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Oregon 11-0 2) Auburn 12-0 3) Texas Christian 12-0 4) Wisconsin 11-1 5) Stanford 11-1 6) Ohio State 11-1 7) Michigan State 11-1 8) Arkansas 10-2 9) Boise State 10-1 10) Oklahoma 10-2 11) Louisiana State 10-2 12) Virginia Tech 10-2 13) Nebraska 10-2 14) Nevada 11-1 15) Missouri 10-2 16) Oklahoma State 10-2 17) Alabama 9-3 18) South Carolina 9-3 19) Texas A&M 9-3 20) Florida State 9-3 21) Utah 10-2 22) Mississippi State 8-4 23) West Virginia 8-3 24) Northern Illinois 10-2 25) Hawaii 9-3 Others Receiving Votes Arizona 7-4 Maryland 8-4 Tulsa 9-3 Connecticut 7-4 Navy 8-3 Central Florida 9-3 San Diego State 8-4 North Carolina State 8-4 Air Force 8-4 |
AlabamaThis week's AP poll has a great example of a huge problem I see all too often. Alabama had been ranked #9 last week, and on Saturday they lost to #2 Auburn 28-27. That's a one point loss. As a result, the voters dropped Alabama 8 spots, to #17! This begs the question, what exactly did voters expect their 9th rated team to do against their 2nd rated team? Alabama could not possibly have done any better in that game short of actually winning it. How could any rational person conclude from that result that Alabama must be a lot worse than they had thought they were before the game?Boise State, Louisiana State, and Oklahoma State were all upset by teams ranked behind them, yet they all dropped less far than Alabama (5-6 spots each). How does that make sense? AP poll voters need to stop and think about what they're doing before they turn in their ballots. A quick way to do this would be to look at who they are dropping/raising the most, and think about whether or not the results of the week merit those shifts. Because in the case of Alabama, the result very clearly does not merit an 8 place drop. Where should 'Bama be ranked? I'd say ahead of Virginia Tech and behind LSU (who beat them 24-21). Virginia Tech is 0-1 against the AP poll's own top 25, and they also have that infamous and unforgivable loss to James Madison. Alabama is 2-3 against the top 25, with no losses to unranked opponents (and in fact they have not even had a close win over an unranked opponent, whereas VT has). VT's resume is not even close to Alabama's. What has happened here is that voters looked only at Alabama's 9-3 record, and did not account for the Tide's very rigorous schedule much at all. Alabama could actually be ranked even higher than 12th... Louisiana StateThat's because LSU is also a bit underrated here. Let's compare #11 LSU to #10 Oklahoma (both are 10-2). LSU's losses have come to the #2 and #8 teams, by 7 and 8 points. OU's losses have come to the #15 and #19 teams, by 9 and 14 points. That says it all right there. But LSU has also defeated 3 ranked opponents to OU's 2. Now, LSU has had some poor performances, with 3 wins over unranked opponents coming by a touchdown or less. But that's still better than Oklahoma, who has had 4 such wins-- and 3 of those were over losing teams!What is the argument for Oklahoma being ranked higher? I don't see one at all. And of course, if you move LSU up ahead of Oklahoma, Alabama can be ranked ahead of the Sooners too. And I think they should be. The real problem here is that Oklahoma is simply overrated. Just look at their relevant record: wins against #16 and #20, and losses to #15 and #19. That looks like a team that should be ranked between #15 and #16 at best. But where the Big 12 is concerned, this week provides another great example of AP poll voter silliness, except that in this case it involves something they got right. They were just a week late in getting it right... |
Big 12Last week, Missouri was rated #15 and Nebraska #16. This weekend, each defeated a losing team by 28 points. The result in this week's poll? Missouri remains at #15, but Nebraska has shot up past them, to #13. Strange, eh? Of course, this had nothing to do with the weekend's results-- it was just AP poll voters realizing that they had made a mistake in rating Missouri ahead of Nebraska in the first place (being as how Nebraska beat Mizzou 31-17), and fixing the error. This is far from the first time I've seen this sort of thing, and it's a good example of why I think it would be a good idea to give voters more time before they have to turn in their ballots. Clearly even they know they are making mistakes.The Big 12 has been a problem for voters every week, and this week is no exception-- this time the problem is that Missouri should be ranked ahead of Oklahoma, since both are 10-2 and Missouri beat the Sooners 36-27. Missouri has also performed better than Oklahoma on the season, with only 1 of their wins coming by a touchdown or less, compared to 5 for OU. Furthermore, if you compare Oklahoma to the two teams they tied for the South division championship, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, there really isn't much difference amongst the three teams, so it doesn't make much sense that OU is rated #10, so much higher than OSU and A&M, who are #16 and #19. But as I've said about past problems with the AP's weekly 25, this one will sort itself out. If Oklahoma wins the Big 12 title game, voters will be vindicated, and if OU loses, then the Sooners will drop back behind Missouri anyway. It should be noted, however, that even if Oklahoma wins the Big 12 title game, rating Missouri ahead of them would still be a logically valid choice (though I am certain no voter will do so). Little Big TeamsLast week I jumped the gun too quickly in decrying the "little big teams" at the bottom of the poll, erroneously stating that it would be "ridiculous" to rank them at season's end. Well, then this weekend Southern Cal lost to Notre Dame (who has already been beaten by Navy and Tulsa), and much more baffling, Iowa lost to Minnesota (and since Iowa beat Michigan and Penn State, this poisons the entire middle of the Big Ten). The result? Those little big teams no longer look like such poor options.This is exactly why I wait until the end of the season to bother fixing the AP poll's top 25. Because until then, you just don't know what is going to happen. However, I still don't like Northern Illinois being ranked, and for the same reasons I pointed out last week. They've been running up some giant scores the last few weeks, but their schedule makes them a nonentity. As far as I am concerned, they are 1-2 (beating Minnesota and losing to Iowa State and Illinois), and will likely remain so through the end of the season (since they are unlikely to play a decent opponent). NIU has 2 losses to unranked opponents. San Diego State has only 1 such loss. SDSU lost to #3 TCU by 5 (the closest anyone has come to them), to #15 Missouri by 3, and to #21 Utah by 4. And they beat 8-4 Air Force. In fact, Air Force looks like a better option than NIU also. Their only loss to an unranked opponent is to SDSU. And they defeated Navy. In fact, Navy is closer to being ranked than Air Force is, and they should not be. AP poll voters-- don't just look at the straight record of these teams. You must account for who they played. Look at who they've beaten and who they've lost to. NIU is 10-2 because they play in the MAC. SDSU and AF are 8-4 because they don't. Period. |
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