1)
Alabama 10-0
2) Notre Dame 10-0
3) Ohio State 5-0
4) Clemson 9-1
5) Texas A&M 7-1
6) Cincinnati 8-0
7) Indiana 6-1
8) Iowa State 8-2
9) Coastal Carolina 11-0
10) Georgia 7-2
11) Florida 8-2
12) Oklahoma 7-2
13) Southern Cal 5-0
14) Brigham Young 10-1
15) Northwestern 6-1
16) North Carolina 8-3
17) Louisiana 9-1
18) Iowa 6-2
19) Miami (Florida) 8-2
20) Tulsa 6-1
21) Texas 6-3
22) Liberty 9-1
23) Buffalo 5-0
24)
North Carolina State 8-3
25)
San Jose State 6-0
Others Receiving Votes
Oklahoma State 7-3
Marshall 7-1
Boise State 5-1
Central Florida 6-3
Army 8-2
Washington 3-1
Auburn 6-4
Texas Christian 6-4
Appalachian State 8-3
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If
you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football
poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top
25
until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no
more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for
ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before
that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.
For
example, I think that #15 Northwestern (6-1) is a bit overrated.
However, if Northwestern beats #3 Ohio State this week, then the
sportswriters will have been proven right about Northwestern, and if
they lose, the Wildcats will likely drop a bit in the rankings anyway.
So one way or another,
this issue will largely sort itself out.
Obviously, while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late
enough
in
the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I
will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be
outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more
games
were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other
poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.
Playoff Committee Rankings
UPDATED -- Comments on the 12-15-20 College Football Playoff rankings are now posted at the bottom of this article!
I
will also add some comments on the
playoff committee rankings to this article after that top 25 comes out
on Tuesday, but only if there is anything in those rankings to address
that is different than the issues with the AP poll that I am already
addressing below.
Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final
post-bowl top 25, I will not be fixing any of their rankings like
I will the final AP poll top 25 in January, and for that reason, I will
not be fully commenting on
the playoff committee's top 25s.
Now let's get to commenting on the problems with the latest AP poll...
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Coastal Carolina > Louisiana > Iowa State
I've been complaining about this issue for the last 2 weeks: 11-0
Coastal Carolina (#9) won 30-27 at 9-1 Louisiana (#17), who won 31-14
at 8-2 Iowa State (#8). It doesn't get any simpler than that, and
these
teams should definitely be ranked in that order. Furthermore, Coastal
Carolina and Louisiana should still
both be rated higher than Iowa State regardless of which team prevails
in their game against each other on Saturday, and regardless of what
happens in Iowa State's game against #12 Oklahoma on the same day.
Florida > Georgia
#11 Florida (8-2) defeated #10 Georgia (7-2) rather decisively this
season, 44-28, and there is no doubt that they should be ranked higher.
In addition, Florida should be ranked ahead of Georgia even if, as
expected, they lose to #1 Alabama on Saturday.
Miami (Florida) > North Carolina
Almost
all of the problems with this week's AP poll stem from the
sportswriters unfairly ignoring head-to-head results, but here is a
case where they should have
ignored the head-to-head result and didn't. I know #16 North Carolina
just whipped #19 Miami (Florida) 62-26, but as impressive as that score
is, the fact is that it is just one game, and Miami is 8-2, North
Carolina 8-3. More importantly, Miami defeated two teams that beat UNC
this year (Florida State and Virginia), and so they are one game better
than UNC on the season even with the head-to-head result. As such,
Miami should remain ranked ahead of North Carolina.
Texas > Oklahoma State > Tulsa
I covered this issue last week: unranked Oklahoma State (7-3) defeated #20 Tulsa (6-1) 16-7, and
they should definitely be rated higher. OSU has taken an upset loss to an unranked team (TCU), but they also own
a huge win over #8 Iowa State. Tulsa has beaten no ranked teams at all,
and they have also performed much worse than OSU (Tulsa has 4 close
wins over unranked teams, OSU 2). This is a no-brainer.
Remember that 6-3 Texas (#21) beat Oklahoma State this year, so these 3
teams should be rated like so:
Texas > Oklahoma State > Tulsa.
North Carolina State > Liberty
Another issue I covered last week. #24 North Carolina State (8-3) edged #22 Liberty 15-14 in
November, and I think they should therefore be rated higher.
Buffalo and San Jose State
I believe that #23 Buffalo and #25 San Jose State, both unbeaten,
are a bit underrated. No team has come within a touchdown of either,
which is far more impressive performance than that displayed by North
Carolina State and Liberty.
Comments on the College Football Playoff Rankings 12-15-20
The problems with this week's College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings are mostly the same as we saw last week, so most of the following comments will sound very familiar.
Iowa State
This is pretty much the same issue discussed in my AP poll critique
above, but the problem, much like last week, is worse in the CFP rankings. Again, Coastal
Carolina is unbeaten, 9-1 Louisiana lost only to them, and 8-2 Iowa
State lost to Louisiana at home by 17 points! It could not be easier to
logically rate these teams: Coastal Carolina > Louisiana > Iowa State > Oklahoma.
The AP poll has ISU #8, CC #9, Oklahoma #12, and Louisiana
#17, which is unfair, but the CFP's rankings of these teams is even worse: Iowa State #6, Oklahoma #10, CC #12, and Louisiana #19.
The extreme love the CFP has for Iowa State is particularly hard to
understand. Ranked at #6, ISU has 2 losses to lower-ranked teams, and
this week the CFP committee moved them ahead of Florida, who has just 1 upset loss.
And Florida has performed a lot
better than Iowa State has. All of their wins have been by more than a
touchdown, while ISU has posted 4 close wins. And both of Florida's
losses were close, while ISU was routed by Louisiana at home.
Furthermore, right behind Florida are Georgia and Cincinnati, neither
of which has suffered any upset losses. That makes both of them effectively 2 games better than Iowa State on the season.
Cincinnati
The CFP committee really doesn't like minor conference teams, and they
have treated them worse than the AP poll has all season. Cincinnati's
#9 ranking is 3 places worse than the AP poll gives them. As noted
above, 8-0 Cincinnati should not be rated behind Iowa State, who has
suffered 2
upset losses. But they also shouldn't be ranked behind Florida, who
just lost to an unranked opponent. Cincinnati has not only been
perfect, but they have also beaten 4 teams that are 6-3 or better. Who
else can you say that about?
Indiana
This was an issue last week. The AP poll has Indiana #7, the CFP committee #11, and the CFP is wrong
here. 6-1 Indiana has only lost to Ohio State, and it was a close road
loss. Iowa State and Oklahoma have taken upset losses to lower-ranked
teams, and should not be ranked ahead of Indiana.
Brigham Young
Also an issue last week. The AP poll has Brigham Young #14, the CFP committee #17, and again,
the CFP is more wrong here. But both are underrating BYU. The Cougars
are 10-1, their only loss taken on the road in razor-close fashion
against unbeaten Coastal Carolina (who is, of course, also underrated
by both the AP poll and the CFP). And BYU's performance has been very strong. They definitely belong ahead of Iowa State, who has taken two "upset" losses and has performed far worse than BYU has.
Colorado
For the second week in a row, I did a double-take when I saw who was
ranked #25 in the CFP rankings.
Last week it was the ridiculous choice of Missouri (who has since been
trounced by Georgia and removed). This week it is 4-1 Colorado, who
just lost 38-21 at home to unranked Utah! How is this team ranked and not 5-0 Buffalo, who has stomped on everyone they have played?
Where the CFP Rankings Are Better than the AP Poll Top 25
So those are the ways the latest AP poll bettered the CFP rankings. What did the CFP committee get right?
Well, the CFP correctly ranks 8-2 Florida ahead of 7-2 Georgia, which
the AP poll failed to do (Florida beat Georgia rather handily this
season, 44-28).
And the CFP is also right to put Oklahoma State ahead of Tulsa (OSU beat
Tulsa 16-7). This is a huge improvement over the AP poll, which has
Tulsa #20 and OSU unranked.
And finally, unlike the AP poll, the CFP correctly rates North Carolina State ahead of Liberty (they edged
Liberty 15-14 this season).
So it looks like the CFP respects head-to-head results when a major
conference team is the head-to-head winner, as in these 3 cases, but
not when a minor conference team beats a major conference team, as in
the case of Louisiana and Iowa State. Needless to say, that's not
logical or fair.
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