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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: December 8, 2024

1) Oregon 13-0
2) Georgia 11-2
3) Notre Dame 11-1
4) Texas 11-2
5) Penn State 11-2
6) Ohio State 10-2
7) Tennessee 10-2
8) Boise State 12-1
9) Indiana 11-1
10) Arizona State 11-2
11) Alabama 9-3
12) Southern Methodist 11-2
13) Clemson 10-3
14) South Carolina 9-3
15) Miami (Florida) 10-2
16) Mississippi 9-3
17) Brigham Young 10-2
18) Iowa State 10-3
19) Army 11-1
20) Colorado 9-3
21) Illinois 9-3
22) Syracuse 9-3
23) Missouri 9-3
24) UNLV 10-3
25) Memphis 10-2

Others Receiving Votes
Texas A&M 8-4
Louisville 8-4
Duke 9-3
Kansas State 8-4
Marshall 10-3
Louisiana State 8-4
Florida 7-5
Tulane 9-4
Baylor 8-4
Ohio 10-3
Louisiana 10-3

If you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top 25 until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.

For example, I think that 9-3 Illinois is at least a bit overrated at #21, and in fact I wouldn't even rank them at all in my own top 25 (details below). However, Illinois plays #14 South Carolina (9-3) in the Citrus Bowl, so this issue should take care of itself one way or the other: If Illinois wins, then the sports writers will have been proven right, and if they lose, they'll drop anyway, likely out of the top 25.

Obviously, while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late enough in the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more games were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.

Playoff Committee Rankings

I will also add some comments on the playoff committee rankings to the end of this article (below).

Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final post-bowl top 25, I will not be fixing any of their rankings like I will the final AP poll top 25 in January, and for that reason, I will not be fully commenting on the playoff committee's top 25.

Now let's get to commenting on the problems with the latest AP poll...

Notre Dame

As I wrote last week, I think that 11-1 Notre Dame is a bit overrated at #3. Their loss, to Northern Illinois, is the worst loss taken by any top 10 team, and the highest ranked team they have beaten is only at #19 (Army). That's just not very impressive, and I'd drop the Irish back to at least #6. Ohio State, as an example, has beaten 2 top 10 teams, which is vastly more impressive than anything Notre Dame has done. And speaking of Ohio State...

Ohio State > Penn State

This is another issue I covered last week, but this week it is even more obvious. #6 Ohio State beat #5 Penn State 20-13 on the road, and both teams have 2 losses, so why in the world is OSU ranked 1 spot behind PSU? This is simply senseless. Maybe the writers were just impressed by Penn State "only" losing by 8 to #1 Oregon in Indianapolis this week. But Ohio State lost by only 1 point to #1 Oregon in Eugene. Ohio State beat #9 Indiana by 23, while PSU's best win came by 14 over #21 Illinois. Ohio State posted just 1 close win over an unrated opponent, PSU 3. This is not even close, and frankly, anyone ranking Penn State higher than Ohio State should not even be allowed to vote.

South Carolina > Clemson > Southern Methodist

9-3 South Carolina (#14) won 17-14 at 10-3 Clemson (#13) in their regular season finale, and Clemson won 34-31 over 11-2 Southern Methodist (#12) in the ACC Championship Game, and of course that is the order in which these 3 teams should be ranked, but unfortunately, the AP voters put them in the opposite order. These games just happened, so there is really no good excuse for this.

SMU has 2 losses because they played just 2 rated teams (losing to both), while Clemson played 3 and South Carolina played 4. And SC played 8 teams that I would rank in my own top 25.

Brigham Young > Southern Methodist

Another head-to-head outcome the AP poll ignored. I don't think sports writers really care much at all who wins these games and who loses them. 10-2 Brigham Young (#17) won 18-15 at 11-2 Southern Methodist (#12), and now that Arizona State (who edged BYU at home) is ranked higher than SMU, there is no good reason to ignore it. Furthermore, ASU seems overrated (covered next), but if BYU is moved up, ASU's high rating makes more sense.

Arizona State

To reiterate, 11-2 Arizona State seems rather overrated at #10. Their losses, both upsets to teams that are not close to ranked (Texas Tech and Cincinnati), are very ugly. Their wins, aside from the one big one over 10-2 BYU, are unimpressive (I don't think that Iowa State should be ranked at all, as covered below), largely because the Big 12 is the worst of the major conferences (as I covered in detail last week). I think ASU should be dropped back behind #13 Clemson, who posted just 1 upset loss.

Texas A&M > Florida > Mississippi

Another issue I covered last week. As I wrote there: The one big problem AP poll voters have is placing far too much emphasis on straight records, with little regard for strength of schedule faced. We see this problem behind practically every issue covered above and each one covered below, and it is the the only reason the voters were unable to get this simple victory chain correct. #16 Mississippi may be 9-3, #26 (Others Receiving Votes) Texas A&M 8-4, and #32 Florida 7-5, leading directly to where each is ranked by the AP poll, but these teams played very different schedules, so those records are highly misleading. What is not misleading is the inescapable fact that Texas A&M won 33-20 at Florida, and Florida won 24-17 over Mississippi, and THAT is the order in which these teams should be ranked.

Texas A&M and Florida have more losses because A&M played 4 ranked teams, Florida played 5, and Mississippi played just 2. Four of the teams Florida lost to are already ranked higher than Mississippi by the AP poll, and if you put Texas A&M ahead of them, where they belong, then all 5 of Florida's losses will have come to teams ranked higher than Ole Miss.

Texas A&M > Missouri

This shouldn't have to be said, but 8-4 Texas A&M (#26) should also be ranked higher than 9-3 Missouri (#23), as they stomped on Missouri 41-10. Like Mississippi, Missouri played just 2 ranked teams, and they beat none. A&M, again, played 4. There is simply no logical reason for Missouri to be ranked ahead of A&M.

Of course, if Texas A&M loses to Southern Cal in the Las Vegas Bowl, then the sports writers will have been proven right not to rank them.

Miami (Florida)

As this top 25 stands now, 10-2 Miami (Florida) is highly overrated at #15. Both of their losses came to lower-rated teams, and they have not beaten a ranked opponent. However, a couple of changes that I recommend below would strengthen Miami's case quite a bit. 8-4 Louisville and 7-5 Florida both sit in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll, and I think that both of them should be rated in the top 25, and pretty highly (details below). Since Miami defeated both teams, if those teams were rated, Miami's #15 rating would make more sense. Because Louisville has an upset win over #13 Clemson, you could even logically rate them higher than Miami, giving Miami an upset win, which would balance out one of Miami's 2 upset losses.

Iowa State and Colorado

As previously noted, I think that the Big 12 was the weakest major conference this year, and as I said last week, neither Iowa State nor Colorado should be ranked in a top 25. 10-3 Iowa State is ridiculous as a #18 team. They took 2 loses to unrated teams, one of them by more than a touchdown to a losing team, and they did not beat a ranked opponent. They were embarrassed on Saturday 45-19 by #10 Arizona State (also overrated, as covered above), but somehow only fell 2 spots. How does that make sense?

But by far the worst rating in this top 25 is 9-3 Colorado at #20. Colorado took ALL THREE of their losses to unrated opponents, one of those by 16 points to a losing team, and they too did not beat a ranked opponent. Colorado has been consistently overrated all season.

These teams will get their chance to show something in their bowl games, as ISU faces #15 Miami and Colorado takes on #17 BYU. However, with 3 upset losses, even beating BYU -- one good win -- would not be enough for Colorado to merit a legitimate spot in the top 25. They should be unranked whether they win or lose that game.

Illinois

Also covered last week, I think that 9-3 Illinois is a bit overrated at #21. Compare them to 9-3 Missouri, who sits 2 rungs behind them at #23. Illinois took an upset loss to 7-5 Minnesota, who is not even close to ranked. Missouri took an upset loss to 8-4 Texas A&M, who is #26 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll, and who should be rated ahead of Missouri (as covered above), so it's not even really an upset loss at all. Neither team beat a rated opponent, but Illinois defeated 3 bowl qualifiers, Missouri 4. Looks to me like Missouri should have the edge here.

Of course, as I noted at the outset of this article, this issue should be settled one way or another after the bowls, as Illinois is set to face #14 South Carolina in the Citrus Bowl. If Illinois wins, then the sports writers will have been proven right, and if they lose, they will likely drop out of the top 25 anyway.

Louisville > Boston College > Syracuse > UNLV

Largely covered last week, here is another victory chain where the teams are ranked by straight record and not by the victory chain. 8-4 Louisville (#27 in Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll) won 31-27 at 7-5 Boston College (no AP poll points at all), who won 37-31 over 9-3 Syracuse (#22), who won 44-41 in overtime at 10-3 UNLV (#24), and that is the order in which I think these teams should be ranked.

8-4 Louisville is definitely underrated, and as I noted previously in this article, they could even be viably ranked higher than #15 Miami. Miami beat Louisville, but Louisville suffered just 1 upset loss, Miami 2. Since Louisville defeated a higher-ranked team than Miami (Clemson), their relevant record is effectively one game better than that of Miami for the season. But the real point here is that with just one upset loss to an unrated opponent and a big win over #13 Clemson, Louisville is far more deserving of a top 25 slot than the likes of Iowa State and Colorado, as just 2 examples. Of course, if Louisville loses to Washington in their bowl game, then the AP poll voters will have been proven right not to rank them.

7-5 Boston College took 2 ugly losses to unranked teams (Virginia and Virginia Tech), but so did 9-3 Syracuse (Stanford and Pittsburgh). Syracuse posted a great win over a higher-ranked team (#15 Miami-Florida) in their finale, but that just balances out BC's head-to-head win over Syracuse. The teams have the same relevant record, with the head-to-head tiebreaker favoring BC. Note that since BC lost at #23 Missouri, BC and Syracuse should both be rated behind Mizzou. And needless to say, if BC somehow loses to Nebraska in the Pinstripe Bowl, then the voters will have been proven right not to rank them.

And now that UNLV has dropped back behind Syracuse, I needn't discuss the fact that that is where they belong. On the other hand, if Syracuse loses to Washington State in the Holiday Bowl, then UNLV probably belongs ranked ahead of them. But UNLV will have to take care of business against Cal in their own bowl game.

Memphis

As I said last week, Colorado keeps Memphis from being the worst rating in this AP poll top 25. 10-2 Memphis, of the AAC conference, which cannot be stressed enough, at #25? A bad joke. They took losses to Navy and Texas-San Antonio, neither of whom is even close to ranked, and it need hardly be said that they did not beat a rated team. Memphis is not a legitimate top 25 inclusion, and beating 6-6 West Virginia in their bowl game would do nothing at all to change that fact.

Louisiana State, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt

So, as I've previously noted, I would definitely toss Iowa State, Colorado, and Memphis out of this top 25. And I would consider tossing out Illinois and UNLV. Who would I replace them with? Well, I've already indicated that Louisville, Texas A&M, Florida, and Boston College should be rated ahead of teams that are currently ranked in the AP poll. Other teams that might merit a top 25 slot are led by 8-4 Louisiana State, but let's not ignore 6-6 Oklahoma and 6-6 Vanderbilt. The SEC is the best conference in the country (55-9 against nonconference opponents), and if you look closely at LSU, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt, they compare well to other teams in the bottom of the AP poll.

Echoing what I wrote when I covered these 3 teams last week:

8-4 LSU (#30 Others Receiving Votes) looks particularly strong as a top 25 inclusion. They took an upset loss to unrated Southern Cal in their opener, and they have a loss to 8-4 Texas A&M, who is #26, but as already covered, the Aggies ought to be ranked. They also lost to 7-5 Florida, but again, as already covered, Florida ought to be ranked too. And LSU has huge wins over #13 South Carolina (9-3) and #15 Mississippi (9-3), as well as decent wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. Speaking of which...

6-6 Oklahoma took 5 losses to teams that are currently ranked in the AP poll, and their 6th loss came to the aforementioned 8-4 LSU, who obviously ought to be ranked. Oklahoma also has a huge win, over #11 Alabama (9-3). They added a 15 point win over 9-4 Tulane (#33), and there is no doubt that they should at least be ranked ahead of them.

6-6 Vanderbilt is a dicier case, as they took a very ugly loss at Georgia State. But they did balance that out with a huge win of their own, over #11 Alabama (9-3).

If I were ranking these teams, I'd be thinking LSU around #17, Oklahoma #19 (behind Missouri, who beat them), and Vanderbilt #23. But these 3 teams are all playing unranked opponents in their bowl games, so obviously they need to win those games to be considered for a top 25 slot.

Duke, Kansas State, and Marshall

Here are a trio of teams that are hanging out in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll and who are hoping to win their bowl games and sneak into the final top 25, but as of now they merit no such consideration. I covered the first 2 of these teams last week.

9-3 Duke (#28) has a great-looking straight record, but they only played 2 rated teams, losing to both and to unrated Georgia Tech (7-5) 24-14. They have not beaten a major conference team with a winning record, and they should definitely not be rated ahead of even Georgia Tech. However, they get #16 Mississippi (9-3) in the Gator Bowl, and a win there would merit them a spot in the top 25 (though in that case Georgia Tech should still be ranked ahead of them, going with them into the top 25).

8-4 Kansas State (#29) did beat #20 Colorado, and they should definitely be rated ahead of Colorado, but that isn't saying much, as neither team should be ranked in the top 25 (Colorado discussed above). KSU lost to #18 Iowa State, and they should remain ranked behind ISU, but as I also discussed above, Iowa State does not belong in a top 25 either. KSU took an ugly upset loss to 4-8 Houston, and beating 7-5 Rutgers in their bowl game will do nothing to change the fact that KSU does not belong in a top 25, and they are already overrated at #29.

10-3 Marshall (#30) has taken a pair of losses to unranked opponents. One of those came 31-14 to 6-6 Virginia Tech, and Marshall doesn't even belong ranked ahead of the Hokies. Marshall doesn't have a win of any real value. They can get one by knocking off #19 Army (11-1) in the Independence Bowl, but even that shouldn't get Marshall into the top 25. They would still belong rated behind Virginia Tech. It would just mean that Army, who hasn't beaten anyone of value, doesn't belong in the top 25.

Comments on the College Football Playoff Rankings

As I noted last week, sadly the differences between the AP poll's top 25 and the College Football Playoff top 25 are extremely minor, and the CFP rankings don't correctly address most of the substantive issues I bring up in this article. Like AP poll voters, the CFP folk mostly and mindlessly adhere to straight records with very little regard for strength of schedule. That is very disappointing.

I understand the AP poll making these mistakes, because the sportswriters don't have much time to rank teams after the Saturday games, and they have always ranked teams based mostly on feelings and straight record and when losses happened. And really, their ranking is just for fun anyway. Nothing is really at stake. The CFP rankings, however, matter a great deal, and more time goes into it, and supposedly more thought goes into it as well, and so this type of basic lack of logic is, in my opinion, inexcusable. I don't think that anyone who makes such a judgment as putting Colorado in their top 25 (9-3 while playing ZERO ranked opponents, by their own ranking!) should have anything to do with selecting which teams go to playoffs and which don't. And ranking Penn State ahead of Ohio State? Completely illogical, as covered above.

Anyway, as to which ranking did better, well I would say that there are 10 mostly minor differences between the 2 systems, and I would say that the CFP voters made the better choice in 6 of them. So the edge goes to the CFP committee. The one issue I bring up in this article that the CFP committee got right was placing 9-3 South Carolina ahead of 9-3 Clemson (SC having beaten Clemson in their regular season finale).

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