1)
Alabama 9-0
2) Notre Dame 10-0
3) Ohio State 5-0
4) Clemson 9-1
5) Texas A&M 7-1
6) Florida 8-1
7) Cincinnati 8-0
8) Indiana 6-1
9) Miami (Florida) 8-1
10) Iowa State 8-2
11) Coastal Carolina 10-0
12) Georgia 6-2
13) Oklahoma 7-2
14) Brigham Young 9-1
15) Northwestern 5-1
16) Southern Cal 3-0
17) Louisiana 9-1
18) Tulsa 6-1
19) Iowa 5-2
20)
North Carolina 7-3
21) Colorado 4-0
22) Liberty 9-1
23) Texas 6-3
24) Buffalo 4-0
25) Wisconsin 2-2
Others Receiving Votes
North Carolina State 8-3
Marshall 7-1
San Jose State 5-0
Oklahoma State 6-3
Central Florida 6-3
Washington 3-1
Boise State 4-1
Auburn 5-4
Missouri 5-3
Nevada 6-1
Army 7-2
UCLA 3-2
Texas Christian 5-4
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If
you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football
poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top
25
until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no
more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for
ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before
that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.
For
example, I don't think that #19 Iowa (5-2) or #20 North Carolina (7-3)
should be ranked at all. However, if Iowa beats #25 Wisconsin this
week, then they will have arguably earned a spot in the top 25 (though
they would still be overrated), and if they lose, they will fall out of
the top 25 anyway. And similarly, if North Carolina beats #9 Miami
(Florida) this week, then they will have earned a spot in the top 25,
while a loss will drop them out of the top 25. So one way or another,
these 2 issues will sort themselves out.
Obviously, while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late
enough
in
the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I
will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be
outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more
games
were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other
poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.
Playoff Committee Rankings
UPDATED -- Comments on the 12-8-20 College Football Playoff rankings are now posted at the bottom of this article!
I will also add some comments on the
playoff committee rankings to this article after that top 25 comes out
on Tuesday, but only if there is anything in those rankings to address
that is different than the issues with the AP poll that I am already
addressing below.
Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final
post-bowl top 25, I will not be fixing any of their rankings like
I will the final AP poll top 25 in January, and for that reason, I will
not be fully commenting on
the playoff committee's top 25s.
Now let's get to commenting on the problems with the latest AP poll...
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Coastal Carolina > Louisiana > Iowa State
I covered this issue last week: 10-0
Coastal Carolina (#11) won 30-27 at 9-1 Louisiana (#17), who won 31-14
at 8-2 Iowa State (#10). It doesn't get any simpler than that, and
these
teams should definitely be ranked in that order. Furthermore, Coastal Carolina and Louisiana should still
both be rated higher than Iowa State regardless of which team prevails
in their game against each other December 19th, and regardless of what
happens in Iowa State's game against Oklahoma on the same day.
It
should also be noted that Coastal Carolina is
underrated in a general sense. They've beaten 2 ranked teams (#14 BYU
and #17 Louisiana), whereas #8 Indiana has beaten 1 (and barely - #25
Wisconsin) and #9 Miami (Florida) has beaten none.
Furthermore, Coastal Carolina has won all of their games against
unrated opponents by more than a touchdown, while Indiana has posted a
close win over an unrated opponent, and Miami has posted 3! This year's AP poll has too often shown a nakedly
unfair bias for "major" conference teams.
Miami (Florida)
As
I just noted, #9 Miami (Florida) has posted 3 close
wins over unranked opponents, very poor performance, and they have not
beaten a ranked team. #12 Georgia and #14 Brigham Young have both
performed far better than that, and ought to be ranked higher than
Miami.
Texas > Oklahoma State > Tulsa
Unranked Oklahoma State (6-3) defeated #18 Tulsa (6-1) 16-7, and
they should definitely be rated higher. OSU did just take an upset loss
to an unranked team (TCU), but they have already made up for that with
a big win over #10 Iowa State. Tulsa has beaten no ranked teams at all,
and they have also performed much worse than OSU (Tulsa has 4 close
wins over unranked teams, OSU 2). This is a no-brainer.
Remember that 6-3 Texas (#23) beat Oklahoma State this year, so these 3 teams should be rated like so: Texas > Oklahoma State > Tulsa.
Iowa
As
I said in my intro above, I don't think that #19 Iowa (5-2) should be
rated in a top 25. They have taken a loss to an unranked team (Purdue),
and not one of the 5 teams they have beaten has a winning record! What
have they done to earn a slot in the top 25? Nothing yet.
North Carolina
Also
addressed in my intro, #20 North Carolina (7-3) is another team that I
don't think belongs in a top 25. But the Tar Heels have been overrated
by everyone all year long.
They were #18 in the preseason AP poll, #19 in the coaches' poll, and
they
rose as high as #5 in the AP poll in mid-October! This has been a
mystery to me the entire season. I guess football people just really,
really, really like Mack
Brown.
North Carolina has taken 2
losses to unranked teams, and they should not be ranked at all,
regardless of how charming Mack Brown is. Still, as I indicated in my
intro, UNC can earn a spot in the top 25 by beating Miami this week.
Liberty
#22
Liberty (9-1) is yet another team that should not be rated in a top 25.
They haven't beaten anyone of any value, and frankly they should be
rated behind 8-3 North Carolina State, who edged them 15-14 in
November. Since NC State has already lost to North Carolina, we have
this victory chain: North Carolina > North Carolina State > Liberty.
But none of these 3 teams should be rated at this point.
Who Should Replace Iowa, North Carolina, and Liberty in the Top 25?
If #19 Iowa, #20 North Carolina, and #22 Liberty are tossed out of the top 25, who should
replace them? Well, as I've already indicated, 6-3 Oklahoma State should be rated ahead of #18 Tulsa, and with 2 wins over rated teams, they certainly merit a top 25 slot over Iowa, UNC, and Liberty.
The
next 2 viable candidates in the "Others Receiving Votes" section of the
AP poll would be 5-0 San Jose State, who has won all of their games by
more than a touchdown, and 4-1 Boise State, who has lost only to #14
BYU.
Comments on the College Football Playoff Rankings 12-8-20
Last week's College
Football Playoff (CFP) rankings were significantly worse than the AP
poll's top 25, but it was only the second time I have noticed that
happening over the years. This week the CFP rankings are back to their
historical norm, which is to say comparable in quality to the AP poll: better in some ways, worse in others.
Iowa State
This is pretty much the same issue discussed in my AP poll critique
above, but the problem is worse in the CFP rankings. Again, Coastal
Carolina is unbeaten, 9-1 Louisiana lost only to them, and 8-2 Iowa
State lost to Louisiana at home by 17 points! It could not be easier to
logically rate these teams: Coastal Carolina > Louisiana > Iowa State > Oklahoma.
The AP poll has ISU #10, CC #11, Oklahoma #13, and Louisiana
#17, which is unfair, but the CFP's rankings of these teams is even worse: Iowa State #7, Oklahoma #11, CC #13, and Louisiana #19.
The extreme love the CFP has for Iowa State is particularly hard to
understand. Ranked at #7, ISU has 2 losses to lower-ranked teams, and
this week the CFP committee moved them ahead of unbeaten Cincinnati.
And right behind Cincinnati are Georgia and Miami (Florida), each of
whom, like Cincinnati, has suffered zero upset losses. I guess that's
why they say love is blind.
Indiana
The AP poll has Indiana #8, the CFP committee #12, and the CFP is wrong
here. 6-1 Indiana has only lost to Ohio State, and it was a close road
loss. Iowa State and Oklahoma have taken upset losses to lower-ranked
teams, and should not be ranked ahead of Indiana. Neither should Miami
(Florida), who has performed far worse than Indiana has. The AP poll
got all this right.
Brigham Young
The AP poll has Brigham Young #14, the CFP committee #18, and again,
the CFP is more wrong here. But both are underrating BYU. The Cougars
are 9-1, their only loss taken on the road in razor-close fashion
against unbeaten Coastal Carolina (who is, of course, also underrated
by both the AP poll and the CFP). And BYU's performance has been very strong. They definitely belong ahead of Iowa State, who has taken two "upset" losses and has performed far worse than BYU has.
Missouri
I did a double-take when I saw 5-3 Missouri at #25 in the CFP rankings.
The AP poll has them at #34 in the "Others Receiving Votes" section, so
this is the biggest difference between the 2 ranking systems. I have no
clue what the CFP is "thinking" here. Apparently they were really impressed by Missouri's 50-48 win over 3-6 Arkansas on Saturday?
Missouri was beaten 35-12 by
2-6 Tennessee, they have beaten no one of any value, and they have
posted 3 close wins over losing teams. A top 25 ranking for this team
is a complete joke.
Where the CFP Rankings Were Better than the AP Poll Top 25
So those are the ways the latest AP poll bettered the CFP rankings. What did the CFP committee get right?
Well, the CFP correctly ranks Oklahoma State ahead of Tulsa (OSU beat
Tulsa 16-7). That's a huge improvement over the AP poll, which has
Tulsa #18 and OSU unranked.
Then there is Liberty, whom the CFP did not rank, and as I indicated in
my comments on the AP poll above, I agree with that. The CFP also
correctly rates North Carolina State ahead of Liberty (as they defeated
Liberty this season).
So it looks like the CFP respects head-to-head results when a major
conference team beats a minor conference team, as in these 2 cases, but
not when a minor conference team beats a major conference team, as in
the case of Louisiana and Iowa State. Needless to say, that's not
logical or fair.
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