Florida State
The AP poll, unlike the CFP committee, ranked 13-0 FSU in their top 4.
They were right to do so, but there is still a problem here. 12-1 Texas
has suddenly leapt 4 spots in the AP poll, and now sits just in front
of FSU at #3. For beating #22 Oklahoma State? This makes no sense at
all, and I have never seen anything like this happen in the AP poll
before. I think that a bunch of writers were playing at being playoff
committee selectors here.
This is pretty simple. Texas beat Alabama, and that is great, but they
also lost to #12 Oklahoma. FSU has not taken an upset loss. They
finished one game better than Texas for the season, and they should be
ranked ahead of Texas.
And let's be clear on one issue: FSU having an injured player is itself not a legitimate reason to rate them lower. This should never be a criterion for rating any team.
Of course, if Florida State loses to Georgia in the Orange Bowl, as seems likely, then this issue becomes irrelevant.
Ohio State
The AP poll also jumped Texas up ahead of 11-1 Ohio State this week, and I repeat: for
beating #22 Oklahoma State? Again, Texas took a loss to #12 Oklahoma,
while Ohio State lost only to #1 Michigan. Ohio State therefore had a relevant record
that was effectively one game better than that of Texas for the season.
Only 2 of Ohio State's wins were close (touchdown or less), both
against top 25 opponents, while Texas posted 3 close wins, 2 of them
over unrated opponents.
Still, I suppose that if Ohio State loses to Missouri in the Cotton
Bowl, or if Texas wins both playoff games, then the writers will be
proven right here.
Oregon
11-2 Oregon was also passed up by Texas in this week's AP poll, and
Oregon also has a better relevant record than Texas does, as both of
their losses have come to #2 Washington (and both by just 3 points).
However, Oregon has only beaten one rated opponent, and that team is
only ranked #21, so I suppose that dropping Oregon behind Texas and
Alabama works. Still, it should be noted that Oregon could be legitimately ranked higher than Texas, even if it's not the best choice.
Louisiana State > Missouri
Here is an issue I covered last week.
9-3
Louisiana State (#13) defeated 10-2 Missouri (#9) by 10 points on the
road, and they should therefore be rated higher than Missouri. All 3 of
LSU's losses have come to teams ranked in the top 11, and Missouri's
best win has come over a team ranked #25, so there's just no excuse for
Missouri to
be ranked higher. Furthermore, Missouri has 4 close wins (touchdown or
less), all over unranked opponents, while LSU has posted just 1 close
win. Very poor job by the sports writers here, possibly the
worst ranking decision in this top 25.
Needless to say, 10-2 Mississippi (#11), who has beaten LSU, should
also be rated higher than Missouri.
Oklahoma
Also covered last week. 10-2 Oklahoma, who sits right in front of 9-3 LSU at #12, should also
be dropped behind LSU. Oklahoma may have a better straight record, but
OU has taken 2 upset losses to lower-ranked teams, and LSU has taken no
upset losses, so LSU has a better relevant
record than that of Oklahoma, and that is what should matter here.
Tennessee > Kentucky > Louisville > Notre Dame > North Carolina State
This is another head-to-head issue I covered last week.
8-4 Tennessee (#25) defeated 7-5 Kentucky (#33), who defeated 10-3
Louisville (#16), who defeated 9-3 Notre Dame (#15), who defeated 9-3
North Carolina State (#19), and that is the order in which these teams
should be ranked, as shown in the heading above. Let's start with the
heart of this matter:
Kentucky > Louisville
Kentucky (outside the AP poll's top 25 at #33) may be 7-5 and Louisville (#16) 10-3, but don't be
blinded by those straight records:Kentucky
should be rated ahead of Louisville due to beating them 38-31
on the road last week. Kentucky's straight record is worse solely
because they played a far more difficult schedule. Kentucky has taken
an upset loss (17-14 to 5-7 South Carolina), but so has Louisville
(38-21 to 3-9 Pittsburgh). All but 1 of Kentucky's wins came by more
than a touchdown (the exception being their win at Louisville), while
Louisville posted 4 close wins over unranked opponents. This case just
doesn't look close to me. Still, if Kentucky loses to Clemson in the
Gator Bowl, and if Louisville defeats Southern Cal in the Holiday Bowl,
then I suppose the AP voters will be proven correct.
Tennessee
8-4 Tennessee
(#25), who defeated Kentucky, should of course also be rated
higher than 10-3 Louisville. Tennessee and Louisville have each taken 1
upset loss (Tennessee to 5-7 Florida;
Louisville, again, to 3-9 Pitt). The difference between these teams is
the fact that Tennessee beat Kentucky 33-27 on the road, while
Louisville lost to Kentucky 38-31 at home. And like Kentucky, Tennessee
performed better than Louisville did.
So Tennessee > Kentucky > Louisville.
Louisville > Notre Dame
10-3 Louisville (#16) defeated 9-3 Notre Dame 33-20, and they should
therefore be rated ahead of the Irish. The AP poll thoughtlessly
dropped Louisville just behind Notre Dame this week. This is one the
CFP committee got right. Still, various bowl game results could lead to
Notre Dame meriting a higher ranking than Louisville when all is said
and done. As of now, though, Louisville should be ranked higher.
Southern Methodist
11-2 Southern Methodist was overrated at #25 last week; they are terribly overrated at #17 this week. Somehow, beating Tulane (who I deemed to be overrated last week) has jumped them up eight spots! Imagine if they had beaten a legitimate top 25 team! As I said last week, SMU
lost 34-17 to 5-7 Texas Christian, and I don't see any reason for them
to be rated higher than TCU, which is to say, out of the top 25.
Beating #23 Tulane does not impress me, because Tulane hasn't beaten
anyone that matters themselves (more on them below). Tulane should be
dropped out of the top 25 as well, behind TCU with SMU.
13-0 Liberty has taken no upset losses, and I do not understand why the
AP poll placed 11-2 SMU just ahead of them. Last week the AP rankings
did the same thing with Tulane. Do the writers have a problem with
Liberty?
The CFP committee has SMU ranked seven places lower. They did a far better job on this one.
One last note: SMU beating 6-6
Boston College in the Fenway Bowl would prove absolutely nothing. SMU
should finish unranked regardless of what happens in the bowl games.
Iowa
10-3 Iowa is still
overrated. Iowa has taken an upset loss (to 5-7 Minnesota), and their
performances have been relentlessly awful all season. Their other
losses were inept shutouts, 31-0 to Penn State and 26-0 to Michigan,
and they have posted 5 close
wins over unrated opponents, including a pair of wins by 2 and 3 points
over losing teams in their last 2 regular season games. Iowa has done
nothing at all
to merit being ranked, and they should not be ranked.
Of
course, if Iowa defeats 8-4 Tennessee (#25) in the Citrus Bowl,
then I suppose they will have proven the AP pollsters correct, and will have
earned their spot in the rankings.
Tulane
11-2 Tulane was overrated last week,
and they remain overrated at #23 this week. As stated above, SMU does
not belong in a top 25, and Tulane just lost 26-14 to SMU at home, so
they also do not belong in a top 25. Tulane just hasn't
beaten anyone of value, and they've posted a lot of poor performances
(close wins over 4-8 Tulsa, 2-10 East Carolina, 6-6 Rice, and 5-7 North
Texas).
Needless to say, Tulane beating 6-6 Virginia Tech in their bowl game would do nothing to help their cause.
James Madison
Also covered last week. 11-1 James
Madison (#24) did beat a decent team in
11-2 Troy. However, James Madison has an upset loss to 8-5 Appalachian
State dragging them down, and they only beat Troy by 2 points, whereas
Kansas State (just outside the top 25 at #29) stomped on Troy 42-13. I
have to think that KSU, at the least, should be rated higher than James
Madison, and that alone would likely leave JM just outside a legit top
25.
Beating 8-4 Air Force in their bowl game would do nothing for them.
Utah, Clemson, Kansas State, and Kansas
Repeating what I said here last week, we have at least 4 teams in the AP poll's top 25 that should not be
ranked at all, as covered above. Who should we replace them with? Well, as I indicated
above, Kentucky and Tennessee should be rated ahead of Louisville, so
that's 2 teams that would replace some of the teams that need to be
shown the door. Other teams that would be better inclusions in a top 25
than
some of the teams covered above include Utah, Clemson, Kansas State,
and Kansas.
8-4 Utah (#28) took all 4 of their losses to teams ranked in the top
21, so they have a better relevant
record
than do #17 SMU, #19 North Carolina State, #20 Iowa, #22 Oklahoma State, and #24 James Madison, all of whom have
taken upset losses to unranked teams.
8-4 Clemson (#26) has taken a pair of upset losses to unranked teams,
but they made up for one of them with an upset win over #15 Notre Dame.
They also beat 8-4 North Carolina 31-20.
8-4 Kansas State (#29) has taken 1 upset loss, in their finale to 7-5
Iowa State, but their performances have otherwise been extremely strong,
including losses at #3 Texas and at #9 Missouri by just 3 points each.
They also own wins over 8-4 Kansas and 11-2 Troy, the latter by a big
score of 42-13.
8-4 Kansas (#32) has taken an upset loss to 6-6 Texas Tech, but they
made up for it with a big upset win over #12 Oklahoma.
Troy, Miami (Ohio), and Toledo
Troy, Miami (Ohio), and Toledo are all 11-2, and they are all sitting
just outside the AP poll's top 25. As such, they are all well
positioned to finish ranked as other teams fall out of their way. But
all 3 of these teams are playing useless opponents in their bowl games,
and none of these teams should finish ranked regardless of what happens
in any bowl games.
11-2 Troy (#27) belongs ranked behind the teams that beat them, 8-4
Kansas State (#29) and 11-1 James Madison (#24). Beating 7-5 Duke in
their bowl game would do nothing to change that. And it is a joke that
KSU sits behind Troy now, given that they stomped on Troy 42-13 this
season.
11-2 Miami-Ohio (#30) was stomped 38-3 by 7-5 Miami-Florida, and they should definitely
be ranked behind the Hurricanes, which is to say, they should be
unranked. Beating 8-5 Appalachian State in their bowl game wouldn't
even merit a yawn.
11-2 Toledo (#31) just lost to Miami-Ohio, so needless to say, they
also belong ranked behind Miami-Florida, well out of the top 25. More
than that, Toledo lost to 5-7 Illinois, and they should be ranked
behind the Illini. Beating 8-4 Wyoming in their bowl game would offer
no help.
Comments on the College Football Playoff Rankings
I thought the CFP rankings were just a bit better than the AP poll's rankings last week, but this week I think that the CFP rankings are a lot
better than the AP poll's rankings. This week, I would say that there
are 9 relevant differences between the two rankings, and the CFP
committee outdid the AP poll on 7 of the 9.
Unfortunately, like last week, the CFP top 25 replicates a pretty bad error that the AP
poll makes, placing Missouri 4 places higher than LSU, who beat them by
10 on the road. Look, this is pretty simple:
according to the CFP's own rankings, Missouri lost to the #5 and #13
teams, and the best team they defeated is ranked #21. If I were to ask
a bunch of 4th graders where such a team should be ranked, they would
universally, and correctly, say somewhere between #14 and #20. And yet
a room full of adults with college degrees cannot understand this
simple logic? And we are letting this utterly inept group select who
goes to the playoffs? I find that very disturbing.
I understand the AP poll making this mistake, because the sports writers
don't have much time to rank teams after the Saturday games, and they
have always ranked teams based mostly on feelings and straight record
and when losses happened. And really, their ranking is just for fun
anyway. Nothing is really at stake. The CFP rankings, however, matter a
great deal, and more
time goes into it, and supposedly more thought goes into it as well,
and so this type of basic lack of logic is, in my opinion, inexcusable.
I don't think that anyone who makes such a judgment as ranking Missouri
higher than LSU should have anything to do with selecting which teams
go to playoffs and which don't.
And speaking of that, let's get to this year's big controversy/travesty...
Florida State Was Robbed
What
happened to Florida State is terrible. It is stupid, and it is morally
wrong. FSU was basically disqualified for having a player injury. How
is this right?
Last week, the CFP committee had FSU rated #4 and Texas #7. This week,
FSU beat #15 Louisville and Texas beat #20 Oklahoma State (CFP
rankings), and somehow Texas has jumped 4 spots to #3, ahead of FSU.
How does this make any sense at all?
The committee's spokesperson offered a terrible excuse, and that is the
fact that FSU lost their starting quarterback 3 games ago. But that was true last week, when FSU was #4 and Texas #7. Why does it matter now if it didn't matter last week, or the week before that?
Utter and complete bullshit.
At least the AP poll had FSU in their top 4, so I'm going to say that the AP poll did slightly better on this issue.
Iowa
The CFP rankings put Iowa #17, the AP poll #20, and as I wrote in the
preceding article, Iowa should not be ranked at all, so the AP poll
also did a bit better on this issue.
Louisville and Notre Dame
As I wrote in the preceding article, 10-3 Louisville beat 9-3 Notre
Dame 33-20, and they should therefore be rated higher than Notre Dame.
The CFP committee put Louisville just ahead of Notre Dame, the AP poll
just behind, so the CFP committee did a much better job on this issue.
Little Big Teams
The CFP rankings have always tended to rank "Little
Big Teams," or teams from minor conferences, much lower than the AP
poll rankings have. This year the CFP rankings have Liberty #23 (AP
#18), SMU #24 (AP #17), Tulane unranked (AP #23), and James Madison
unranked (AP #24). As I noted in the preceding article, SMU, Tulane,
and James Madison should not be ranked, so the CFP committee obviously
did a far better job on these teams than the AP poll did. Also noted in
the article above, 13-0 Liberty should definitely be ranked higher than
11-2 SMU, who lost 34-17 to a 5-7 team, and the CFP committee correctly
put Liberty ahead of SMU, while the AP poll bafflingly jumped SMU 8
places upward this week, ahead of Liberty.
The CFP committee's approach to "Little Big Teams" has been very consistent
over the years: they
just really don't like minor conference teams. Most of the time, they
are right. The AP poll definitely has a bad habit of overrating Little
Big Teams with nice-looking straight records. However, sometimes, when
a Little Big Team deserves to be ranked highly, the CFP committee still
ranks them lower than the AP poll does, so what we have here is simply
an unthinking bias against Little Big Teams that just happens to work
out most of the time.
Tennessee, Clemson, and Kansas State
The
CFP committee has Tennessee #21 (AP #25), Clemson #22 (AP #26), and
Kansas State #25 (AP #29), besting the AP poll's placement in all 3
cases. Clemson and KSU are replaced by Tulane and James Madison in the
AP poll's top 25, and as I've just indicated, those teams should not be
ranked.
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