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Ranking the Top 25 Teams for the 2015 Season

January 4, 2016

AP poll voters' top 25 ballots will be due right after the National Championship game between #1 Clemson and #2 Alabama, but hopefully they have already started working on their final rankings. Almost all of the teams have now finished their seasons, and with a full week to go before the final game, AP voters have plenty of time to look carefully at all the contenders and get the final top 25 right. To help in that regard, I offer some advice on how certain teams should be ranked (below), but first let's look at the final regular-season AP poll, along with the teams' subsequent bowl results thus far:

1) Clemson 14-0 Defeated #4 Oklahoma 37-17
2) Alabama 13-1 Defeated #3 Michigan State 38-0
3) Michigan State 12-2 Lost to #2 Alabama 38-0
4) Oklahoma 11-2 Lost to #1 Clemson 37-17
5) Stanford 12-2 Defeated #6 Iowa 45-16
6) Iowa 12-2 Lost to #5 Stanford 45-16
7) Ohio State 12-1 Defeated #8 Notre Dame 44-28
8) Notre Dame 10-3 Lost to #7 Ohio State 44-28
9) Florida State 10-3 Lost to #14 Houston 38-24
10) North Carolina 11-3 Lost to #18 Baylor 49-38
11) Texas Christian 11-2 Defeated #15 Oregon 47-41 OT
12) Northwestern 10-3 Lost to 9-4 Tennessee 45-6
13) Oklahoma State 10-3 Lost to #16 Mississippi 48-20
14) Houston 13-1 Defeated #9 Florida State 38-24
15) Oregon 9-4 Lost to #11 Texas Christian 47-41 OT
16) Mississippi 10-3 Defeated #13 Oklahoma State 48-20
17) Michigan 10-3 Defeated #19 Florida 41-7
18) Baylor 10-3 Defeated #10 North Carolina 49-38
19) Florida 10-4 Lost to #17 Michigan 41-7
20) Utah 10-3 Defeated 9-4 Brigham Young 35-28
21) Navy 11-2 Defeated 8-5 Pittsburgh 44-28
22) Louisiana State 9-3 Defeated 7-6 Texas Tech 56-27
23) Wisconsin 10-3 Defeated 8-6 Southern Cal 23-21
24) Temple 10-4 Lost to 10-2 Toledo 32-17
25) Western Kentucky 12-2 Defeated 8-5 South Florida 45-35

Others Receiving Votes (in order from most poll points to least)

Georgia 10-3 Defeated 7-6 Penn State 24-17
Southern Cal 8-6 Lost to #23 Wisconsin 23-21
Brigham Young 9-4 Lost to #20 Utah 35-28
Tennessee 9-4 Defeated #12 Northwestern 45-6
San Diego State 11-3 Defeated 7-6 Cincinnati 42-7
Arkansas 8-5 Defeated 6-7 Kansas State 45-23
Washington State 9-4 Defeated 8-5 Miami (Florida) 20-14
Memphis 9-4 Lost to 7-6 Auburn 31-10
Bowling Green 10-4 Lost to 9-4 Georgia Southern 58-27
South Florida 8-5 Lost to #25 Western Kentucky 45-35
Mississippi State 9-4 Defeated 7-6 North Carolina State 51-28
Toledo 10-2 Defeated #24 Temple 32-17
UCLA 8-5 Lost to 6-7 Nebraska 37-29
Arkansas State 9-4 Lost to 9-4 Louisiana Tech 47-28

Michigan State > Ohio State

Michigan State is 12-2 and just lost 38-0, and Ohio State is 12-1 and just won 44-28, but lest we forget, these 2 teams met in late November, and Michigan State won 17-14 in Columbus. That's why Michigan State played in the Big 10 title game rather than Ohio State, and another win over then-unbeaten Iowa is why MSU made the playoff rather than OSU. Needless to say, MSU's bowl opponent was far tougher than OSU's. Michigan State should remain ranked higher than Ohio State, and hopefully AP poll voters will get this one right.

Stanford

I mentioned Stanford being overrated in my previous comments on the AP poll, and now that Stanford has stomped 12-2 Iowa 45-16 in the Rose Bowl, they will no doubt remain overrated in the final AP poll. Stanford had a great season, finishing 12-2 with the PAC 12 title and that Rose Bowl win. They should be ranked ahead of 12-2 Iowa and 10-3 Notre Dame, the 2 rated teams they defeated. However, I find it dubious that they should be rated higher than 12-2 Michigan State, 12-1 Ohio State, 11-2 Oklahoma, and 11-2 Texas Christian.

The problem is that Stanford took 2 upset losses, to 10-3 Northwestern and 9-4 Oregon, both of whom will be ranked at the bottom of the final top 25, if at all. The Northwestern loss was their opener, so people are tempted to dismiss it because of that, but the Oregon loss came at home in mid-November. 11-2 Texas Christian, meanwhile, just defeated Oregon in their bowl game, so they outdid Stanford there, and the Horned Frogs only took one upset loss this season, to 10-3 Oklahoma State.

Michigan State and Oklahoma each took just 1 upset loss as well, and Ohio State took none, so all of these teams had a better relevant record than did Stanford, and like TCU, Michigan State defeated Oregon this season. And while Stanford defeated 2 teams that will finish ranked in the AP poll, Michigan State and Oklahoma each likely defeated 4.

Houston

I had been contending that 13-1 Houston was slightly underrated (specifically in comparison to North Carolina), but now that they've beaten Florida State 38-24 in the Peach Bowl, I suspect that AP poll voters will overreact and overrate them. Houston obviously had a great season, but let's not forget that they did take a loss to unrated Connecticut late in the season. 12-2 Iowa, meanwhile, did not take an upset loss: both of their losses came to top 5 teams. So Iowa should remain ranked ahead of Houston. And Iowa is just one example. I suspect that several teams will be rated behind Houston that shouldn't be in the final poll.

North Carolina

As alluded to above, I've also been saying for weeks that #10 North Carolina, now 11-3 after their 49-38 "upset" bowl loss to #18 Baylor, is the most overrated team in the AP poll. They won't be nearly so overrated in the final poll, obviously, but I expect that they will still be overrated. When rating this team, AP poll voters need to note that North Carolina has not beaten a single rated team, nor even a team that will be close to rated in the final top 25. UNC's best wins came against a trio of 8-5 ACC teams (Pitt, Duke, and Miami). And the ACC was, of course, by far the weakest of the "major" conferences (41-24 against nonconference opponents so far).

I expect UNC to end up rated #15-19, but they should be rated much nearer to #25.

Florida

10-4 Florida, on the other hand, I fear will be underrated in the final AP poll. 11-3 North Carolina, for example, may have a better straight record, but all 4 of Florida's losses have come to top 25 teams, while UNC took an upset loss to 3-9 South Carolina (a team Florida defeated). And Florida has beaten 3 teams likely to finish ranked in the final top 25 (10-3 Mississippi, 10-3 Georgia, and 9-4 Tennessee), UNC none. There is no question that Florida should be ranked higher than UNC (though I doubt they will be).

Florida vs. Mississippi

I'm guessing that Florida will be ranked about #22 in the final poll, Mississippi about #11, and that is a huge difference given the fact that Florida beat Ole Miss handily this season, 38-10. Florida could viably be ranked higher than Ole Miss because of that win, but on the other hand, Florida has had so many poor performances this season, including every single game they've played since October ended, that I think Ole Miss can also viably be ranked higher than Florida.

Of course, if you do rate Ole Miss higher than Florida, bear in mind that that gives Mississippi three upset losses (to Florida, Arkansas, and Memphis). That does not compare well to 10-3 Baylor, for example, since Baylor took just one upset loss. Likewise, 10-3 Michigan took only 1 upset loss, and in addition, they stomped on Florida, who of course stomped on Ole Miss. Both Baylor and Michigan should be rated higher than Mississippi.

Florida > Tennessee > Georgia

Poor performances notwithstanding, 10-4 Florida should remain ranked ahead of 9-4 Tennessee and 10-3 Georgia, both of whom they've beaten. Especially if Ole Miss is ranked ahead of Florida, because that adds even more value to Florida's 38-10 win over them.

And as I've been saying for weeks, Tennessee should be ranked ahead of Georgia due to their head-to-head win over them. Georgia, despite their nice 10-3 record, has accomplished virtually nothing this season. Like 11-3 North Carolina, they have not beaten a ranked opponent, or even nearly-ranked. On the other hand, all of Georgia's losses have come to teams that should be ranked in the top 25, whereas UNC, again, took an upset loss to 3-9 South Carolina (a team Georgia beat 52-20 two weeks later). So UNC makes one of the few teams here that Georgia should be ranked ahead of. Florida and Tennessee, not so much.

Tennessee > Northwestern > Wisconsin

I suspect that 9-4 Tennessee will be ranked just higher than 10-3 Northwestern in the final AP poll, due to their incredibly dominating 45-6 bowl win over the Wildcats. If not, they should be. But AP poll voters should not forget that 10-3 Northwestern defeated 10-3 Wisconsin in Madison in late November, and that Northwestern should therefore be rated higher than Wisconsin.

Note that 10-3 Georgia compares poorly to both 10-3 Northwestern and 10-3 Wisconsin. Northwestern owns an upset win over a top 10 team (Stanford), and Wisconsin performed better than Georgia (Wisconsin had 3 close wins over unranked opponents, Georgia 5, and Wisconsin did better against Alabama  than Georgia did).

Oregon > Southern Cal > Utah

Here is a very unusual case: 8-6 Southern Cal should be rated higher than 10-3 Utah. Don't be blinded by the illusion of those straight records! I've been saying this for weeks, and USC's subsequent losses to Stanford in the PAC 12 title game and Wisconsin in their bowl game shouldn't change a thing, because we have no reason to believe that Utah would have done better against either opponent.

Southern Cal defeated Utah by an incredibly dominating 42-24. Both teams finished 6-3 in their division, so the head-to-head win gave the division to USC and put them in the PAC 12 title game. The reason USC has 6 losses and Utah has 3 is because USC played 6 games against teams that will be ranked in the final top 25, while Utah played just 2! As you can see, that is a huge difference, greater than even the difference in the number of losses each team took.

USC had to play PAC 12 champion Stanford twice, and Utah did not play them even once. And USC lost by 2 points to a rated team in their bowl game, while Utah won by 7 over an unrated team: not a relevant difference that should favor Utah in comparison. And those games account entirely for the 3-loss difference between the 2 teams. Southern Cal should be rated higher.

Utah had a great start to the season, opening 6-0 with big wins over Michigan and Oregon. However, after that Utah fell apart, and those 2 big wins remain their only wins over rated teams. In addition to getting stomped by USC, Utah lost to unrated Arizona and UCLA (both of whom USC defeated), then barely got by unrated opponents in their last 2 games (Colorado and BYU).

Oregon, of course, belongs rated ahead of Southern Cal due to beating them 48-28. And while Utah stomped on Oregon early in the season, remember that Oregon stomped on USC, who stomped on Utah. And while Oregon took 1 upset loss to an unrated team (9-4 Washington State), and Southern Cal also took 1 (Washington), Utah took 2 upset losses (Arizona and UCLA), and that is exactly why Utah belongs at the bottom of this totem pole of teams. Utah did collect a huge upset win at home over 10-3 Michigan to open the season, but Oregon brought home an even better upset win, at 12-2 Stanford late in the season.

Oklahoma State

In mid-November, Oklahoma State was 10-0 and dreaming of a playoff spot, but now they've lost 3 straight games, all by more than a touchdown, to finish 10-3. I'm thinking that Oklahoma State will wind up ranked about #20 in the final AP poll, and if so, that will be a slight underrating. All 3 of their losses came to teams that are likely to be ranked in the top 14, and they did win 49-29 over Texas Christian, who will be ranked in the top 10. Compare them to 11-2 Navy, who will likely be rated significantly higher in the final AP poll. Unlike OSU, Navy did not beat a ranked team, nor even a team who will be close to ranked.

Western Kentucky

As I've also been saying for weeks, #25 Western Kentucky (12-2) does not belong in the top 25. I'll repeat what I said last time: "They have played 3 major conference teams, and in those games they've won 14-12 over 4-8 Vanderbilt, they've lost 38-35 to 6-6 Indiana, and they've lost 48-20 to #22 LSU. That gives a good idea of their power level: nowhere near the top 25. This rating for this team is a joke."

I do think that 12-2 Western Kentucky will probably have a hard time holding off 10-3 Georgia and 9-4 Tennessee for the last slot in the final AP poll's top 25 (#24 Temple lost their bowl game to open up a slot, so 2 of these 3 should finish ranked). Here's hoping that the AP poll voters will find sense at the last moment and move WKU off their lists.

But just to be clear, let's compare Western Kentucky to Georgia (Tennessee should be rated higher than Georgia, as covered above). As noted, WKU lost to an unranked 6-6 team, whereas Georgia took all 3 of their losses to teams that are likely to finish ranked (9-4 Tennessee, 10-4 Florida, and Alabama). And as noted, WKU barely won by 2 points at Vanderbilt, where Georgia won by 17 a week later.

Of course, the SEC is the top conference again this year, currently 54-12 against nonconference opponents, 8-2 in bowl games. What are the chances of a 2-loss CUSA team being better than a 3-loss SEC team?

Toledo and Appalachian State

I don't think 10-2 Toledo or 11-2 Appalachian State will make the AP poll's final top 25, but just in case, let me assure you that they should not be ranked. Toledo did beat some decent unranked teams in 8-5 Arkansas, 10-4 Bowling Green, and 10-4 Temple, but Toledo also took upset losses to a pair of unranked teams, 8-6 Northern Illinois and 8-5 Western Michigan.

Appalachian State only took 1 upset loss, to 9-4 Arkansas State, but their wins weren't nearly as impressive as Toledo's, the best coming over 9-4 Georgia Southern and 8-5 Ohio.

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