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Ranking the Top 25 Teams for the 2023 Season

January 2, 2024

AP poll voters' top 25 ballots will be due right after the National Championship game between #1 Michigan and #2 Washington, but hopefully they have already started working on their final rankings. With a week to go before the final game, AP voters have plenty of time to look carefully at all the relevant teams and to put together a solid final top 25. To help in that regard, I offer some advice on how certain teams should be ranked (below), but first let's look at the final regular-season AP poll, along with the teams' subsequent bowl results thus far:

1) Michigan 14-0	Defeated #5 Alabama 27-20 in OT
2) Washington 13-0	Defeated #3 Texas 37-31
3) Texas 12-2	Lost to #2 Washington 37-31
4) Florida State 13-1	Lost to #6 Georgia 63-3
5) Alabama 12-2	Lost to #1 Michigan 27-20 in OT
6) Georgia 13-1	Defeated #4 Florida State 63-3
7) Ohio State 11-2	Lost to #9 Missouri 14-3
8) Oregon 12-2	Defeated #18 Liberty 45-6
9) Missouri 11-2	Defeated #7 Ohio State 14-3
10) Penn State 10-3	Lost to #11 Mississippi 38-25
11) Mississippi 11-2	Defeated #10 Penn State 38-25
12) Oklahoma 10-3	Lost to #14 Arizona 38-24
13) Louisiana State 10-3	Defeated 7-6 Wisconsin 35-31
14) Arizona 10-3	Defeated #12 Oklahoma 38-24
15) Notre Dame 10-3	Defeated #21 Oregon State 40-8
16) Louisville 10-4	Lost to 8-5 Southern Cal 42-28
17) Southern Methodist 11-3	Lost to 7-6 Boston College 23-14
18) Liberty 13-1	Lost to #8 Oregon 45-6
19) North Carolina State 9-4	Lost to 9-4 Kansas State 28-19
20) Iowa 10-4	Lost to #25 Tennessee 35-0
21) Oregon State 8-5	Lost to #15 Notre Dame 40-8
22) Oklahoma State 10-4	Defeated 7-6 Texas A&M 31-23
23) Tulane 11-3	Lost to 7-6 Virginia Tech 41-20
24) James Madison 11-2	Lost to 9-4 Air Force 31-21
25) Tennessee 9-4	Defeated #20 Iowa 35-0

Others Receiving Votes (in order from most poll points to least)

Clemson 9-4	Defeated 7-6 Kentucky 38-35
Troy 11-3	Lost to 8-5 Duke 17-10
Utah 8-5	Lost to 8-5 Northwestern 14-7
Kansas State 9-4	Defeated #19 NC State 28-19
Miami (Ohio) 11-3	Lost to 9-5 Appalachian State 13-9
Toledo 11-3	Lost to 9-4 Wyoming 16-15
Kansas 9-4	Defeated 9-5 UNLV 49-36
Kentucky 7-6	Lost to 9-4 Clemson 38-35

Texas > Alabama > Georgia

Sometimes AP poll voters drop playoff losers behind teams that win lower-level bowl games, so I would not be surprised to see 12-2 Texas and 12-2 Alabama fall behind 13-1 Georgia in the final poll. Needless to say, such a move would be wrong. Texas defeated Alabama, who defeated Georgia in the SEC title game, and that is the order in which these teams should be ranked. Texas and Alabama both lost razor-close games to the top 2 teams in the country, and Georgia's 63-3 bowl "win" was a joke that came against a team that had 29 players opting out. Hopefully the sports writers show some sense here.

Mississippi > Louisiana State > Missouri

This is an issue that I have been writing about for weeks. 10-3 Louisiana State defeated 11-2 Missouri by 10 points on the road, and they should therefore be ranked higher than Missouri. Since 11-2 Ole Miss defeated LSU, we have this simple victory chain: 11-2 Mississippi > 10-3 LSU > 11-2 Missouri. LSU has taken no upset losses, and they have performed better than Missouri has as well, posting 2 close wins (touchdown or less) to Missouri's 4. Having said all that, I think there is a case for Missouri to be ranked higher than Mississippi and LSU, if 11-2 Ohio State (whom Missouri defeated in the Cotton Bowl) is also ranked ahead of both Mississippi and LSU.

Louisiana State > Arizona and Notre Dame

As noted above, 10-3 Louisiana State has taken no upset losses to lower-ranked teams, and they own a win over top 10 Missouri, while 10-3 Arizona and 10-3 Notre Dame have each taken two upset losses, so there is simply no question at all that LSU should remain ranked higher than Arizona and Notre Dame.

Penn State > Arizona and Notre Dame

10-3 Penn State has taken no upset losses to lower-ranked teams, while, again, 10-3 Arizona and 10-3 Notre Dame have each taken 2 upset losses, so PSU has a relevant record that is effectively 2 games better than that of Arizona and Notre Dame. PSU should therefore be ranked higher than both teams.

Oklahoma > Notre Dame

10-3 Oklahoma and 10-3 Notre Dame have each taken two upset losses to lower-ranked teams, but Oklahoma made up for one of theirs with a huge upset win over 12-2 Texas, who will finish ranked in the top 5. That win gives Oklahoma a relevant record that is effectively one game better than that of Notre Dame, and Oklahoma should therefore be rated higher than Notre Dame.

Oregon State > Utah > Southern Cal > Louisville

I've been complaining about 10-4 Louisville's rating for weeks, and I am sure that the final AP poll will give me more to complain about where Louisville is concerned. 10-4 Louisville lost by 2 touchdowns to 8-5 Southern Cal in the Holiday Bowl, and I think that they should therefore be rated behind USC. Moreover, since 8-5 Oregon State topped 8-5 Utah 21-7, and Utah beat USC on the road 34-32, we have this victory chain: 8-5 Oregon State > 8-5 Utah > 8-5 USC > 10-4 Louisville.

But as I've been saying all along, I don't even think Louisville should be rated ahead of 7-6 Kentucky, who beat them in their regular season finale.

North Carolina State > Clemson

9-4 North Carolina State defeated 9-4 Clemson 24-17 this season, and they should therefore remain ranked higher than Clemson.

Kansas > North Carolina State and Clemson

9-4 Kansas has taken one upset loss (to 7-6 Texas Tech), but they made up for it with a big upset win over 10-3 Oklahoma, who will be rated higher than both 9-4 North Carolina State and 9-4 Clemson. That will give Kansas a better relevant record than either NC State or Clemson will have, and I think Kansas should therefore be ranked higher than both teams.

Southern Methodist

I've been saying for weeks that 11-3 Southern Methodist should not be ranked, and now they have lost their bowl game by more than a touchdown to 7-6 Boston College! SMU should be ranked behind Boston College, which is to say, nowhere near the top 25. And as I've been saying all along, they should even be ranked behind 5-7 Texas Christian, who beat them 34-17. Unfortunately, SMU was bafflingly rated #17 in the last regular season AP poll, and usually a team ranked that highly does not fall out of the rankings after a loss. Here's hoping the voters come to their senses, because this issue could not be clearer, and in fact, anyone who puts SMU in their top 25 should not be allowed to vote at all.

James Madison

11-2 James Madison had been ranked #24, and they lost their bowl game to unranked 9-4 Air Force, so there is almost no chance that James Madison will finish ranked. But they are 11-2, and some writers may find themselves mesmerized by that shiny-looking record. So let's be clear here: JM defeated no team that will be rated or close to rated, and they lost to 2 unrated teams, and JM should therefore not even be considered for a top 25 slot.

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