Home

2018 TipTop 25 Week Four

Tulane is the first school picked at random from my hat

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Tulane was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but they lost their opener 23-17 in overtime to previously unranked Wake Forest, so their stay at the top was brief.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Our New #1

Well, it was inevitable, wasn't it? Alabama is our new king of the hill, and at this point it is hard to conceive of anyone knocking them off their perch. Alabama was not ranked in the preseason top 50, but they dropped a hydrogen bomb on #8 Mississippi last week, 62-7 on the road, and entered the rankings at #3. This week they make the jump to #1 after manhandling #17 Texas A&M 45-23. Our previous #1, Virginia Tech, was embarrassed 49-35 at unranked Old Dominion, and #2 Central Florida hasn't played anyone of value yet. Routing a second straight ranked opponent moves the Crimson Tide past them.

TipTop 25 After Week Four Games

Last week's top 25 saw a huge shake-up, and this week sees much the same. Five ranked teams took upset losses this week, including #1 and #4, and 3 nearly-ranked teams were also upset. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Alabama	4-0	3	Won 45-23 over #17 Texas A&M (now #27)
#2	Central Florida	3-0	2	Won 56-36 over Florida Atlantic
#3	Louisiana State	4-0	6	Won 38-21 over Louisiana Tech
#4	North Carolina State	3-0	7	Won 37-20 at Marshall
#5	Kentucky	4-0	11	Won 28-7 over #19 Mississippi State
#6	Stanford	4-0	8	Won 38-31 in OT at #16 Oregon (now #11)
#7	Duke	4-0	9	Won 55-13 over an FCS team
#8	Oklahoma	4-0	5	Won 28-21 in OT over unranked Army
#9	Ohio State	4-0	10	Won 49-6 over Tulane
#10	Auburn	3-1	15	Won 34-3 over Arkansas
#11	Oregon	3-1	16	Lost 38-31 in OT to #8 Stanford (now #6)
#12	Georgia	4-0	23	Won 43-29 at #28 Missouri
#13	Clemson	4-0	12	Won 49-21 at Georgia Tech
#14	Washington	3-1	18	Won 27-20 over unranked Arizona State (now #21)
#15	North Texas	4-0	20	Won 47-7 at Liberty
#16	West Virginia	3-0	22	Won 35-6 over Kansas State
#17	Colorado	3-0	26	Did not play
#18	San Diego State	3-1	Unranked	Won 23-20 in OT over Eastern Michigan (now #33)
#19	Florida	3-1	Unranked	Won 47-21 at Tennessee
#20	Buffalo	4-0	Unranked	Won 42-13 at Rutgers
#21	Arizona State	2-2	Unranked	Lost 27-20 at #18 Washington
#22	Michigan State	2-1	Unranked	Won 35-21 at #13 Indiana (now #24)
#23	Utah State	3-1	Unranked	Won 42-32 over Air Force
#24	Indiana	3-1	13	Lost 35-21 to Michigan State (now #22)
#25	Virginia	3-1	14	Won 27-3 over Louisville

Notes on Changes to This Week's TipTop 25

Although Clemson won big this week, several teams passed them up due to Texas A&M's big loss at Alabama. Clemson only won 28-26 at Texas A&M earlier this year, so A&M's fall from the top 25 damages Clemson's ranking as well.

Michigan State's 35-21 win at Indiana, previously ranked #13, had a huge impact on the ratings. Michigan State had previously lost at Arizona State, who gave then-#18 Washington a good game on the road this week, and ASU had previously lost to San Diego State. All of those teams benefit from Michigan State's big win. San Diego State's 1 loss came to #6 Stanford, but the big key for the Aztecs returning to the top 25 is the fact that they were ranked #10 in the preseason.

Similarly, Florida's return to the top 25 is largely based on the fact that they were ranked #12 in the preseason. Their 1 loss, 27-16 to Kentucky, is not looking so bad now that the Wildcats have beaten another ranked team and have risen to #5. Florida has been dominating in the rest of their games.

Buffalo is another team that moves into the top 25 based mostly on being ranked in the preseason (#21). They had dropped out due to a pair of close wins over unranked opponents, but Buffalo is still unbeaten (4-0), and one of those close wins, over Eastern Michigan, is not looking so bad since EMU lost another close game to San Diego State (now #18) this week. EMU is 2-2 and I have moved them into the "Close to the Top 25" section (covered next). EMU was ranked #43 in the preseason.

Utah State was ranked #30 in the preseason, which aids their entrance into this week's top 25. They are 3-1, the loss coming in a close game at now-#22 Michigan State, and they have won each of the rest of their games by more than a touchdown.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Penn State
#27 Texas A&M
#28 Mississippi
#29 Texas Tech
#30 Oklahoma State
#31 Boise State
#32 Army
#33 Eastern Michigan
#34 South Carolina
#35 South Florida
#36 Notre Dame
#37 Appalachian State
#38 Michigan
#39 Hawaii
#40 Syracuse

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This week we have just 1 game featuring ranked teams, #25 Virginia at #4 North Carolina State. But we have a bunch of ranked teams facing nearly-ranked opponents this week: #28 Mississippi at #3 Louisiana State, #29 South Carolina at #5 Kentucky, #6 Stanford at #36 Notre Dame, #9 Ohio State at #26 Penn State, #40 Syracuse at #13 Clemson, #16 West Virginia at #29 Texas Tech, and #32 Army at #20 Buffalo. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

Home