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2018 TipTop 25 Week Three

 Tulane is the first school picked at random from my hat

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Tulane was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but they lost their opener 23-17 in overtime to previously unranked Wake Forest, so their stay at the top was brief.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Virginia Tech Still #1

MS Paint of Virginia Tech players 2018

I pulled the Hokies out of my hat for the #3 slot in the preseason, but in the first week of games, #1 Tulane lost and #2 Illinois struggled to win 31-24, both against teams that were not ranked in the preseason top 50, clearing the way for Virginia Tech to take the top spot. This week Virginia Tech's game was canceled due to Hurricane Florence. Meanwhile, the top team that VT has beaten, Florida State, was routed by unranked Syracuse this week, and that leaves the Hokies with no wins of note, so their #1 ranking still rests entirely on their high preseason ranking.

TipTop 25 After Week Three Games

Last week's top 25 had seen relatively little change from the previous week's top 25, but this week we have a huge shake-up. A big 8 ranked teams took upset losses this week, including 6 of our top 11 teams, and 3 nearly-ranked teams were also upset. Every year, it is amazing to see how quickly the major conference teams separate themselves from the "Little Big" teams. This year, our preseason top 25 featured 13 major conference teams, and now, after just 3 full weeks of play, that number is 22. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:
Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Virginia Tech 2-0 1 Did not play
#2 Central Florida 2-0 4 Did not play
#3 Alabama 3-0 Unranked Won 62-7 at #8 Mississippi (now unranked)
#4 Oklahoma State 3-0 Unranked Won 44-21 over #3 Boise State
#5 Oklahoma 3-0 5 Won 37-27 at Iowa State
#6 Louisiana State 3-0 6 Won 22-21 at #18 Auburn
#7 North Carolina State 2-0 9 Did not play
#8 Stanford 3-0 12 Won 30-9 over an FCS team
#9 Duke 3-0 32 Won 40-27 at #10 Baylor (now unranked)
#10 Ohio State 3-0 13 Won 40-28 at Texas Christian
#11 Kentucky 3-0 15 Won 48-10 over an FCS team
#12 Clemson 3-0 Unranked Won 38-7 over #7 Georgia Southern
#13 Indiana 3-0 16 Won 38-10 over Ball State
#14 Virginia 2-1 20 Won 45-31 over Ohio
#15 Auburn 2-1 18 Lost 22-21 to #6 Louisiana State
#16 Oregon 3-0 22 Won 35-22 over San Jose State
#17 Texas A&M 2-1 Unranked Won 48-10 over Louisiana-Monroe
#18 Washington 2-1 Unranked Won 21-7 at Utah
#19 Mississippi State 3-0 Unranked Won 56-10 over #31 Louisiana
#20 North Texas 3-0 23 Won 44-17 at Arkansas
#21 Washington State 3-0 25 Won 59-24 over an FCS team
#22 West Virginia 2-0 26 Did not play
#23 Georgia 3-0 27 Won 49-7 over Middle Tennessee
#24 Minnesota 3-0 Unranked Won 26-3 over Miami (Ohio)
#25 Fresno State 2-1 Unranked Won 38-14 at UCLA

Notes on Changes to This Week's TipTop 25

Alabama enters the top 25 at #3 after annihilating Ole Miss, previously ranked #8, 62-7. The only reason Virginia Tech and Central Florida are ranked higher than Alabama is because they were both ranked in the preseason top 10, and no one has come close to them yet (Alabama was not ranked in the preseason top 50). But neither has a notable win, and neither plays a good team next week, while Alabama is playing another ranked team, #17 Texas A&M, so if the Tide wins that one big, they will likely take the top spot next week.

Boston College, ranked #24 last week, defeated Wake Forest, ranked #11, 41-34 on the road. However, both were hurt by #19 Tulane's loss at unranked Alabama Birmingham. That's because Wake Forest had beaten Tulane in overtime in their opener. That close result is now a bad one, sinking Wake Forest, and BC's close win over Wake is thus also a dubious result. So BC has now dropped to just outside the top 25, and Wake Forest and Tulane are now discarded entirely.

Similarly, Colorado (#14 last week) was hurt by Nebraska's loss at home to Troy, since Colorado had barely beaten Nebraska the week before. Like Boston College, Colorado is now sitting just outside the top 25.

I moved Virginia a notch ahead of Auburn not just because Auburn lost this week, but because the Cavaliers had been ranked higher in the preseason.

South Florida had been #28 last week, and they beat #17 Illinois this week, which would normally put USF into the top 25. However, Illinois had previously struggled to beat Kent State, and this week unranked Penn State romped on Kent 63-10, so Illinois is now a worthless opponent. As such, USF still waits outside the top 25.

Akron's close win at unranked Northwestern drops them out of the top 25.

Notre Dame defeated Vanderbilt, ranked #2 last week, but all 3 of Notre Dame's wins have been close, and 2 of them were over unranked opponents, so Notre Dame does not enter the rankings. One of Notre Dame's close wins was 24-16 over Ball State, a team #13 Indiana just beat 38-10.

Texas A&M enters the rankings on the coattails of Clemson (now #12), who just beat Georgia Southern (previously ranked #7) 38-7. The previous week, A&M lost just 28-26 to Clemson.

I moved Washington into the rankings because they have been impressive, and their season-opening loss to #15 Auburn was a close one.

And finally, I moved Minnesota and Fresno State into the bottom of the top 25 because Fresno State was ranked #40 in the preseason. Minnesota had previously beaten Fresno State 21-14, and both teams have been impressive in their other games (both won big this week).

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Colorado
#27 Akron
#28 Missouri
#29 Boston College
#30 Penn State
#31 South Florida
#32 Notre Dame
#33 Vanderbilt
#34 Michigan

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This week we have 3 games featuring ranked teams: #17 Texas A&M at #3 Alabama, #8 Stanford at #16 Oregon, and #19 Mississippi State at #11 Kentucky. Also, #23 Georgia visits #28 Missouri. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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