 19-13 in their bowl game, giving the result greater weight. And while Michigan is 8-5 and Alabama 9-4, Michigan actually has a better relevant record than Alabama does. Michigan took just one upset loss (6-7 Washington). Their other 4 losses all came to highly ranked teams (13-3 Texas, 10-3 Illinois, 11-2 Indiana, and 13-1 Oregon). Alabama, on the other hand, took two upset losses (7-6 Vanderbilt and 6-7 Oklahoma). Due to that and the head-to-head result, Michigan was effectively 2 games better than Alabama for the season. Alabama did notch a great upset win over Georgia in game 4, but that is no better than Michigan's big win over Ohio State in their regular season finale.

South Carolina > Clemson > Southern Methodist

I covered this issue in my comments on the last AP poll. These 3 teams were ranked in the opposite order of their victory chain in that last AP poll, and all 3 lost their bowl games, so I expect them to still be ranked in the opposite order in the final top 25. It's too bad, because these head-to-head results were huge games that took place at the end of the season, and therefore shouldn't be difficult to remember and pay attention to.

Putting 10-4 Clemson one spot ahead of 9-4 South Carolina is especially head-scratching, since both teams had 4 losses. Clemson's win over SMU was terrific, a real season-saver, but they accomplished little else, as they did not defeat any other team that will be close to ranked in the final poll. And SMU wasn't all that impressive themselves, as they did not defeat a ranked team (though 9-4 Louisville should be ranked in the final poll). South Carolina beat 2 ranked teams (Clemson and 10-3 Missouri) and another team that was #26, just outside the last poll (8-5 Texas A&M). South Carolina played more bowl qualifiers and more winning teams that Clemson did, and needless to say, the SEC was the best major conference, while the ACC was the worst (a putrid 2-11 in their bowl games!). There is simply no reason for Clemson to be ranked higher. Throw in the fact that SC's 17-14 win over Clemson came on the road and in the regular season finale, giving it greater weight for both reasons, and there is simply no logical argument at all for Clemson.

10-4 Clemson and 11-3 Southern Methodist may be a bit more confusing due to those straight records, but the difference in their records comes down to the fact that Clemson played and lost to 10-4 South Carolina. However, since SMU did not themselves defeat a team ranked as highly as SC (or any ranked team), it doesn't make sense to punish Clemson for that. These teams have the same relevant record. SMU did beat Louisville, who beat Clemson, but Clemson made up for that by beating SMU head-to-head, and that should be the tie-breaker. Throw in the fact that Clemson's 34-31 win over SMU came in the ACC title game, giving it greater weight, and this should not be a debate.

Brigham Young > Southern Methodist

Also covered previously. I expect 11-2 Brigham Young to be rated higher than 11-3 Southern Methodist in the final AP poll, but just in case, let me remind the voters that, in addition to having a better record, BYU beat SMU 18-15 on the road this year. So let's not mess this one up.

Louisville > Miami (Florida) > Syracuse

Now here is a case where I think teams should be ranked in the opposite order of their head-to-head results. 10-3 Syracuse beat 10-3 Miami (Florida) 42-38 at home in their regular season finale, and Miami won 52-45 at 9-4 Louisville in mid-October, but these teams' straight records are illusions. If you look at their relevant records, these teams should be rated as follows: Louisville > Miami (Florida) > Syracuse.

In the final AP poll, I expect Syracuse to be ranked about #19, just ahead of Miami at about #20. Let's start by comparing these 2 teams. Syracuse, again, beat Miami 42-38 at home, but they also took a big three losses to unranked teams (3-9 Stanford, 7-6 Pitt, and 7-6 BC), and that is too big a problem to overcome. Miami only took one upset loss, so the head-to-head result only made up for one of the 2 games difference between the two. And that head-to-head result, as a close home win, was not decisive anyway. Syracuse also becomes a bit more palatable as a top 25 inclusion if Miami is ranked higher, giving them an upset win to balance out one of their 3 upset losses. But frankly, I think Syracuse is a dubious top 25 inclusion in any case. I doubt that I would rank them at all myself.

9-4 Louisville took just 1 upset loss (3-9 Stanford), and 10-3 Syracuse, again, took 3 upset losses. If Syracuse is ranked behind Miami, which they should be, they have one upset win to balance out 1 of their 3 upset losses, but Louisville also has an upset win over a higher-rated team (Clemson) to balance out their 1 upset loss, so in the end, Louisville had a relevant record that was effectively 2 games better than that of Syracuse for the season. Clearly Louisville should be ranked higher than them. Two of Louisville's losses came to Notre Dame and 11-3 Southern Methodist, who will be ranked higher than both Syracuse and Miami, and in fact neither Syracuse nor Miami even played a team ranked as highly as either of those teams. As such, those losses should be disregarded when comparing Louisville to Syracuse and Miami, and when you do that, Louisville has 2 losses, while Syracuse and Miami each have 3. Louisville should not be punished for playing a tougher schedule, yet the AP poll punishes teams for playing tougher schedules every single year.

Comparing Louisville to Miami, Louisville has 1 upset loss, Miami 2 (if ranked ahead of Syracuse, as they should be). Miami's head-to-head win would make them even, but Louisville has an upset win over Clemson, who will be ranked higher than Miami. That upset win puts Louisville effectively 1 game better than Miami for the season. Louisville should therefore be ranked higher than Miami. Furthermore, similar to the Syracuse-Miami case, if we rank Louisville ahead of Miami, as they should be, then Miami would have 1 upset win to balance out 1 of their 2 upset losses, and that makes Miami a better top 25 inclusion.

If ranked ahead of Miami, as they should be, then Louisville would have 2 upset losses (Stanford and Miami) and 1 upset win (Clemson). That would give them a better relevant record than that of 11-3 Iowa State, who has 2 upset losses (8-5 Texas Tech and 5-7 Kansas) and no upset wins. The Clemson win renders Louisville effectively 1 game better than Iowa State for the season, and as such, Louisville should be ranked higher than Iowa State. ISU also posted twice as many poor performances (wins by a touchdown or less and losses by more than a touchdown) as Louisville. Louisville should be ranked right behind Southern Methodist, who beat them 34-27.

Iowa State

11-3 Iowa State is sure to be overrated in the final AP poll, and Louisville isn't the only team they will likely have to be dropped behind when I fix the final AP poll next week. As covered above, Iowa State has 2 upset losses to unranked teams (8-5 Texas Tech and 5-7 Kansas), and with no upset wins to balance either of those losses out, Iowa State will have a worse relevant record than a bunch of teams that will be ranked behind them. Iowa State should be ranked right in front of Miami (Florida), whom they defeated 42-41 in their bowl game, and no higher. And a 1-point victory only serves to reinforce this fact that they should be rated barely ahead of Miami.

In addition to Louisville, I expect that I'll be dropping 11-3 Iowa State behind 10-3 Illinois, 8-5 Michigan, 9-4 Alabama, and 9-4 South Carolina, all of whom have better relevant records than ISU has.

Missouri

10-3 Missouri is another team that is not as impressive as their straight record would seem to indicate. They have not beaten a single ranked team, nor a team that is even close to ranked, and they were stomped 41-10 at unranked 8-5 Texas A&M. Frankly, I can't see any reason that they should even be ranked ahead of Texas A&M. Missouri's best win is their 27-24 bowl win over 8-5 Iowa. If the AP poll ranked enough teams, Iowa might be ranked about #50, so it seems to me that Missouri's best win tells us that they are about #40 at best. Their other best wins, by 6 points over 7-6 BC, by 3 points in overtime over 7-6 Vanderbilt, by 7 over 6-7 Oklahoma, and by 7 over 7-6 Arkansas, all home games, all tell us the same thing, that they are at the power level of a #40 team. I'll take a closer look at Mizzou after the final AP poll comes out, but they really do not look like a legit top 25 team at all.

Florida, Louisiana State, and Texas A&M

8-5 Florida, 9-4 Louisiana State, and 8-5 Texas A&M are all teams I expect to be highly underrated, and in fact not rated at all, in the final AP poll's rankings.

8-5 Florida took one upset loss, 33-20 to Texas A&M early in the season. Their other 4 losses all came to ranked teams. They made up for their one upset loss with a 24-17 "upset" win over another ranked team, 10-3 Mississippi. Now, Florida could be viably ranked ahead of Ole Miss, and I'll probably look closely at whether or not they should be when the final AP poll is published. I would be inclined to rank them this way myself. But in any case, with just one upset loss and a win over Ole Miss, Florida definitely deserves to be ranked in the final top 25. That gives them a better relevant record than most or all of the teams that will appear in the #20-25 slots of the final rankings. Florida also owns an impressive 27-16 win over 9-4 LSU, who should also be ranked. And needless to say, that head-to-head win should put Florida ahead of LSU in the rankings.

LSU took 2 upset losses (7-6 Southern Cal and 8-5 Texas A&M), but they balanced out both of those with upset wins over 9-4 South Carolina and 10-3 Mississippi, so like Florida, they have a better relevant record than most or all of the teams that will be ranked in the lower reaches of the final AP poll's top 25. I should note that if 10-3 Mississippi is dropped behind Florida, Ole Miss should remain ranked ahead of 9-4 LSU, as they would have a better relevant record than LSU despite LSU beating them head-to-head. Dropped back behind Florida, Mississippi would have 1 upset loss and 2 upset wins. LSU has 2 upset losses and 1 upset win, plus the head-to-head win over Ole Miss. That would still leave Mississippi effectively one game better than LSU for the season (and their straight record is obviously 1 game better as well).

8-5 Texas A&M defeated both 8-5 Florida and 9-4 LSU, but they should nevertheless remain ranked behind both teams, as they have a worse relevant record than both. A&M also routed 10-3 Missouri 41-10, and they were clearly a top 25 team through the end of October, when they earned all 3 of these big wins, but they fell apart down the stretch, losing 4 of their last 5 games, 2 of those to unranked opponents 5-7 Auburn and 7-6 Southern Cal. That last result came in their bowl game, giving it extra weight, and I would say that LSU has a better relevant record by that extra weight. Frankly, the upset bowl loss and terrible finish leave me highly disinclined to see Texas A&M rated in a top 25, but the fact is that they have a better relevant record than Missouri (as covered above), and better than several teams that will be ranked in the bottom of the AP poll's final top 25. It would be easier to leave A&M out of the top 25 if Missouri were dropped behind them, as they should be. Otherwise, Texas A&M would have 3 big "upset" wins, and I don't see how you leave them out of a top 25 in that case.

Memphis

There are a bunch of teams that will or might be questionable inclusions in the AP poll's final top 25 next week, such as 10-3 Missouri, 10-3 Syracuse, 12-2 Army, 11-3 UNLV, and 10-3 Navy. I'll look more closely at each of them, if necessary, next week. However, there is one potential inclusion that definitely has no business being ranked in a final top 25, and needs no closer look, and that is 11-2 Memphis (as covered previously). Memphis lost to 10-3 Navy, and needs to be ranked behind them. Memphis' other loss came to unranked 7-6 Texas-San Antonio, and one upset loss isn't bad, but the problem is that they just haven't beaten anyone. Their best win came 34-24 over 9-5 Tulane, a team Florida trounced 33-8 in their bowl game. But of course, as covered above, Florida should be ranked. And Memphis should not be. Memphis' other best win came 42-37 over 6-7 West Virginia in their bowl game, a performance that indicates a power level of maybe #50. Their loss to Navy (who will be ranked at or close to the bottom of the final top 25), by 12 points, is similarly the performance of an unranked team.

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