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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: December 6, 2015

1) Clemson 13-0
2) Alabama 12-1
3) Michigan State 12-1
4) Oklahoma 11-1
5) Stanford 11-2
6) Iowa 12-1
7) Ohio State 11-1
8) Notre Dame 10-2
9) Florida State 10-2
10) North Carolina 11-2
11) Texas Christian 10-2
12) Northwestern 10-2
13) Oklahoma State 10-2
14) Houston 12-1
15) Oregon 9-3
16) Mississippi 9-3
17) Michigan 9-3
18) Baylor 9-3
19) Florida 10-3
20) Utah 9-3
21) Navy 9-2
22) Louisiana State 8-3
23) Wisconsin 9-3
24) Temple 10-3
25) Western Kentucky 11-2

Others Receiving Votes
Georgia 9-3
Southern Cal 8-5
Brigham Young 9-3
Tennessee 8-4
San Diego State 9-3
Arkansas 7-5
Washington State 8-4
Memphis 9-3
Bowling Green 10-3
Southern Florida 8-4
Mississippi State 8-4
Toledo 9-2
UCLA 8-4
Arkansas State 9-3

If you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top 25 until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.

For example, 11-2 Stanford is currently ranked #5, far too high given the season so far. The teams right behind them, 12-1 Iowa and 11-1 Ohio State, have lost only to #3 Michigan State, who is ranked higher than Stanford, while Stanford has lost to teams currently ranked #12 and #15, far lower than either Iowa or Ohio State. Heck, Iowa won 40-10 at Northwestern, who beat Stanford 16-6.

However, if Stanford beats Iowa in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day, then the AP poll voters will have been proven correct. Well, to some degree... Stanford has taken 2 upset losses and Iowa none, so Iowa is effectively 2 games better than Stanford for the season, and Stanford beating Iowa would only make up for one of those games.

But while I will not fix the AP poll until the final one in January, I will go ahead and point out problems with the current poll that would be outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more games were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.

Playoff Committee Rankings

Last year, the playoff committee did a better job of ranking teams than the AP poll, though the differences were minor, and the committee still suffered from the same problems the AP poll did-- they relied far too much on teams' straight records when ranking them, and they placed far too much emphasis on the most recent games played for each team. This year, however, the playoff committee has not done a better job than the AP poll overall, and the differences between the two are so minor that the committee seems superfluous, and that is disappointing.

Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final post-bowl top 25, I will not be fully fixing any of their rankings like I will the final AP poll top 25 in January.

Now let's get to commenting on the latest AP poll. The biggest problems in this poll, as is often the case, are head-to-head results being ignored. Last week, I pointed out 12 ignored head-to-head results in the AP poll, and this week I address 14 ignored head-to-head results below: far, far too many. AP poll voters need to pay attention to who actually wins these games: otherwise, what's the point of the games being played at all?

Michigan, Northwestern, and Stanford

Like almost all of the problems I am pointing out this week, I addressed this issue last week, but this week Stanford has become even more grotesquely overrated, to a degree that is highly unusual for the AP poll. That's because 11-2 Stanford has passed up 12-1 Iowa and 11-1 Ohio State, unusual because those teams have better straight records. The AP poll rarely does that unless the teams being passed up are minor conference teams. Making this even more baffling is the fact that Stanford has only beaten one team that is ranked in the AP poll, and they have lost to teams ranked #12 and #15, while Iowa and Ohio State have each lost only to #3 Michigan State. I can only presume that the playoff committee's supposed emphasis on conference championships when rating teams has bled into the minds of AP poll voters, because this rating choice makes no logical sense whatsoever.

Then there is the head-to-head chain in the subtitle above. #17 Michigan (9-3) defeated #12 Northwestern (10-2) 38-0, a score so large that it doesn't leave much room for doubt, and Northwestern defeated #5 Stanford (11-2) 16-6, so in my opinion the AP poll ranked these teams in the opposite order of how they should have been ranked.

Michigan may have one more loss than Northwestern, but that is because Michigan played #3 Michigan State and #7 Ohio State, and Northwestern did not play either team, or anyone ranked that highly. This is just one more case of AP poll voters punishing a team for playing a tougher schedule. Furthermore, Northwestern has repeatedly performed very poorly, beating Ball State by 5 points, Nebraska by 2, Penn State by 2, and Purdue by 7. That's 4 close wins over unranked opponents, compared to 2 for Michigan. And again, 38-0 doesn't leave much room for doubt. If Michigan were to play Northwestern again this week, I'd like to see how many of these AP twits would really be picking Northwestern to win. Or to even come within 2 touchdowns.

Rating Stanford higher than Northwestern is more viable, due to the fact that Northwestern has performed so consistently poorly. Still, performance shouldn't matter as much as wins and losses, and the fact is that Northwestern and Stanford are both 10-2, and Northwestern beat Stanford by more than a touchdown.

And let's compare Michigan to Stanford. Both took an upset loss, Michigan at #20 Utah in their opener and Stanford to #15 Oregon at home in mid-November. I'd say the timing and location of those games favor Michigan, but let's go ahead and call those results equitable. What is not equitable is Stanford's other "upset" loss, which came 16-6 to Northwestern, whom Michigan defeated 38-0. Huge advantage to Michigan. Michigan's other losses came to #3 Michigan State, ranked higher than Stanford, and to #7 Ohio State, who should be ranked higher than Stanford (as covered above). 11-2 Stanford may have the better-looking straight record, but 9-3 Michigan actually has the better relevant record, because Michigan's losses to MSU and OSU are irrelevant when comparing Michigan to Stanford, given that Stanford has beaten no one rated quite that highly.

North Carolina

Much like last week, 11-2 North Carolina is the most overrated team in this top 25. This week they dropped a couple of places, following their loss to Clemson in the ACC title game, to #10, which is a tiny step in the right direction toward where they should be ranked: #21-25 at best. UNC has not beaten anyone, and they lost to a 3-9 team.

Like last week, let's compare them to 12-1 Houston, who now has a better record, but is still rated significantly behind UNC, at #14. Both took an upset loss, Houston at 6-6 Connecticut and UNC at 3-9 South Carolina (who lost to the Citadel). Houston has wins over 9-2 Navy (#21), 10-3 Temple (#24), and 9-3 Memphis (#33), while North Carolina has not beaten any team in the AP poll's top 25, or even a team in the "Others Receiving Votes" section. This is not close, and there is no logical reason at all for North Carolina to be rated higher than Houston.

So why is UNC rated higher? You know why. Because they play in a "major" conference (the ACC, ha!), while Houston does not. But these AP twits can't even be bothered to step back and really look at these teams to see which of them has actually played competitive opponents according to their own top 25!

And Houston is just one example of many teams that should be ranked higher than the Tar Heels. UNC has played exactly one team in the AP poll's own top 39 (counting the "Others Receiving Votes"), the loss to Clemson this week. They have accomplished nothing at all this season. And yet they are ranked #10? Ludicrous.

Texas Christian and Oklahoma State

This is pretty simple: #11 Texas Christian and #13 Oklahoma State are both 10-2, both played extremely comparable (essentially identical) schedules, and OSU destroyed TCU 49-29. That is all you need to know right there. It couldn't be any easier. A pre-school child could easily tell you which team should be ranked higher. Yet AP poll voters, presumably college educated, cannot seem to figure it out. Tip to all AP poll voters: 49 > 29.

But it isn't just AP poll voters. The college football playoff committee, supposedly taking more time and deliberating more deeply on their ratings, went even further, ranking TCU 5 places higher than OSU, more than double the difference between the teams in the AP poll. So, for the playoff committee I'll put it in bold: 49 > 29.

Memphis, Mississippi, and Florida

Covered last week. 9-3 Memphis won 37-24 over 9-3 Mississippi in the middle of the season, and they should be rated higher. As with Oklahoma State and TCU above, it is that simple. Yet Memphis is unrated (#33 in "Others Receiving Votes") and Ole Miss is #16, a gigantic difference that may represent the worst rating in this AP poll.

All 3 of Memphis' losses have come to rated teams: #21 Navy (9-2), #14 Houston (12-1), and #24 Temple (10-3). Ole Miss is rated higher than 2 those teams, but they shouldn't be. Yes, Ole Miss did beat #2 Alabama early in the season, but since then they have lost not only to Memphis, but also to unrated Arkansas (7-5). And they were trounced 38-10 by 10-2 Florida, another team that beat them and yet is mysteriously rated behind Ole Miss, back at #19. I guess AP poll voters just really really love Mississippi this season.

But the Rebels belong behind Memphis. And Navy and Temple. And Florida.

With all their losses coming to rated teams, and a win over #16, Memphis is the most underrated team in the AP poll. #25 Western Kentucky has no wins over rated teams, and they have lost to an unranked opponent, so they have no business at all being rated higher than Memphis. And that is just one example.

Utah and Southern Cal

Covered last week. Utah is ranked #20 because they are 9-3, and Southern Cal is unranked because they are 8-5, but those straight records are extremely misleading, completely the product of USC playing a much tougher schedule, and those rankings are therefore unfair. USC has the better relevant record, and they humiliated Utah 42-24 to boot. USC should be rated ahead of Utah.

The reason USC has 2 more losses is because they played #5 Stanford twice, and Utah did not play them even once, and USC also played #8 Notre Dame in nonconference play. There is a reason that Southern Cal won their division of the PAC 12 and Utah did not: because they outplayed Utah in that part of their schedules that was identical.

Western Kentucky

I touched on this one last week, and that was when Western Kentucky was lurking just outside the top 25 at #27. It need hardly be said that 11-2 Western Kentucky is even more overrated at #25. They have played 3 major conference teams, and in those games they won 14-12 over 4-8 Vanderbilt, they lost 38-35 to 6-6 Indiana, and they lost 48-20 to #22 LSU. That gives a good idea of their power level: nowhere near the top 25. This rating for this team is a joke.

Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Georgia

Covered last week. Here's a long head-to-head chain the AP poll voters couldn't be bothered to pay attention to: 8-4 Texas A&M (unranked completely) won 30-17 over 8-4 Mississippi State (#36), who won 51-50 at 7-5 Arkansas (#31), who won 24-20 at 8-4 Tennessee (#29), who won 38-31 at 9-3 Georgia (#26).

And that's the order in which these teams should be ranked. Pretty easy, because the head-to-head results are right there to show the way. But as you can see, AP poll voters made a horrible mess of it, and in fact they actually rated all five teams in this chain in the opposite order of their head-to-head results! I gotta say, this might be the single most inept handling of a head-to-head chain I have ever seen in any AP poll, and we are talking 80 years of AP poll rankings.

How can A&M and MSU both be 8-4, and A&M beat them handily, and yet MSU has some votes in the poll, and A&M has none at all? But that's not all: A&M also beat #29 Arkansas! And Arkansas, at 7-5, has a worse straight record than both the teams that beat them, A&M and MSU, making it doubly head-scratching that the AP poll ranked the Razorbacks higher than those teams.

Georgia was obviously rated highest of this group of teams due to their 9-3 straight record, never mind that their schedule was a joke. Tennessee was the only one of this group of teams that they played (and again, they lost to the Vols). Georgia did not beat any team in the "Others Receiving Votes" section at all, and they struggled to win 20-13 over 6-6 Auburn, 23-17 over Georgia Southern (overtime!), and 13-7 over 3-9 Georgia Tech in their last 3 games. Georgia is very, very overrated.

UCLA, California, Washington State, Brigham Young, and San Diego State

Covered last week. 8-4 Washington State is rated #32, 8-4 UCLA is rated #37, and 7-5 California is not rated at all. But relative to each other, these teams should be rated like so: UCLA > Cal > WSU.

Let's start with WSU and UCLA. WSU won 31-27 at UCLA, so they had a head-to-head edge on UCLA, but though both teams were 8-4, their schedules were very different, and they were not actually on the same level. UCLA took one of their losses to #27 Southern Cal, whom WSU did not play, so that game is irrelevant when comparing the 2 teams. Disregard it, and UCLA had the better record. But on top of that, WSU was trounced 45-10 in their finale by 6-6 Washington, and on top of that, WSU lost to FCS opponent Portland State to open the season! WSU and UCLA each took one more upset loss, and each got one upset win over a ranked team, but in the end, UCLA was effectively 2 games better than WSU on the season even with WSU's head-to-head win over them.

UCLA also won 24-23 over 9-3 Brigham Young, who is nevertheless ranked higher at #28. Needless to say, they should not be. In fact, with no win of any real value (no one in even the "Others Receiving Votes"), and another loss to 5-7 Missouri, BYU is vastly overrated here and should not even be considered for the top 25.

As for 7-5 Cal vs. 8-4 WSU, well, other than Cal beating them head-to-head, WSU, again, took those ugly losses to 6-6 Washington and to Portland State. And the reason Cal has one more loss is because they played #20 Utah and #27 Southern Cal, and WSU did not play either of those teams.

Cal doesn't have a single vote in the AP poll, but they also trounced 10-3 San Diego State 35-7, and SD State is ranked #30, so all the voters who put the Aztecs on their ballots should not be allowed to vote in the AP poll at all anymore. All 3 of SD State's losses came to teams who are not only unranked, but not even one of the "Others Receiving Votes"!

Counting all the teams in the "Others Receiving Votes" section, this seems like the worst AP poll ranking I've looked at in years, like no real thought went into it at all. It is even worse than it was last week when I made the same claim.

West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Arkansas

Why is 7-5 Arkansas sitting just outside the top 25 at #31? 7-5 West Virginia and 7-5 Texas Tech received no poll votes at all, but West Virginia beat Texas Tech, who beat Arkansas, and they all have the same record, so these 3 teams should be rated as such: West Virginia > Texas Tech > Arkansas. Luckily, it is highly unlikely that Arkansas will find its way into the final top 25 in January, and this issue will therefore be irrelevant, because none of these teams belong in the top 25 anyway.

Bowling Green

I doubt very much that 10-3 Bowling Green, currently far enough back at #34, will get into the final top 25, but just in case, let's be clear: they do not belong. All 3 of their losses have come to unrated teams, and of course they have beaten no one.

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