Home

Comments on the AP College Football Poll: November 29, 2015

1) Clemson 12-0
2) Alabama 11-1
3) Oklahoma 11-1
4) Iowa 12-0
5) Michigan State 11-1
6) Ohio State 11-1
7) Stanford 10-2
8) North Carolina 11-1
9) Notre Dame 10-2
10) Florida State 10-2
11) Texas Christian 10-2
12) Baylor 9-2
13) Northwestern 10-2
14) Oklahoma State 10-2
15) Oregon 9-3
16) Mississippi 9-3
17) Houston 11-1
18) Florida 10-2
19) Michigan 9-3
20) Temple 10-2
21) Utah 9-3
22) Navy 9-2
23) Louisiana State 8-3
24) Southern Cal 8-4
25) Wisconsin 9-3

Others Receiving Votes
Georgia 9-3
Western Kentucky 10-2
Brigham Young 9-3
Arkansas 7-5
Southern Florida 8-4
Memphis 9-3
Tennessee 8-4
Washington State 8-4
UCLA 8-4
Mississippi State 8-4
San Diego State 9-3
Arkansas State 8-3
Toledo 9-2
West Virginia 7-4

If you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top 25 until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.

For example, 11-1 North Carolina is currently ranked #8, even though they have not played a single top 25 team, or even a team in the "Others Receiving Votes" section. They have played no one, and might as well be 0-0. Well, except that they actually lost to one of the garbage teams they played, a 3-9 team in fact, so really we ought to think of UNC as 0-1. Not remotely #8 territory.

However, if North Carolina defeats #1 Clemson in the ACC title game this week, then the AP poll voters will have been proven correct about their #8 rating.

But while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late enough in the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more games were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.

Playoff Committee Rankings

I will also add some comments on the playoff committee rankings to this article after that top 25 comes out on Tuesday, but only if there is anything in those rankings to address that is different than the issues with the AP poll that I am already addressing below. The playoff committee has done a better job of ranking teams than the AP poll has so far, but the differences are minor, and the committee still suffers from the same problems the AP poll does-- they rely far too much on teams' straight records when ranking them, and they place far too much emphasis on the last game played for each team.

Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final post-bowl top 25, I will not be fully fixing any of their rankings like I will the final AP poll top 25 in January.

Now let's get to commenting on the latest AP poll. The biggest problems in this poll, as is often the case, are head-to-head results being ignored. I address 12 wrongfully ignored head-to-head results below, and that is far too many. AP poll voters need to pay attention to who actually wins these games: otherwise, what's the point of the games being played at all?

Michigan, Northwestern, and Stanford

#19 Michigan (9-3) defeated #13 Northwestern (10-2) 38-0, a score so large that it doesn't leave much room for doubt, and Northwestern defeated #7 Stanford (10-2) 16-6, so in my opinion the AP poll ranked these teams in the opposite order of how they should have been ranked.

Michigan may have one more loss than Northwestern, but that is because Michigan played #5 Michigan State and #6 Ohio State, and Northwestern did not play either team, or anyone ranked that highly. This is just one more case of AP poll voters punishing a team for playing a tougher schedule. Furthermore, Northwestern has repeatedly played very poorly, beating Ball State by 5 points, Nebraska by 2, Penn State by 2, and Purdue by 7. That's 4 close wins over unranked opponents, compared to 2 for Michigan. And again, 38-0 doesn't leave much room for doubt. If Michigan were to play Northwestern again this week, I'd like to see how many of these AP twits would really be picking Northwestern to win. Or to even come within 2 touchdowns.

Rating Stanford higher than Northwestern is more viable, due to the fact that Northwestern has performed so consistently poorly. Still, performance shouldn't matter as much as wins and losses, and the fact is that Northwestern and Stanford are both 10-2, and Northwestern beat Stanford by more than a touchdown.

And let's compare Michigan to Stanford. Both took an upset loss, Michigan at #21 Utah in their opener and Stanford to #15 Oregon at home in mid-November. I'd say the timing and location of those games favor Michigan, but let's go ahead and call those results equitable. Stanford defeated 2 ranked opponents, and Michigan defeated only 1, but Stanford also lost 16-6 to Northwestern, whom Michigan defeated 38-0. Huge advantage to Michigan. Michigan's other losses came to #5 Michigan State and #6 Ohio State, both higher-ranked than Stanford, and so both of those losses are irrelevant when comparing Michigan to Stanford. Stanford may have the better-looking straight record, but Michigan actually has the better relevant record.

North Carolina

As previously indicated, 11-1 North Carolina is very overrated at #8. Maybe they'll earn that rating this week with a big win over #1 Clemson, but as of now they have accomplished exactly nothing, and might just as well be considered 0-1 as 11-1.

Let's compare them to 11-1 Houston, who has the same record, but is rated far behind UNC, at #17. Both took an upset loss, Houston at 6-6 Connecticut and UNC at 3-9 South Carolina (who lost to the Citadel). Houston has wins over 9-2 Navy (#21) and 9-3 Memphis (#30), while North Carolina has not beaten any team in the AP poll's top 25, or even a team in the "Others Receiving Votes" section. Performance? Houston has 2 close wins over teams not appearing in the AP poll's top 30, and UNC has 3.

There is no logical reason whatsoever for North Carolina to be rated higher than Houston, let alone 9 places higher!

So why is UNC rated higher? You know why. Because they play in a "major" conference (the ACC, ha!), while Houston does not. But these AP twits can't even be bothered to step back and really look at these teams to see which of them has actually played competitive opponents according to their own top 25!

Texas Christian, Baylor, and Oklahoma State

10-2 Texas Christian (#11), 9-2 Baylor (#12), and 10-2 Oklahoma State (#14) all lost to #3 Oklahoma, and they defeated each other in a circle, TCU beating Baylor 28-21 in overtime at home, Baylor winning 45-35 at OSU, and OSU routing TCU 49-29 at home. As you can see, TCU had by far the weakest win in that circle, and the worst loss as well, yet they are the highest-ranked of these teams. Why? Lastgamitis: their win over Baylor happened this week, and OSU was trounced by Oklahoma this week.

But these teams should be rated more like this: Baylor > Oklahoma State > TCU.

Not only was TCU's win the weakest in the circle amongst these 3 teams, and their loss the worst, but they also performed poorly all too often in other games, posting 4 close wins (touchdown or less) over unrated opponents. Baylor posted just 1 close win over unrated opponents, and they beat OSU by 10 on the road. They performed clearly better than TCU did. And TCU's win over Baylor came at home, in terrible weather, and was not at all decisive, being an overtime result.

Baylor performed easily better than both TCU and OSU, and should be rated highest of these 3 teams. And since OSU trounced TCU, they should be rated ahead of TCU. Of course, if Baylor loses to Texas this week, then the AP poll voters will be proven right in ranking TCU ahead of Baylor, but even in that case, 10-2 Oklahoma State should still be rated ahead of 10-2 TCU, since they beat the Frogs 49-29.

Memphis, Mississippi, and Florida

9-3 Memphis won 37-24 over 9-3 Mississippi in the middle of the season, and they should be rated higher. It is that simple. Yet Memphis is unrated (#30 in "Others Receiving Votes") and Ole Miss is #16, a gigantic difference that may represent the worst rating in this AP poll.

All 3 of Memphis' losses have come to rated teams: #22 Navy (9-2), #17 Houston (11-1), and #20 Temple (10-2). Ole Miss is also rated higher than all of those teams, but they shouldn't be. Yes, Ole Miss did beat #2 Alabama, but since then they have lost not only to Memphis, but also to unrated Arkansas (7-5). And they were trounced 38-10 by 10-2 Florida, who is also mysteriously rated behind Ole Miss, back at #18. I guess AP poll voters just really really love Mississippi this season.

But the Rebels belong behind Memphis. And Navy, and Houston, and Temple. And Florida.

Utah and Southern Cal

Utah is ranked #21 because they are 9-3, and Southern Cal is ranked #24 because they are 8-4, but those straight records are misleading, and those rankings are not fair. USC has the better relevant record, and they defeated Utah 42-24 to boot. And that is a decisive outcome. USC should be rated ahead of Utah.

The reason USC has one more loss is because they played #7 Stanford, and Utah did not, and USC also played #9 Notre Dame in nonconference play.

Even if USC loses to Stanford in the PAC 12 title game this week, as is likely, they should still be rated higher than Utah, because that game is irrelevant when comparing USC to Utah, since Stanford is a top 10 team.

Wisconsin

9-3 Wisconsin is overrated at #25. They're similar to North Carolina in that AP Poll voters are ignoring the fact that they have beaten absolutely no one. No rated team. Not even one of the "Others Receiving Votes." In fact, they haven't even beaten a winning team of any kind! On the plus side, unlike North Carolina, they haven't lost to an unrated team.

West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Arkansas

7-4 West Virginia is underrated (#38 in "Others Receiving Votes"). All 4 of their losses have come to rated teams (and all in the top 14), they beat 7-5 Texas Tech, and the rest of their wins all came by big scores (18 points the closest anyone has come in those games). Beating 7-5 Texas Tech matters because Tech's other 4 losses came to ranked teams (the same top 14 teams that beat WV), and Tech won 35-24 at 7-5 Arkansas, who is inexplicably rated #29 in the "Others Receiving Votes" section.

7-4 West Virginia has a better straight record than 7-5 Arkansas, so it makes no sense at all that they are rated so far behind Arkansas. And 7-5 Texas Tech has the same record as Arkansas. With the head-to-head win, they should also be ranked higher than Arkansas, especially since that win came on the road and by more than a touchdown.

Let's compare West Virginia to the aforementioned Wisconsin. Both took all their losses to ranked teams. But whereas Wisconsin beat no one of any value at all, West Virginia beat 2 winning teams, including Texas Tech, who beat AP #29 Arkansas. And West Virginia beat Maryland 45-6, a team Wisconsin only beat 31-24. No contest here: West Virginia should be rated higher, and AP voters are clearly not really looking closely at the teams they are rating here at the bottom of the top 25. As is the case every year.

Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Georgia

Here's a long head-to-head chain the AP poll voters couldn't be bothered to pay attention to: 8-4 Texas A&M (unranked completely) won 30-17 over 8-4 Mississippi State (#34), who won 51-50 at 7-5 Arkansas (#29) just a week ago, who won 24-20 at 8-4 Tennessee (#30), who won 38-31 at 9-3 Georgia (#26).

And that's the order in which these teams should be ranked. Pretty easy, because the head-to-head results are right there to show the way. But as you can see, AP poll voters made a horrible mess of it, and didn't come close to ranking these teams properly.

How can A&M and MSU both be 8-4, and A&M beat them handily, and yet MSU has some votes in the poll, and A&M has none at all? But that's not all: A&M also beat #29 Arkansas! And Arkansas, at 7-5, has a worse straight record than both the teams that beat them, A&M and MSU, making it doubly head-scratching that the AP poll ranked the Razorbacks higher than those teams.

I am surprised, but pleased, that the AP poll at least correctly rated 7-5 Arkansas higher than 8-4 Tennessee, despite Tennessee's better straight record.

Georgia was obviously rated highest of this group of teams due to their 9-3 straight record, never mind that their schedule was a joke. Tennessee was the only one of this group of teams that they played (and again, they lost to the Vols). Georgia did not beat any team in the "Others Receiving Votes" section at all, and they struggled to win 20-13 over 6-6 Auburn, 23-17 over Georgia Southern (overtime!), and 13-7 over 3-9 Georgia Tech in their last 3 games. Georgia is very overrated.

Western Kentucky

It need hardly be said that 10-2 Western Kentucky is highly overrated at #27. They played 3 major conference teams, and in those games they won 14-12 over 4-8 Vanderbilt, they lost 38-35 to 6-6 Indiana, and they lost 48-20 to #23 LSU. That gives a good idea of their power level: nowhere near the top 25. This rating for this team is a joke.

UCLA, California, Washington State, Brigham Young, and San Diego State

8-4 Washington State is rated #33, 8-4 UCLA is rated #34, and 7-5 California is not rated at all. But these teams should be rated like so: UCLA > Cal > WSU.

Let's start with WSU and UCLA. WSU won 31-27 at UCLA, so they had a head-to-head edge on UCLA, but though both teams were 8-4, their schedules were very different, and they were not actually on the same level. UCLA took one of their losses to #24 Southern Cal, whom WSU did not play, so that game is irrelevant when comparing the 2 teams. Disregard it, and UCLA had the better record. But on top of that, WSU was trounced 45-10 in their finale by 6-6 Washington, and on top of that, WSU lost to FCS opponent Portland State to open the season! WSU and UCLA each took one more upset loss, and each got one upset win over a ranked team, but in the end, UCLA was effectively 2 games better than WSU on the season even with WSU's head-to-head win over them.

UCLA also won 24-23 over 9-3 Brigham Young, who is nevertheless ranked higher at #28. Needless to say, they should not be. In fact, with no win of any real value (no one in even the "Others Receiving Votes"), and another loss to 5-7 Missouri, BYU should not even be considered for a top 25.

As for 7-5 Cal vs. 8-4 WSU, well, other than Cal beating them head-to-head, WSU, again, took those ugly losses to 6-6 Washington and to Portland State. And the reason Cal has one more loss is because they played #21 Utah and #24 Southern Cal, and WSU did not play either of those teams.

Cal doesn't have a single vote in the AP poll, but they also trounced 9-3 San Diego State 35-7, and SD State is ranked #36, so whoever voted for the Aztecs should not be allowed to vote in the AP poll at all anymore. All 3 of SD State's losses came to teams who are not only unranked, but not even one of the "Others Receiving Votes"!

Counting all the teams in the "Others Receiving Votes" section, this seems like the worst AP poll ranking I've looked at in years, like no real thought went into it at all.

2015 TipTop 25

My little experiment, a top 25 that began with a preseason ranking based entirely on picking teams at random out of a hat, is now retired for the season. You can check out the last top 25 in that experiment here.

Home