1)
Louisiana State 13-0
2) Ohio State 13-0
3) Clemson 13-0
4) Oklahoma 12-1
5) Georgia 11-2
6) Florida 10-2
7) Oregon 11-2
8) Baylor 11-2
9) Auburn 9-3
Alabama 10-2
11) Wisconsin 10-3
12) Utah 11-2
13) Penn State 10-2
14) Notre Dame 10-2
15) Memphis 12-1
16) Minnesota 10-2
17) Michigan 9-3
18) Boise State 12-1
19) Iowa 9-3
20) Appalachian State 12-1
21) Navy 9-2
22) Southern Cal 8-4
23) Cincinnati 10-3
24) Air Force 10-2
25) Oklahoma State 8-4
Others Receiving Votes
Southern Methodist 10-2
Virginia 9-4
Kansas State 8-4
Florida Atlantic 10-3
Texas A&M 7-5
Central Florida 9-3
Iowa State 7-5
Arizona State 7-5
California 7-5
Washington 7-5
North Dakota State 13-0
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If
you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football
poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top
25
until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no
more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for
ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before
that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.
For
example, I think that #9 Auburn (9-3) and #9 Alabama (10-2) should both
be ranked higher than #8 Baylor (11-2), for reasons discussed below.
However, if Baylor beats #5 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, then the
sportswriters will have been
proven right. And if Baylor loses, while Auburn and Alabama win their
bowl games against Minnesota and Michigan, then Baylor will fall back
behind Auburn and Alabama in the final rankings anyway. On the other hand, if all 3
lose, this may be an issue I'll have to address when the final top 25 is published.
Obviously, while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late
enough
in
the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I
will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be
outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more
games
were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other
poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.
Playoff Committee Rankings
As I said last week, this year I am seeing a dramatically
improved top 25 from the playoff committee, specifically where
head-to-head results are concerned. From the beginning,
"head-to-head results" has been a stated and printed (on the college
football playoff website) criterion for their rankings, but this year,
their 6th season ranking teams, is the first time I've seen them making
a real attempt to actually heed head-to-head results. I tell you, it is very
refreshing to see. In past years, the differences between the playoff
committee
rankings and the AP poll's top 25 have been minor, but this year, the
playoff committee's top 25 is much better
than the AP poll.
Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final
post-bowl top 25, I will not be fixing any of their rankings like
I will the final AP poll top 25 in January, and for that reason, I will
not be fully commenting on the playoff committee's current top 25.
Now let's get to commenting on the problems with the latest AP poll...
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Who Should Be #1?
Last week,
I stated that Ohio
State should have been rated #1, and while the AP poll had LSU #1, the
playoff committee pinned Ohio State to the top of their list.
Then this weekend, LSU stomped on #4 Georgia 37-10, while Ohio State
had to rally to beat #10 Wisconsin 34-21, and as a result, LSU has
increased their lead in the latest AP poll, and they have taken over the
#1 slot in the playoff committee rankings. But has my mind changed?
Slightly. I now think that LSU is a more valid option for #1, but I
still think that Ohio State is a better and more logical choice.
Ohio
State has played 5 games against ranked opponents (according to the
AP's own poll, as well as the committee's top 25), Louisiana State 4,
and Ohio
State's opponents have a higher aggregate winning percentage than do
LSU's opponents (LSU also played an FCS team). The Big 10 was 34-8
(.810) against nonconference opponents this season, the SEC 42-14
(.750). OSU and LSU both fielded top 5 offenses, and OSU also fielded a
top 5 defense, but LSU's defense ranks #32 in yards per game and #27 in
points per game. Finally, the closest anyone
has come to
Ohio State this season is 11 points, while LSU only beat Auburn by 3,
Alabama by 5, and worst of all, unrated
Texas by 7.
The Case for LSU
Having said all that, I do think there is a case for LSU to be ranked
#1. They definitely looked better on Saturday than Ohio State did,
though I think ratings should be based on the whole season rather than
on the last game played. So I think it is much more significant that
Ohio State's 5 games against ranked opponents have come against teams
that are rated #11, #11, #13, #17, and #23, while LSU's top victims are
rated #5, #6, #9, and #9. As you can see, that is a pretty big
difference, and Ohio State has not played a (current) top 10 opponent,
while LSU has played 4. Furthermore, LSU's game at Alabama came while
Tua Tagovailoa was still their quarterback, and Alabama is not the same
team without him. Like many observers, I do think that LSU's win
at Alabama with a healthy Tagovailoa easily represents the most
impressive win by any team this season.
A Word from the Nerds
Kenneth Massey has long published a composite ranking
that incorporates all the published college football ranking systems he
can find, most of them math-based systems. As of this writing, his
current list includes 73 systems, and 59 of those have Ohio State
ranked #1. That is not even close.
Oregon
11-2 Oregon is overrated at #7. For one thing, #9 Auburn beat them in
the season opener, and the Ducks should not have passed them up this
week. Even the playoff committee, which got all of the other
head-to-head cases correct (covered below), decided to ignore this one.
Perhaps that is because Oregon won their conference championship:
"conference championships won" is another ranking criterion the playoff
committee lists on their website. But if so, why is #15 Memphis, who
also won their conference, not ranked in the top 10? After all, 12-1
Memphis not only has a better record than Oregon does, but they have
also won 3 games against ranked opponents to Oregon's 2. And before you
merely assume that the PAC 12 is just better than the AAC, digest these
facts: the PAC 12 was a mere
24-12 (.667) against nonconference opponents, worst of the major
conferences this season, and even the AAC did better than that, 33-14
(.702)!
Oregon absolutely should be dropped behind #9 Auburn, who beat them.
And Alabama, tied with Auburn at #9 (they should be rated behind
Auburn, as covered below), has taken no upset losses, while Oregon took
a loss to unranked Arizona State, so Alabama should be ranked ahead of
the Ducks as well.
I'd be inclined to drop Oregon much, much further than that myself, but I suppose
rating them ahead of #11 Wisconsin, who also lost to an unranked team, is doable.
Utah
Staying
on the topic of the PAC 12 being weak this year, 11-2 Utah (#12) is
also overrated. Utah did not defeat a rated team, and they took an
upset loss to #22 Southern Cal. They should be dropped behind Penn
State, Notre Dame, Memphis, Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa, all of whom
defeated at least one ranked team. And of that group of teams, only
12-1 Memphis took an upset loss as bad as Utah's to USC. But Memphis
has won 3 games over ranked opponents, which is 3 more than Utah has
managed. Utah can fairly be ranked ahead of Boise State and Appalachian
State, but that's about it.
Alabama and Auburn
Last
week, the AP poll had 10-2 Alabama ranked #9 and 9-3 Auburn #11,
despite the fact that Auburn had just beaten Alabama, and all 3 of
Auburn's losses came to teams ranked higher than Alabama (#1 LSU, #5
Georgia, and #6 Florida). Furthermore, in addition to beating Alabama,
Auburn also has a win over #7 Oregon, while Alabama has not beaten a
rated opponent. Well, this week a bunch of sportswriters appear to have
wised up, because even though neither team played this week, Auburn is
now tied with Alabama at #9. Sadly, the AP poll obviously fell one
voter shy of fully waking up on this issue. This is one the playoff
committee got right in their rankings both last week and this week.
But I have another problem with the rating of these teams:
I think Alabama and Auburn should both be rated ahead of #8 Baylor
(11-2). This is an issue of performance. Baylor has posted 5 close wins
over unrated opponents, 4 of them losing teams, while Auburn has posted
2 such results and Alabama none.
Notre Dame and Michigan
Here's an easy one that I covered last week. I'll just repeat what I wrote then: "9-3 Michigan (#17) stomped on 10-2 Notre Dame
(#14) 45-14. Is that really not clear enough for you, AP poll voters?
All 3 of Michigan's losses have come to teams that are ranked higher
than Notre Dame, so this ranking of these teams is inexcusable.
Michigan should absolutely be rated higher."
The playoff committee got this
one right.
Minnesota and Iowa
Again, covered last week: "This one is trickier than the above head-to-head issue, but 9-3
Iowa (#19) should be rated ahead of 10-2 Minnesota (#16) based on the
fact that the Hawkeyes just beat them a couple of weeks ago. The tricky
part is that Minnesota did beat a higher-rated team, #13 Penn State,
but that one win is trumped by the head-to-head result at Iowa."
The playoff committee got this
one right as well. Congratulations to them.
Iowa
and
Minnesota should both be rated higher than #15 Memphis. Memphis took an
upset loss to an unranked team, while all of the losses taken by Iowa
and Minnesota have come to higher-ranked teams. The playoff committee
did better than the AP poll in this regard too, as they did rate Iowa
higher than Memphis, but unfortunately they placed Minnesota just
behind Memphis.
Navy
I think that 9-2 Navy
(#21) should be moved up ahead
of 12-1 Boise State (#18) and 12-1 Appalachian State (#20). Boise State
and Appalachian State have each taken an upset loss to an unranked
team, while Navy has not. And
it need hardly be said that the AAC (Navy's conference) is vastly better than the MWC (Boise) and Sun Belt (App St)
conferences. You only need to look at the AP poll's own rankings to see
that.
10-3 Cincinnati (#23) and 10-2 Southern Methodist (#26) are a couple
more AAC teams that could be ranked higher as well (like Navy, neither
has taken an upset loss), but since each has posted a bunch of poor
performances, where they're ranked now will work.
Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Texas
Here
is a group of teams that could all be rated in the current top 25: 8-4 Oklahoma State, 8-4 Kansas State, 7-5 Iowa State, and 7-5 Texas. The Big 10 posted the best record against
nonconference opponents this year, 34-8 (.810), barely edging out the
Big 12, who went 24-6 (.800). But the Big 12 only has 3 ranked teams,
while the Big 10 has 6. That is because the Big 12's teams all have to
play each other, and they beat each other up more, producing worse
straight records.
The AP poll currently has Oklahoma State ranked #25, Kansas State #28,
Iowa State #31, and no one has voted for Texas at all. However, it is
Texas that should be rated at the top of this quartet of teams.
All four of these teams went 5-4 in conference play. The reason Iowa
State and Texas have 5 losses instead of 4 is because they each lost
close games to rated nonconference opponents (ISU lost 18-17 to #19
Iowa, Texas lost 45-38 to #1 LSU), while KSU and OSU did not play a
rated nonconference opponent (or even close). Needless to
say, those nonconference losses taken by ISU and Texas should be
irrelevant when comparing them to KSU and OSU, since both losses came
to teams that are much higher rated than all four of these teams. If
anything, since the losses were close, they should work in favor of ISU
and Texas. But these 4 teams are basically the same.
How do we separate them for ranking? Well, if you don't want to put all
4 teams into a tie with one another (that would be a valid solution),
then you should start with head-to-head:look
at how these 4 teams did against each other. Texas and Oklahoma
State were 2-1 amongst these 4 teams, and KSU and ISU were 1-2. And
since Texas defeated Oklahoma State, they go to the front of the line.
OSU defeated both KSU and ISU, so they come next, and KSU beat ISU in
their finale, so the Cyclones go to the bottom of this set of teams.
Long story made short, Texas should be ranked #25 rather than Oklahoma State.
Florida Atlantic and Central Florida
Last
week, 10-3 Florida Atlantic did not have a single poll point, but this
week they have jumped to #29, just outside the top 25. This is
presumably because their coach, Lane Kiffin, was just hired by Ole
Miss, and I guess that spurred a few writers to notice FAU. However,
FAU was routed 48-14 by 9-3 Central Florida this season, and they have
no business being rated higher than UCF. FAU also took another loss to
an unrated team, and needless to say, their list of wins is close to
worthless.
FAU is hosting 10-2 Southern Methodist (#26) in a bowl game, but even
if they win that game, they should not be ranked. Such a result would
just knock SMU out of the running.
9-3 Central Florida should definitely be ranked ahead of FAU, but UCF
should not be ranked in a final top 25 either, as they have taken a
pair of losses to unranked teams. All of the Big 12 candidates listed
above are better candidates for a top 25, as is the following team...
Texas A&M
7-5
Texas A&M is tied with Florida Atlantic at #29, just outside the
top 25. The Aggies haven't beaten anyone of much value, but they make
for a better final top 25 candidate because, unlike FAU and UCF, Texas
A&M has not taken an upset loss. In fact, all 5 of their losses
have come to teams ranked in the top 9!
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