Louisiana State > Missouri
9-3
Louisiana State (#13) defeated 10-2 Missouri (#9) by 10 points on the
road, and they should therefore be rated higher than Missouri. All 3 of
LSU's losses have come to teams ranked in the top 11, and Missouri has
not beaten a ranked opponent, so there's just no excuse for Missouri to
be ranked higher. Very poor job by the sportswriters here, possibly the
worst ranking decision in this top 25.
Needless to say, 10-2 Mississippi (#11), who has beaten LSU, should also be rated higher than Missouri.
Oklahoma
10-2 Oklahoma, who sits right in front of 9-3 LSU at #12, should also
be dropped behind LSU. Oklahoma may have a better straight record, but
OU has taken 2 upset losses to lower-ranked teams, and LSU has taken no
upset losses, so LSU has a better relevant record than that of Oklahoma, and that is what should matter here.
Kentucky > Louisville
Kentucky (unranked) may be 7-5 and Louisville (#15) 10-2, but don't be blinded by those straight records:
Kentucky should be rated ahead of Louisville due to beating them 38-31
on the road this week. Kentucky's straight record is worse solely
because they played a far more difficult schedule. Kentucky has taken
an upset loss (17-14 to 5-7 South Carolina), but so has Louisville
(38-21 to 3-9 Pittsburgh). All but 1 of Kentucky's wins came by more
than a touchdown (the exception being their win at Louisville), while
Louisville posted 4 close wins over unranked opponents. This case just
doesn't look close to me. Still, if Louisville defeats Florida State in
the ACC title game next week, their case for being rated ahead of
Kentucky gets much stronger.
Tennessee8-4 Tennessee
(unranked), who defeated Kentucky, should of course also be rated
higher than 10-2 Louisville. Tennessee and Louisville have each taken 1
upset loss (Tennessee to 5-7 Florida;
Louisville, again, to 3-9 Pitt). The difference between these teams is
the fact that Tennessee beat Kentucky 33-27 on the road, while
Louisville lost to Kentucky 38-31 at home. And like Kentucky, Tennessee
performed better than Louisville did.
So Tennessee > Kentucky > Louisville. And since Louisville
defeated #16 Notre Dame (9-3) and #21 North Carolina State (9-3), keep
in mind that all these teams should be rated in this order: Tennessee > Kentucky > Louisville > Notre Dame > North Carolina State.
Tulane
11-1 Tulane has lost only to #11 Mississippi, so they have a better relevant record
than almost every team ranked behind Ole Miss, but nevertheless I think
that Tulane is overrated at #17. The problem is that they just haven't
beaten anyone of value, and they've posted a lot of poor performances
(close wins over 4-8 Tulsa, 2-10 East Carolina, 6-6 Rice, and 5-7 North
Texas). 12-0 Liberty, who sits 3 places behind Tulane at #20, has
posted just 2 close wins this year, so I don't see a good reason for
Tulane to be rated higher than them, especially considering the fact
that they are unbeaten and Tulane is not.
Iowa
10-2 Iowa, who sits right behind Tulane at
#18, is in my opinion even more overrated than Tulane is. Unlike
Tulane, Iowa has taken an upset loss (to 5-7 Minnesota), and Iowa is
the only team in the top 25 that has performed even worse than Tulane
has. They lost 31-0 to #10 Penn State, and they have posted 5 close
wins over unrated opponents, including a pair of wins by 2 and 3 points
over losing teams in their last 2 games. Iowa has done nothing at all
to merit being ranked, and they should not be ranked.
Of
course, if Iowa defeats Michigan in the Big 10 title game next week,
then they will have proven the sports writers correct, and will have
earned their spot in the rankings.
Oklahoma State
I
think that 9-3 Oklahoma State is a bit overrated at #19. They have some
good wins (#12 Oklahoma, #28 Kansas State, #31 Kansas), but they have
also taken 3 upset losses to unranked teams, and 2 of those were
incredibly ugly (33-7 to 6-6 South Alabama and 45-3 to 6-6 Central
Florida). I think they belong closer to the bottom of the top 25,
behind Liberty (#20), North Carolina State (#21), and Oregon State
(#21), all of whom have better relevant records than OSU has.
Of course, if Oklahoma State defeats Texas in the Big 12 title game
next week, then the sports writers will have been proven right on this
one.
Toledo
11-1 Toledo is overrated at
#23, and beating Miami (Ohio) in the MAC title game next week will do
nothing to change that fact. Toledo lost to 5-7 Illinois, and frankly
they should be rated behind the Illini, which is to say, nowhere near
the top 25. They have also performed poorly (5 close wins over unranked
opponents).
James Madison
11-1 James
Madison (#24) may have a better case for being ranked than Toledo does,
as they have performed a bit better, and they did beat a good team in
10-2 Troy. However, James Madison has an upset loss to Appalachian
State dragging them down, and they only beat Troy by 2 points, whereas
Kansas State (just outside the top 25 at #28) stomped on Troy 42-13. I
have to think that KSU, at the least, should be rated higher than James
Madison, and that alone would likely leave JM just outside a legit top
25.
Southern Methodist
10-2 Southern Methodist gives us yet another overrated team at #25. SMU
lost 34-17 to 5-7 Texas Christian, and I don't see any reason for them
to be rated higher than TCU, which is to say, they should not be rated
at all.
Utah, Clemson, Kansas State, and Kansas
So
we have at least 4 teams in the AP poll's top 25 that should not be
ranked at all. Who should we replace them with? Well, as I indicated
above, Kentucky and Tennessee should be rated ahead of Louisville, so
that's 2 teams that would replace some of the teams that need to be
shown the door. Other teams that would be better inclusions in a top 25
than
some of the teams covered above include Utah, Clemson, Kansas State,
and Kansas.
8-4 Utah (#29) took all 4 of their losses to teams ranked in the top 21, so they have a better relevant record
than do #18 Iowa, #19 Oklahoma State, #21 North Carolina State, #23
Toledo, #24 James Madison, and #25 Southern Methodist, all of whom have
taken upset losses to unranked teams.
8-4 Clemson (#27) has taken a pair of upset losses to unranked teams,
but they made up for one of them with an upset win over #16 Notre Dame.
They also beat 8-4 North Carolina 31-20.
8-4 Kansas State (#28) has taken 1 upset loss, in their finale to 7-5
Iowa State, but their performance has otherwise been extremely strong,
including losses at #7 Texas and at #9 Missouri by just 3 points each.
They also own wins over 8-4 Kansas and 10-2 Troy, the latter by a big
score of 42-13.
8-4 Kansas (#31) has taken an upset loss to 6-6 Texas Tech, but they made up for it with a big upset win over #12 Oklahoma.
Comments on the College Football Playoff Rankings 11-28-23
I would say that there are 8 relevant differences between the AP poll
and the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings, all rather slight, and
I would judge that the AP poll did better with 3 of those differences,
the CFP rankings with 5, so the CFP rankings end up a little better.
Overall, the two are far more similar than they are different.
Unfortunately, the CFP top 25 repeats the same worst error that the AP
poll makes, placing Missouri 4 places higher than LSU, who beat them by
10 on the road. Look, this is pretty simple:
according to the CFP's own rankings, Missouri lost to the #1 and #13
teams, and the best team they defeated is ranked #21. If I were to ask
a bunch of 4th graders where such a team should be ranked, they would
universally, and correctly, say somewhere between #14 and #20. And yet
a room full of adults with college degrees cannot understand this
simple logic? And we are letting this utterly inept group select who
goes to the playoffs? I find that very disturbing.
I understand the AP poll making this mistake, because the sportswriters
don't have much time to rank teams after the Saturday games, and they
have always ranked teams based mostly on feelings and straight record
and when losses happened. And really, their ranking is just for fun
anyway. Nothing is really at stake. The CFP rankings, however, matter a
great deal, and more
time goes into it, and supposedly more thought goes into it as well,
and so this type of basic lack of logic is, in my opinion, inexcusable.
I don't think that anyone who makes such a judgment as ranking Missouri
higher than LSU should have anything to do with selecting which teams
go to playoffs and which don't.
Now for some comments on the aforementioned 8 differences between the AP poll and the CFP rankings...
Louisville, Iowa, and Oklahoma State
The CFP rankings put Louisville, Iowa, and Oklahoma State higher than
the AP poll did, and as I wrote about all 3 of these teams above, they
were overrated by the AP poll to begin with. So naturally I'd say that
the AP poll did a better job rating these 3 teams than the CFP rankings
did. As it happens, these 3 teams all have something in common:
each qualified for its conference's championship game. Perhaps the CFP
ranking committee is giving teams a boost for this, and if so, well, I
find that odd. How does Iowa winning its garbage division of the Big
Ten make them a better team than if they were an independent with the
same record against the same schedule? Doesn't make any sense.
Little Big Teams
The 5 issues the CFP rankings outdid the AP poll on all involve "Little
Big Teams," or teams from minor conferences. The CFP rankings put
Tulane and Liberty lower than the AP poll did, and the CFP committee
ranked Tennessee, Clemson, and Kansas State in their top 25, replacing
the AP poll's Toledo, James Madison, and Southern Methodist. As you can
read in the article above, Tennessee, Clemson, and KSU are all teams I
listed as being better top 25 candidates than some teams the AP poll
rated, and Toledo, James Madison, and SMU are all teams that I thought
should not be rated. Furthermore, I do think that Tulane and Liberty
were at least a bit overrated by the AP poll. So naturally I think the
CFP rankings made the better choices here.
This is something that has been very consistent with the CFP rankings over the years: they
just really don't like minor conference teams. Most of the time, they
are right. The AP poll definitely has a bad habit of overrating Little
Big Teams with nice-looking straight records. However, sometimes, when
a Little Big Team deserves to be ranked highly, the CFP committee still
ranks them lower than the AP poll does, so what we have here is simply
an unthinking bias against Little Big Teams that just happens to work
out most of the time.
Tulane and Liberty
I have a little more to say about Tulane and Liberty. Like the AP poll,
the CFP rankings put Tulane higher than Liberty, and as I wrote in the
article above, I think that Liberty should be ranked higher than
Tulane. Neither team has played a schedule worth a damn, but Tulane is
11-1 and Liberty 12-0, and Liberty has clearly performed better than
Tulane has on the season, so I just don't understand why Tulane is
ranked higher than Liberty in both top 25s. Unfortunately, this issue
matters a great deal, as a major bowl bid could be on the line. Which
is exactly why illogical people should not be making these decisions.
According to Massey's composite ratings, an averaging of 79 different rating systems, Liberty is #21 and Tulane is #30. I'm no fan of computer ratings, but sadly the computers have decidedly outdone the humans on this issue.
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