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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: December 1, 2019 (Updated Dec 3)

1) Louisiana State 12-0
2) Ohio State 12-0
3) Clemson 12-0
4) Georgia 11-1
5) Utah 11-1
6) Oklahoma 11-1
7) Florida 10-2
8) Baylor 11-1
9) Alabama 10-2
10) Wisconsin 10-2
11) Auburn 9-3
12) Penn State 10-2
13) Oregon 10-2
14) Notre Dame 10-2
15) Minnesota 10-2
16) Memphis 11-1
17) Michigan 9-3
18) Iowa 9-3
19) Boise State 11-1
20) Appalachian State 11-1
21) Cincinnati 10-2
22) Virginia 9-3
23) Navy 9-2
24) Southern Cal 8-4
25) Air Force 10-2

Others Receiving Votes
Southern Methodist 10-2
Oklahoma State 8-4
Kansas State 8-4
Central Florida 9-3
Virginia Tech 8-4
Iowa State 7-5
Arizona State 7-5
California 7-5
Washington 7-5
North Dakota State 12-0

If you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top 25 until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.

For example, 9-3 Virginia is currently ranked #22 despite 2 losses to unranked teams and no wins over rated opponents. Their performances have been pretty consistently poor, and they should not be ranked at all. However, if Virginia beats Clemson in the ACC championship game next week, then the sportswriters will have been proven right, and if Virginia loses, they will fall out of the top 25 anyway, so this issue will sort itself out.

Obviously, while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late enough in the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more games were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.

Playoff Committee Rankings

Updated Tuesday, December 3, 2019: WOW! This year I am seeing a dramatically improved top 25 from the playoff committee! From the beginning, "head-to-head results" has been a stated and printed (on the college football playoff website) criterion for their rankings, but this year, their 6th season ranking teams, is the first time I've seen them truly and fully heeding head-to-head results. I tell you, it is very refreshing to see. In past years, the differences between the playoff committee rankings and the AP poll's top 25 have been minor. This year, the playoff committee's top 25 is much better than the AP poll.

Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final post-bowl top 25, I will not be fixing any of their rankings like I will the final AP poll top 25 in January, and for that reason, I will not be fully commenting on the playoff committee's current top 25.

Now let's get to commenting on the problems with the latest AP poll...

Who Should Be #1?

Thankfully, it doesn't really matter if you're #1 or #2 at the end of November. That will definitely sort itself out. Nevertheless, Ohio State should be #1.

Ohio State has played 4 ranked opponents (according to the AP's own poll), Louisiana State 3. And the closest anyone has come to Ohio State this season is 11 points, while LSU only beat Auburn by 3, Alabama by 5, and worst of all, unrated Texas by 7.

Update: The playoff committee got this one right.

Utah vs. Oklahoma

If the favorites all win their conference championship games, then the far bigger issue is going to be Utah vs. Oklahoma for the 4th slot in the playoffs. Right now, the AP poll likes Utah (Update: so does the playoff committee).

I think it's too bad you can only choose one, because you could validly argue for either team. Utah has performed better, as just one of their wins was close, while Oklahoma has posted 4 close wins, 3 of them against unranked teams. But Oklahoma has played a tougher schedule, and they have accomplished far more, as they have beaten #8 Baylor (11-1) on the road, while Utah has not beaten a ranked team at all. Against nonconference opponents, the Big 12 is 24-6 (.800) this year, while the PAC 12 is 24-12 (.667), worst of the major conferences.

My choice would be Oklahoma, but as I said, I think you could go with either team.

Florida, Alabama, and Auburn

However, neither Oklahoma nor Utah should be ranked #5 right now. That would be 10-2 Florida. Florida's losses have come to #1 LSU and #4 Georgia, both ranked higher than Oklahoma and Utah, while Oklahoma and Utah have each taken an upset loss to a much lower-rated team.

Similarly, 10-2 Alabama and 9-3 Auburn should be rated higher than Oklahoma and Utah as well. But before we get to that, let's first talk about the fact that Auburn should be ranked ahead of Alabama. Auburn just beat Alabama, after all. And all 3 of Auburn's losses have come to teams that are rated higher than Alabama (#1 LSU, #4 Georgia, and #7 Florida). Furthermore, in addition to beating Alabama, Auburn also defeated #13 Oregon, while Alabama has not beaten a team that is ranked, or even close to ranked. The AP poll is simply (and blindly) rating Alabama higher than Auburn because Alabama is 10-2 and Auburn 9-3, but Alabama is 0-2 against rated teams, and Auburn's 2-3 is vastly better, especially since it includes the head-to-head win. This is just another case of the AP poll punishing a team for playing a tougher schedule (Update: the playoff committee got this one right).

Once you correctly move Florida ahead of Oklahoma and Utah, Auburn must follow, since all 3 of their losses have come to higher-ranked teams, while Oklahoma and Utah, again, have each taken an upset loss to a much lower-rated team. After that, Alabama is the same story. Their only losses are to higher-rated teams. I know the AP poll likes to spread the wealth around, but #4-#7 should all be SEC teams.

Notre Dame and Michigan

Here's an easy one. 9-3 Michigan (#17) stomped on 10-2 Notre Dame (#14) 45-14. Is that really not clear enough for you, AP poll voters? All 3 of Michigan's losses have come to teams that are ranked higher than Notre Dame, so this ranking of these teams is inexcusable. Michigan should absolutely be rated higher.

Update: The playoff committee got this one right.

Minnesota and Iowa

This one is trickier than the above head-to-head issue, but 9-3 Iowa (#18) should be rated ahead of 10-2 Minnesota (#15) based on the fact that the Hawkeyes just beat them a couple of weeks ago. The tricky part is that Minnesota did beat a higher-rated team, #12 Penn State, but that one win is trumped by the head-to-head result at Iowa.

Iowa should be moved up ahead of #15 Minnesota, since Iowa and Minnesota both belong rated higher than #16 Memphis. Memphis took an upset loss to an unranked team, while all of the losses taken by Iowa and Minnesota have come to higher-ranked teams.

Update: The playoff committee got this one right.

Oregon

10-2 Oregon (#13) took an upset loss to an unranked team, so I'd move all four of the just-covered teams ahead of them: Michigan, Notre Dame, Iowa, and Minnesota. That is because none of those teams has taken an upset loss. And as mentioned earlier, the PAC 12 was the weakest of the major conferences at 24-12 (.667) against nonconference opponents. Not mentioned until now is the fact that the Big 10 edged out the Big 12 for the best record against nonconference opponents, 34-8 (.810).

I'd be inclined to drop Oregon further than that myself, but I suppose rating them ahead of Memphis isn't completely terrible.

Cincinnati, Navy, and Southern Methodist

Similar to the above, I think that 10-2 Cincinnati (#21), 9-2 Navy (#23), and 10-2 Southern Methodist (#26) should all be moved up ahead of 11-1 Boise State (#19) and 11-1 Appalachian State (#20). Boise State and Appalachian State have each taken an upset loss to an unranked team, while Cincinnati, Navy, and SMU have taken no upset losses.

And it need hardly be said that the AAC (to which Cinci, Navy, and SMU all belong) is vastly better than the MWC (Boise) and Sun Belt (App St) conferences. You only need to look at the AP poll's own rankings to see that.

Virginia

9-3 Virginia (#22) does not belong in the top 25. They have taken 2 upset losses to unranked teams, and they have repeatedly posted poor performances. Of course, as I noted at the top of this article, Virginia faces #3 Clemson this week, so win or lose, this issue will sort itself out.

Air Force

Once we've moved Cincinnati, Navy, and SMU ahead of Boise State, we'd do well to move 10-2 Air Force (#25) ahead of Appalachian State (and of course Southern Cal, who is 8-4 and ranked #24). This is again a matter of upset losses: Appalachian State has taken an upset loss to an unranked team, Southern Cal has taken 2 such losses, and Air Force has not taken an upset loss.

Central Florida and Virginia Tech

9-3 Central Florida and 8-4 Virginia Tech are not ranked, but they are closer than they should be. They are poised to make the final top 25 with a bowl win, but unless that bowl win comes over a rated team, I don't think either of these teams will merit top 25 inclusion. Each of them has taken 2 losses to unranked teams.

I think we can do better than that, starting with the following teams...

Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Texas

Here is a group of teams that could be rated in the top 25 now, and that are at least better suited to be ranked #26-30 (2 of them already are): 8-4 Kansas State, 8-4 Oklahoma State, 7-5 Iowa State, and 7-5 Texas. As mentioned earlier, the Big 10 posted the best record against nonconference opponents this year, 34-8 (.810), barely edging out the Big 12, who went 24-6 (.800). But the Big 12 only has 2 ranked teams, while the Big 10 has 6. That is because the Big 12's teams all have to play each other, and they beat each other up more, producing worse straight records.

The AP poll currently has Kansas State and Oklahoma State tied at #27, Iowa State at #31, and no one voted for Texas at all. However, it is Texas that should be rated at the top of this quartet of teams.

All four of these teams went 5-4 in conference play. The reason Iowa State and Texas have 5 losses instead of 4 is because they each lost close games to rated nonconference opponents (ISU lost 18-17 to #18 Iowa, Texas lost 45-38 to #1 LSU), while KSU and OSU did not play a rated nonconference opponent (or even close). So once again, the AP poll is rewarding teams for playing cowardly schedules. Needless to say, those nonconference losses taken by ISU and Texas should be irrelevant when comparing them to KSU and OSU, since both losses came to teams that are much higher rated than all four of these teams. If anything, since the losses were close, they should work in favor of ISU and Texas. But these 4 teams are basically the same.

How do we separate them for ranking? Well, if you don't want to put all 4 teams into a tie with one another (that would be a valid solution), then you should start with head-to-head: look at how these 4 teams did against each other. Texas and Oklahoma State were 2-1 amongst these 4 teams, and KSU and ISU were 1-2. And since Texas defeated Oklahoma State, they go to the front of the line. OSU defeated both KSU and ISU, so they come next, and KSU just beat ISU this week, so the Cyclones go to the bottom of this set of teams.

2019 TipTop 25

My little experiment, a top 25 that began with a preseason ranking based entirely on picking teams at random out of a hat, is now retired for the season. You can check out the last top 25 in that experiment here.

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