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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: December 1, 2024

1) Oregon 12-0
2) Texas 11-1
3) Penn State 11-1
4) Notre Dame 11-1
5) Georgia 10-2
6) Tennessee 10-2
7) Ohio State 10-2
8) Southern Methodist 11-1
9) Indiana 11-1
10) Boise State 11-1
11) Alabama 9-3
12) Arizona State 10-2
13) South Carolina 9-3
14) Miami (Florida) 10-2
15) Mississippi 9-3
16) Iowa State 10-2
17) Brigham Young 10-2
18) Clemson 9-3
19) UNLV 10-2
20) Colorado 9-3
21) Illinois 9-3
22) Missouri 9-3
23) Syracuse 9-3
24) Army 10-1
25) Memphis 10-2

Others Receiving Votes
Texas A&M 8-4
Louisville 8-4
Duke 9-3
Kansas State 8-4
Tulane 9-3
Louisiana State 8-4
Louisiana 10-2
Florida 7-5
Baylor 8-4
Michigan 7-5

If you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top 25 until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.

For example, I would rate 10-2 Georgia (#5) higher than 11-1 Texas (#2) due to the fact that Georgia beat Texas handily on the road, 30-15, and Georgia has played a far tougher schedule than Texas has. Georgia may have 2 losses, but those losses came to teams ranked #11 and #15 in the AP poll, and Texas has not themselves defeated any team ranked that highly. In fact, Texas has not beaten any team ranked in the AP poll at all! The only ranked team Texas has played is Georgia, who beat them by 15 points. Georgia has played 5 ranked teams! However, these 2 teams are playing each other next Saturday in the SEC Championship Game, so this issue will take care of itself one way or the other: If Texas wins, then the sports writers will have been proven right, and if Georgia wins, they'll move up past Texas anyway.

Obviously, while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late enough in the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more games were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.

Playoff Committee Rankings

UPDATED -- Comments on the 12-3-24 College Football Playoff rankings are now posted at the bottom of this article!

I will also add some comments on the playoff committee rankings to this article after that top 25 comes out on Tuesday, but only if there is anything in those rankings to address that is different than the issues with the AP poll that I am already addressing below.

Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final post-bowl top 25, I will not be fixing any of their rankings like I will the final AP poll top 25 in January, and for that reason, I will not be fully commenting on the playoff committee's top 25s.

Now let's get to commenting on the problems with the latest AP poll...

Georgia and Texas

10-2 Georgia (#5) beat 11-1 Texas (#2) 30-15 on the road, a decisive outcome, but Texas is rated higher in the AP poll because they have 1 loss and Georgia has 2. This may be logically viable, as both of Georgia's losses are upset losses to lower-ranked teams. However, as I indicated above, those losses came to teams ranked #11 and #15, and Texas has not themselves defeated any team ranked that highly, and in fact Texas has not beaten any team ranked in the AP poll at all. The only ranked team Texas has played is Georgia, who beat them by 2 touchdowns, while Georgia has played 5 ranked teams. For that reason, I would definitely rate Georgia higher than Texas myself.

But as I also wrote previously, these 2 teams are playing each other next Saturday in the SEC Championship Game, so this issue will take care of itself one way or the other: If Texas wins, then the sports writers will have been proven right, and if Georgia wins, then the Dawgs will move up past Texas anyway.

Ohio State > Penn State

This is a similar case, as 10-2 Ohio State (#7) beat 11-1 Penn State (#3) 20-13 on the road. But it is even clearer because Ohio State only took 1 upset loss (to rival Michigan of course). Their other loss came by just 1 point at #1 Oregon, and should be irrelevant when comparing Ohio State to Penn State (for now anyway). Ohio State and Penn State thus have the same relevant record, and the head-to-head tie-breaker should therefore put Ohio State ahead of Penn State in a fair ranking.

But this issue should also take care of itself on Saturday, as Penn State is facing Oregon in the Big 10 Championship Game. If PSU wins, then the sports writers will have been proven right, and if they lose, then the Lions will likely drop back behind the Buckeyes anyway.

Notre Dame

I think 11-1 Notre Dame is a bit overrated at #4. Their loss, to Northern Illinois, is the worst loss taken by any top 10 team, and the highest ranked team they have beaten is only at #24 (Army). That's just not very impressive, and I'd drop the Irish back to at least #7. Ohio State, as an example, has beaten 2 top 10 teams, which is vastly more impressive than anything Notre Dame has done.

Alabama and South Carolina

I think that #11 Alabama and #13 South Carolina, both 9-3, are a bit underrated. The SEC is the toughest conference (55-9 mark against nonconference opponents easily the best), and these 2 teams have played monstrously difficult schedules. Alabama has beaten 3 ranked teams, more than anyone ranked above them has beaten except for Oregon and Georgia, and while South Carolina has "only" beaten 2, they have beaten 5 teams that I would rank in a top 25 (more on this in article below). 11-1 Southern Methodist, ranked #8, hasn't beaten any ranked teams, and I would certainly rate both Alabama and South Carolina ahead of SMU.

Entire Big 12 Overrated

Now we go from discussing the best major conference to discussing the worst. And with Texas and Oklahoma now departed, calling the Big 12 a "major" conference is pushing it. They look more like a merger of the bottom half of a major conference with the top half of a minor conference. Which is pretty much exactly what they are. As the subheading above states, the entire Big 12 is overrated, and I would not put any of these teams into a top 25 myself.

The Big 12 did post a better record against nonconference opponents than the ACC did (33-11 to 47-21), but the ACC played far tougher nonconference opponents than the Big 12 did. The ACC played 14 AP-rated nonconference opponents, the Big 12 just 6, and the ACC played 27 major opponents, the Big 12 just 14. The ACC posted a better record than the Big 12 did against major opponents (.370 to .357) and against unrated opponents (.868 to .842). And head-to-head, the ACC went 3-2 against the Big 12. So while these 2 conferences are close, I'd give the Big 12 the nod for weakest of the 4 major conferences.

The AP poll put 4 Big 12 teams into their top 25, and 2 more just outside it, so they obviously disagree quite a bit with me. Let's discuss the 4 rated teams...

Brigham Young > Arizona State

Before discussing the merits of these 2 teams as top 25 inclusions, I'd like to advocate for 10-2 Brigham Young (#17) being rated higher than 10-2 Arizona State (#12). ASU did beat BYU 28-23, but it was a close home win, not decisive, and BYU owns an upset win over 11-1 SMU (#8). That win gives BYU a relevant record that puts them effectively a game better than ASU for the season as a whole. BYU is also rated behind 10-2 Iowa State (#16), which is ridiculous, as BYU has a relevant record that is effectively 2 games better than that of Iowa State. BYU took one loss to a higher-rated team (ASU), while ISU took both of their losses to unrated teams, and BYU has beaten a higher-rated team, while ISU has not beaten any rated team at all.

The Big 12 Championship Game between ASU and ISU will do little to sort this situation out, as the winner of this game will still have a worse relevant record than BYU has. Perhaps one could argue that if ASU wins, their strong finish over 6 straight games will merit rating them higher than BYU.

As I said earlier, I would not put any Big 12 team in my top 25, but BYU may have some argument for a low ranking based on the fact that they gave 11-1 Southern Methodist (#8) their only loss. And if BYU is ranked, then perhaps Arizona State could be ranked near the bottom as well, based on beating BYU and posting a strong finish (so far). But ASU's losses, both coming to teams that are not close to ranked, are pretty ugly. ASU is certainly WAY overrated at #12. If BYU and ASU are to be ranked, I would think that somewhere in the 20s is more appropriate for both.

Iowa State

10-2 Iowa State is vastly overrated at #16, and should not be rated at all. Like Arizona State, they took both of their losses to teams that are not even close to ranked, and unlike ASU, they have not beaten a rated opponent. Even if ISU beats ASU in the Big 12 Championship Game on Saturday, I still don't think they'll fairly merit a top 25 spot. That would just mean that ASU shouldn't be ranked.

Colorado

Now we get to the most overrated team in this AP poll, and the most consistently overrated team all season, 9-3 Colorado (#20). Colorado has taken all 3 of their losses to unrated teams, two of them posting records of 6-6 and 5-7, and both of those losses came by more than a touchdown. And like Iowa State, they have not beaten a rated opponent. But unlike Iowa State, Colorado lost to Kansas State (8-4, #29 in Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll), and as such Colorado really shouldn't even be ranked ahead of KSU. But they definitely, absolutely should not be ranked at all, and anyone putting them in a top 25 should not be allowed to vote anymore.

Texas A&M > Florida > Mississippi

The one big problem AP poll voters have is placing far too much emphasis on straight records, with little regard for strength of schedule faced. We see this problem behind practically every issue covered above and each one covered below, and it is the the only reason the voters were unable to get this simple victory chain correct. #15 Mississippi may be 9-3, #26 (Others Receiving Votes) Texas A&M 8-4, and #33 Florida 7-5, leading directly to where each is ranked by the AP poll, but these teams played very different schedules, so those records are highly misleading. What is not misleading is the inescapable fact that Texas A&M won 33-20 at Florida, and Florida won 24-17 over Mississippi less than 2 weeks ago, and THAT is the order in which these teams should be ranked.

Texas A&M and Florida have more losses because A&M played 4 ranked teams, Florida played 5, and Mississippi played just 2. Four of the teams Florida lost to are already ranked higher than Mississippi by the AP poll, and if you put Texas A&M ahead of them, where they belong, then all 5 of Florida's losses will have come to teams ranked higher than Ole Miss.

It need hardly be said that 8-4 Texas A&M (#26) should also be ranked higher than 9-3 Missouri (#22), as they stomped on Missouri 41-10. Like Mississippi, Missouri played just 2 ranked teams, and they beat none. A&M, again, played 4. There is simply no logical reason for Missouri to be ranked ahead of A&M.

Louisville > Clemson

And here we go again. Clemson is ranked #18 because they are 9-3, and Louisville is ranked #27 (Others Receiving Votes) because they are 8-4, but the fact is that Louisville beat Clemson 33-21 on the road, and Louisville played 4 ranked opponents, Clemson just 2, so there is simply no doubt that Louisville should be ranked higher than Clemson. And on top of the disparity in ranked opponents, Louisville beat 4 unrated teams with winning records, Clemson just 1.

Of course, if Clemson defeats #8 Southern Methodist in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday, then they will have earned a higher rating. Unfortunately, if they lose, it is unlikely that they will fall far enough to drop back behind Louisville, where they would certainly belong.

Boston College > Syracuse > UNLV

Here is another victory chain where the teams are ranked by straight record and not by the victory chain, though this one is not as clear as Texas A&M > Florida > Mississippi. 7-5 Boston College (no AP poll points at all) won 37-31 over 9-3 Syracuse (#23), who won 44-41 in overtime at 10-2 UNLV (#19), and that is the order in which I think these teams should be ranked. The schedule disparity is not as clear here, as BC played 3 ranked opponents, Syracuse 2, and UNLV 2. However, BC also played and lost to Louisville (8-4, #27), and as previously covered, Louisville should be ranked, and they should be ranked ahead of Clemson and ahead of all three of the teams discussed here. BC took 2 losses to legitimately unranked teams (Virginia and Virginia Tech), but so did Syracuse (Stanford and Pittsburgh). Syracuse posted a great win over a higher-ranked team (#14 Miami-Florida) in their finale, but that just balances out BC's head-to-head win. The teams have the same relevant record, with the head-to-head tiebreaker favoring BC.

Because Syracuse has 2 losses to unranked teams, UNLV does actually have a better relevant record than that of Syracuse, and due to that there is some merit to ranking UNLV higher. However, the fact is that UNLV played in the Mountain West, and Syracuse played in the ACC. Those upset losses Syracuse took at least came to major conference teams. We'll never know if UNLV would have fared as well as Syracuse did against a schedule of 8 major conference opponents, but we do know that Syracuse beat UNLV on the road, and that Syracuse beat another rated team as well (#14 Miami-Florida), and UNLV did not beat a team that finished ranked or even close to ranked. I see no good reason to ignore the head-to-head result here.

And frankly, even if UNLV beats #10 Boise State in the MWC Championship Game on Saturday, I'm not sure that would give a good reason to rank UNLV higher than Syracuse. Boise State hasn't beaten a rated team except UNLV, so all it would show to me is that Boise should be dropped all the way down to the bottom of the list, behind Syracuse as well.

Illinois

I think 9-3 Illinois is a bit overrated at #21. Compare them to 9-3 Missouri, who sits right behind them at #22. Illinois took an upset loss to 7-5 Minnesota, who is not even close to ranked. Missouri took an upset loss to 8-4 Texas A&M, who is #26 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll, and who should be rated ahead of Missouri (as covered above), so it's not even really an upset loss at all. Neither team beat a rated opponent, but Illinois defeated 3 bowl qualifiers, Missouri 4. Looks to me like Missouri should have the edge here.

Memphis

Colorado keeps Memphis from being the worst rating in this AP poll top 25. 10-2 Memphis, of the AAC conference, which cannot be stressed enough, at #25? Ridiculous. They took losses to Navy and Texas-San Antonio, neither of whom is even close to ranked, and it need hardly be said that they did not beat a rated team. Memphis is not a legit top 25 inclusion.

Louisiana State, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt

So, as I've previously noted, I would definitely toss Iowa State, Colorado, and Memphis out of this top 25. And I would consider tossing out Arizona State, BYU, and Illinois. Who would I replace them with? Well, I've already indicated that Louisville, Texas A&M, Florida, and Boston College should be rated ahead of teams that are currently ranked in the AP poll. Other teams that might merit a top 25 slot are led by 8-4 Louisiana State, but let's not ignore 6-6 Oklahoma and 6-6 Vanderbilt. I already mentioned that the SEC is the best conference thus far, and if you look closely at LSU, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt, they compare well to other teams in the bottom of the AP poll.

8-4 LSU (#31 Others Receiving Votes) looks particularly strong as a top 25 inclusion. They took an upset loss to unrated Southern Cal in their opener, and they have a loss to 8-4 Texas A&M, who is #26, but as already covered, the Aggies ought to be ranked. They also lost to 7-5 Florida, but again, as already covered, Florida ought to be ranked. And LSU has huge wins over #13 South Carolina (9-3) and #15 Mississippi (9-3), as well as decent wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. Speaking of which...

6-6 Oklahoma took 5 losses to teams that are currently ranked in the AP poll, and their 6th loss came to the aforementioned 8-4 LSU, who obviously ought to be ranked. Oklahoma also has a huge win, over #11 Alabama (9-3). They added a 15 point win over 9-3 Tulane (#30), and there is no doubt that they should at least be ranked ahead of them.

6-6 Vanderbilt is a dicier case, as they took a very ugly loss at Georgia State. But they did balance that out with a huge win of their own, over #11 Alabama (9-3).

Others Receiving Votes That Deserve Few or None

Here are some teams that are hanging out in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll who are hoping to win their bowl games and sneak into the final top 25, but unless they beat a highly-ranked team in their bowl game, I don't think any of these teams merit inclusion in a top 25, or even being as close as they are now.

9-3 Duke (#28) has a great-looking straight record, but they only played 2 rated teams, losing to both and to unrated Georgia Tech (7-5) 24-14. They have not beaten a major conference team with a winning record, and they should definitely not be rated ahead of even Georgia Tech.

8-4 Kansas State (#29) did beat #20 Colorado, and they should definitely be rated ahead of Colorado, but that isn't saying much, as neither team should be ranked in the top 25 (Colorado discussed above). KSU lost to #16 Iowa State, and they should remain ranked behind ISU, but as I also discussed above, Iowa State does not belong in a top 25 either. KSU had a nice win over 9-3 Tulane (discussed next), and should remain ahead of them, but again, that should happen outside a decent top 25. KSU took an ugly upset loss to 4-8 Houston.

9-3 Tulane (#30) was overrated the entire second half of the season, before Memphis beat them, knocked them out, and took their place. Memphis shouldn't be ranked, and neither should Tulane. Tulane's other 2 losses came to KSU (discussed previously) and to 6-6 Oklahoma, and they should not even be ranked higher than Oklahoma.

10-2 Louisiana (#32) is a Sun Belt team, and unfortunately there isn't much more to say than that. They lost to Tulane and to South Alabama, and they defeated no one of any value at all. I guess their big win came by 3 points over 4-8 Wake Forest?

8-4 Baylor (#34) gives us a 6th Big 12 team to discuss, which is remarkable given how poor the conference was this year (as covered above). Baylor lost to all 3 of the rated teams they played (at least 2 of whom should not be rated at all), and they also lost to 5-7 Utah, and they have not beaten a rated or near-rated team.

Comments on the College Football Playoff Rankings 12-3-24

Unfortunately, the differences between the AP poll's top 25 and the College Football Playoff top 25 are extremely minor, and the CFP rankings don't correctly address any of the substantive issues I bring up in this article. Like AP poll voters, the CFP folk mostly and mindlessly adhere to straight records with very little regard for strength of schedule. That is very disappointing.

I understand the AP poll making these mistakes, because the sportswriters don't have much time to rank teams after the Saturday games, and they have always ranked teams based mostly on feelings and straight record and when losses happened. And really, their ranking is just for fun anyway. Nothing is really at stake. The CFP rankings, however, matter a great deal, and more time goes into it, and supposedly more thought goes into it as well, and so this type of basic lack of logic is, in my opinion, inexcusable. I don't think that anyone who makes such a judgment as putting Colorado in their top 25 (9-3 while playing ZERO ranked opponents, by their own ranking!) should have anything to do with selecting which teams go to playoffs and which don't.

Anyway, as to which ranking did better, well I would say that there are 6 very minor differences between the 2 systems, and I would say that the CFP voters made the better choice in 5 of them. But again, these were all very minor differences.

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