1)
Alabama 11-0
2) Clemson 10-1
3) Ohio State 6-0
4) Notre Dame 10-1
5) Texas A&M 8-1
6) Cincinnati 9-0
7) Indiana 6-1
8) Oklahoma 8-2
9) Coastal Carolina 11-0
10) Florida 8-3
11) Georgia 7-2
12) Iowa State 8-3
13) Brigham Young 10-1
14) North Carolina 8-3
15) Northwestern 6-2
16) Louisiana 9-1
17) Iowa 6-2
18) Miami (Florida) 8-2
19) San Jose State 7-0
20) Texas 6-3
21) Southern Cal 5-1
22) Tulsa 6-2
23) Liberty 9-1
24) North Carolina State 8-3
25) Oregon 4-2
Others Receiving Votes
Oklahoma State 7-3
Army 9-2
Buffalo 5-1
Central Florida 6-3
Marshall 7-2
Ball State 6-1
Washington 3-1
Alabama-Birmingham 6-3
North Dakota State 1-0
Texas Christian 6-4
Memphis 7-3
Colorado 4-1
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If
you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football
poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top
25
until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no
more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for
ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before
that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.
For
example, I think that 8-2 Oklahoma (#8) should not be rated higher than 8-3 Florida (#10).
However, Oklahoma is set to play Florida in the Cotton Bowl, and if the Sooners beat the Gators, then the
sportswriters will have been proven right, and if
the Sooners lose, then they will fall back behind the Gators in the rankings anyway.
So one way or another,
this issue will sort itself out.
Obviously, while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late
enough
in
the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I
will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be
outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more
games
were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other
poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.
Playoff Committee Rankings
I have added comments on the College
Football Playoff (CFP) top 25 to the bottom of this article, focusing
on areas where it disagrees with the AP poll's top 25.
Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final
post-bowl top 25, I will not be fixing any of their rankings like
I will the final AP poll top 25 in January, and for that reason, I will
not be fully commenting on
the playoff committee's top 25.
Now let's get to commenting on the problems with the latest AP poll...
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Clemson and Ohio State
This is a minor issue that, like Oklahoma vs. Florida, will sort itself
out, as Clemson is set to play Ohio State in a CFP semifinal game. But
given that Clemson has taken an upset loss and Ohio State is unbeaten,
I think that OSU should be rated higher than Clemson right now. Clemson
may be a better team than Ohio State at this point in the season (that
I would agree with), but Ohio State has had the better overall season,
and that's what I think a top 25 should be based on. Leave power
ratings to the computers.Coastal Carolina
I've been complaining about 11-0 Coastal Carolina's ranking for weeks. Obviously, they are unbeaten, while 8-2 Oklahoma, ranked just ahead of them at #8, has taken 2
losses to lower-ranked teams. Furthermore, Coastal Carolina has given 2
teams their only loss (#13 BYU and #16 Louisiana), while #7 Indiana
(6-1) has beaten no ranked teams.
Oklahoma
It's not just 11-0 Coastal Carolina that should be rated higher than
8-2 Oklahoma. With 2 losses to lower-rated teams, one of them a loser
(4-6 Kansas State), Oklahoma is seriously overrated at #8. #10 Florida
(8-3) has just 1 upset loss, and #11 Georgia (7-2) has no upset losses.
However, as stated in my intro above, Oklahoma plays Florida in the
Cotton Bowl this year, so this issue will sort itself out.Florida > Georgia
Just
a quick note to congratulate AP poll voters on moving Florida back
ahead of Georgia this week (Florida beat Georgia 44-28 this year). If
they would just pay better attention to head-to-head results, half my
issues with their rankings would disappear. Speaking of which...
Louisiana > Iowa State
Here is another Sun Belt team whose ranking I've been complaining about for weeks:
9-1 Louisiana (#16) won 31-14
at 8-3 Iowa State (#12), and they ought to be rated higher. That is a
decisive score, and it happened on Iowa State's home field to boot.
Even aside from this head-to-head issue, Louisiana is vastly underrated
at #16. Their only loss has come to 11-0 Coastal Carolina (#9), and if
they were a major conference team, they would be ranked in the top 10
right now. They certainly belong rated ahead of 6-2 Northwestern (#15)
and 8-3 North Carolina (#14), both of whom have taken upset losses to
unranked teams. And speaking of North Carolina...Miami (Florida) > North Carolina
There are several cases of AP poll voters unfairly ignoring head-to-head results this week, but here is a
case where they should have
ignored the head-to-head result and didn't. I know #14 North Carolina
just whipped #18 Miami (Florida) 62-26 a week ago, but as impressive as that score
is, the fact is that it is just one game, and Miami is 8-2, North
Carolina 8-3. More importantly, Miami defeated two teams that beat UNC
this year (Florida State and Virginia), and so they are one game better
than UNC on the season even with the head-to-head result. As such,
Miami should be ranked ahead of North Carolina.
Oklahoma State > Tulsa
I covered this problem last week:
unranked Oklahoma State (7-3)
defeated #22 Tulsa (6-2) 16-7, and
they should definitely be rated higher. OSU has taken an upset loss to
an unranked team (6-4 TCU), but they also own
a huge win over #12 Iowa State to balance that out. Tulsa has beaten no
ranked teams at all, so this issue should be a no-brainer.
North Carolina State > Liberty
Another issue I covered last week.
#24 North Carolina State (8-3) edged #23 Liberty (9-1) 15-14 in
November, and I therefore think they should be rated higher.
Others Receiving Votes
It
appears as though some sportswriters went ahead and turned in a top 25
without bothering to look at all of the scores this weekend. In the
"Others Receiving Votes" section of the AP poll we find several more
ignored head-to-head results, and the first is a real head-scratcher...
Ball State > Buffalo
On Friday, 6-1 Ball State defeated 5-1 Buffalo 38-28 to win the MAC
championship, but someone didn't get the memo, because Buffalo (#28)
still has more poll points than Ball State (#31). Senseless.
UAB > Marshall
Similarly, 6-3 Alabama-Birmingham (#33) defeated 7-2 Marshall (#30)
22-13 yesterday to win the CUSA championship, and UAB should be rated
higher (UAB has more losses because they played #16 Louisiana and #18
Miami, while Marshall played no rated teams at all).
SMU > Memphis > UCF
This season 7-3 SMU has defeated 7-3 Memphis, who has beaten 6-3
Central Florida, and that is the order these 3 teams should be ranked,
but the AP poll has them in the opposite order (UCF #29, Memphis #36,
SMU no poll points at all).
Comments on the College Football Playoff Rankings
The problems with this week's College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings
are mostly the same as we've seen the last
couple weeks, so most of the following comments will sound very familiar.
Oklahoma, Coastal Carolina, Iowa State, and Louisiana
This is pretty much the same set of issues discussed in my AP poll critique
above, but these problems, much like we've seen for weeks now, are worse in the CFP
rankings. Again, Coastal
Carolina is unbeaten, 9-1 Louisiana lost only to them, and 8-3 Iowa
State lost to Louisiana at home by 17 points! It could not be easier to
logically rate these teams: Coastal
Carolina > Louisiana > Iowa State. Furthermore, with 2 upset
losses, one of them to Iowa State, Oklahoma being rated ahead of
Coastal Carolina and Louisiana is also logically poor.
The AP poll has Oklahoma #8, CC #9, Iowa State #12, and Louisiana
#16, which is unfair, but the CFP's rankings of these teams is even
worse: Oklahoma #6, Iowa State
#10, CC #12, and Louisiana #19.
Cincinnati
As you may have noticed, the CFP committee really doesn't like minor
conference teams, and they
have treated them worse than the AP poll has all season. Cincinnati's
#8 ranking is 2 places worse than the AP poll gives them. I don't see
how it's fair to put Cincinnati, who is unbeaten, behind Oklahoma, who
has
suffered 2
upset losses. But Cinci also shouldn't be ranked behind Florida, who has taken a loss to an unranked opponent.
Indiana
Like all of the above, this was a CFP ranking issue I covered last week. The
AP poll has Indiana #7, the CFP committee has them #11, and the CFP is wrong
here. 6-1 Indiana has only lost to Ohio State, and it was a close road
loss. Iowa State and Oklahoma have taken upset losses to lower-ranked
teams, and should not be ranked ahead of Indiana.
Brigham Young
Also an issue last week. The AP
poll has Brigham Young #13, the CFP committee #16, and again,
the CFP is more wrong here. The Cougars
are 10-1, their only loss taken on the road in razor-close fashion
against unbeaten Coastal Carolina (who is, of course, also underrated
by both the AP poll and the CFP). And BYU's performance has been very strong. They definitely belong
ahead of North Carolina (CFP #13), Northwestern (#14), and Iowa (#15), all of whom have suffered upset losses to unranked teams.
AP Poll Better on Southern Cal and San Jose State
These are minor CFP issues and not necessarily incorrect, but I
just wanted to add that I prefer the AP poll's ratings for Southern Cal
and San Jose State. The AP has 5-1 USC rated #21, the CFP has them #17,
and USC just hasn't accomplished anything. As for SJ State, the AP has
them #19, the CFP #22, and no one has come within a touchdown of San
Jose State (much unlike USC).
Where the CFP Rankings Are Better than the AP Poll Top 25
So those are the ways the latest AP poll bettered the CFP rankings.
What did the CFP committee get right?
Well, the CFP is right to put Oklahoma State ahead of Tulsa (OSU
beat
Tulsa 16-7). This is a huge
improvement over the AP poll, which has
Tulsa #22 and OSU unranked.
And unlike the AP poll, the CFP correctly rates North Carolina
State ahead of Liberty (they edged
Liberty 15-14 this season).
So it looks like the CFP "respects" head-to-head results when a major
conference team beats a non-major, as in these 2 cases, but
not when a minor conference team beats a major conference team, as in
the case of Louisiana and Iowa State. Needless to say, that's not
logical or fair.
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