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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: November 21, 2010

1) Oregon 10-0
2) Auburn 11-0
3) Boise State 10-0
4) Texas Christian 11-0
5) Wisconsin 10-1
6) Louisiana State 10-1
7) Stanford 10-1
8) Ohio State 10-1
9) Alabama 9-2
10) Oklahoma State 10-1
11) Michigan State 10-1
12) Arkansas 9-2
13) Virginia Tech 9-2
14) Oklahoma 9-2
15) Missouri 9-2
16) Nebraska 9-2
17) Texas A&M 8-3
18) South Carolina 8-3
19) Nevada 10-1
20) Arizona 7-3
21) North Carolina State 8-3
22) Florida State 8-3
23) Utah 9-2
24) Iowa 7-4
25) Mississippi State 7-4

Others Receiving Votes
Northern Illinois 9-2
West Virginia 7-3
Tulsa 8-3
Southern Cal 7-4
Miami-Florida 7-4
Hawaii 8-3
Navy 8-3
Florida 7-4
Central Florida 8-3
Southern Miss 8-3
Penn State 7-4
Ohio 8-3
Oregon State 5-5

As I said in my comments on last week's AP college football poll, I will not be fixing the AP poll until after the final edition is released in January. In the meantime, I will just be commenting on some of the poll's more dubious ranking choices.

With games still to be played, most of these dubious choices will sort themselves out, one way or the other. For example, as I said last week, if the season were over now, with no more games to be played, then I would think that Oklahoma (now #14) has to be ranked behind Texas A&M (#17), who beat the Sooners 33-19. However, the season is not over, and if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State this Saturday, or if Texas A&M loses to Texas on Thursday, then the AP voters will be vindicated. For now, those voters clearly believe that Oklahoma's losses were both upsets (OU also lost to Missouri, ranked right behind them). Time will tell if they are right.

I also commented on 10-1 Michigan State (#11) being ranked behind 10-1 Wisconsin (#5), whom the Spartans beat 34-24. But I noted that a close win over Purdue (let alone a loss) would be damaging enough to MSU's performance to make ranking Wisconsin higher a valid choice. And that is exactly what happened. Still, I find it strange that MSU is ranked that far behind Wisconsin. Most dubious in that regard is the team that is ranked directly ahead of MSU...

Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State and Michigan State both took their one loss to a lower-ranked team, and each has one win over a ranked opponent. But Michigan State's big win came by 10 over #5 Wisconsin, while OSU's was by 3 over #17 Texas A&M. Advantage MSU.

But Arkansas, 9-2 and #12, has an even stronger argument for being ranked ahead of OSU. Arkansas may have a worse straight record, but both of their losses came to teams ranked ahead of OSU, whereas OSU lost to a team ranked behind Arkansas. Furthermore, Arkansas has defeated 3 rated opponents to OSU's 1. In fact, even if Oklahoma State wins out (beating Oklahoma, winning the Big 12 title game, and winning the Fiesta Bowl over the Big East champ), it is highly unlikely that they will have a better relevant record than Arkansas. They will just have a better straight record, "earned" by playing a weaker schedule.

The Rest of the Big 12

After Oklahoma State, there is a mess amongst the next four Big 12 teams, all ranked consecutively in this week's AP poll: #14 Oklahoma, #15 Missouri, #16 Nebraska, and #17 Texas A&M. As I've said, I think Oklahoma belongs ranked behind Texas A&M. But that problem will take care of itself this week, because if OU loses to OSU, they'll drop behind A&M, and if they beat OSU, well, maybe that shows that the writers were right to begin with. Still, I'd rather the writers wait until OU proves themselves instead of merely assuming that OU's losses were just upsets.

9-2 Nebraska should also be ranked ahead of 9-2 Missouri, having beaten the Tigers 31-17.

Texas A&M may be the best of these teams. They have an extra loss because they played #12 Arkansas, and the others did not play a nonconference opponent nearly as good. If the season were over right now, I think that the following are the two most logical ways to rank these 4 teams relative to each other:

Texas A&M >9-6> Nebraska >31-17> Missouri >36-27> Oklahoma
OR
Nebraska >31-17> Missouri >30-9> Texas A&M >33-19> Oklahoma

The Bottom of the Top 25

Several teams at the bottom of the poll seem overrated to me, placed where they are primarily on the "strength" of nice records against weak schedules: #21 North Carolina State, #22 Florida State, and #23 Utah. I don't see any logical reason for #25 Mississippi State to be ranked behind any of them (or #20 Arizona for that matter). But most of this, I suspect, will sort itself out over the next week or two anyway.

Other teams I'm thinking may be better than the aforementioned trio: Iowa, Penn State, Michigan, Illinois, and Northwestern (I think the Big Ten is much better than usual this year). But we'll know more after the bowl games.

Little Big Teams Creeping Up

Speaking of building nice records on weak schedules, a plethora of overrated Little Big Teams is dominating the "Also Receiving Votes" section, and some of these teams will unfortunately worm their way into the final AP top 25 after beating bad bowl opponents: Northern Illinois, West Virginia (the Big East is awful enough this season to call them a Little Big Team), Tulsa, Navy, Central Florida, Southern Miss (I don't list Hawaii amongst them because I think they could be a legitimate top 25 team). Ranking any of these teams would be a kind of blind affirmative action. And ridiculous.

Let's start with 9-2 Northern Illinois, poised right outside the top 25 at #26. NIU has beaten every MAC team they've played. But how did they do against BCS opponents? Well, they played 3, beating 2-9 Minnesota and losing to 5-7 Iowa State and 6-5 Illinois. Based on those games, one could logically and fairly conclude that NIU would likely finish about 4-8 if they played in a major conference. They should not even be considered for a top 25 slot.

I guess West Virginia is a token Big East selection, but they aren't even leading the awful Big East, so I have no idea what they are doing at #27 (Pitt leads the Big East, and Connecticut has head-to-head wins over both Pitt and WV).

Tulsa has 2 losses to unranked teams and lost to Oklahoma State 65-28. Navy, Central Florida, and Southern Miss have similar resumes.

None of these teams should be ranked, and because none of them is apt to be playing a decent bowl opponent, none of them should finish ranked in January. But some of them will.

Of course, I'll be here to kick 'em to the curb when I fix the final AP poll, so no worries.

Always remember-- to be the best, you have to beat the best. Or at least someone. Start with beating Iowa State, then we can talk about a place in the top 25...

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